This season, I beat one argument to death when talking about the National League – half the league stunk and half the league was good. There wasn’t much mediocrity in the league. Through three weeks, it appears that prophecy is coming through – four teams have risen to the top of the crop in the National League’s playoff odds, while seven teams are already hanging on by a thread.
The National League’s three division leaders are rolling. The Nationals are 14-4, good for the best record in baseball. At 14-5, the Cubs are right behind them. Then, there are the Dodgers out in the NL West, off to a 12-7 start as the rest of the division beats itself up.
Those three teams all have a better than 85% chance at making the playoffs via both Baseball Prospectus and Fangraphs. The fourth NL team standing out from the pack is the Mets at 10-7, who have an 84.1% playoff chance per Fangraphs and an 81.2% chance of making the playoffs per BP.
So that’s four National League clubs with a better than 80% chance of making the Postseason – pretty good for those four teams.
And then…there’s the dregs of the National League. The Braves, Marlins, and Padres are all playing baseball at a sub-.400 clip, collecting records of 4-14, 6-11, and 7-12, respectively. That trio of teams, along with the Diamondbacks, Rockies, Reds, Brewers, and Phillies, has an under 10% chance of making the playoffs according to Fangraphs and all but the Diamondbacks are under 10% per BP. Half of the league has a snowball’s chance in hell of making the playoffs, and it’s just April 25th.
The tussle for the final playoff spot in the National League looks like it’s going to come down to three or four teams – those Diamondbacks, the Giants, Cardinals, and Pirates. Arizona has the lowest playoffs odds of the quartet (8.6% Fangraphs, 15.5% BP), while the other three teams range from 28.7% (Pirates, Fangraphs) to 49.2% (Cardinals, Fangraphs).
A lot can still happen – for instance, if Bryce Harper suffers a season-ending injury this week, things will look a lot more precarious for Washington. But it’s still pretty amazing how quickly the National League top teams and bottom feeders separated like oil and water – we’re only three weeks into the damn season!
That hasn’t happened in the American League. BP only has two teams (Twins, Angels) with a sub-10% chance of making the playoffs, and Fangraphs has just one (Twins). Meanwhile, no AL team is above 80% in either projection system, and the Indians are the lone American League team above 50% on both Fangraphs and BP.
There’s still a lot of baseball left to be played, but if you’re a neutral fan, the American League may provide a lot more drama and excitement over the final five-plus months of the regular season.
