Pablo Sandoval FORT MYERS, – MARCH 14: Pablo Sandoval #48 of the Boston Red Sox knocks the ball down at third base on the ground ball from Jason Rogers (not in photo) of the Pittsburgh Pirates an makes the play to first base for the out during the fourth inning of the Spring Training Game on March 14, 2016 at Jet Blue Park at Fenway South, Florida. The Pirates defeated the Red Sox 3-1. (Photo by Leon Halip/Getty Images)

On Monday, Pablo Sandoval’s tenure with the Boston Red Sox took another hard left turn when it was revealed the third baseman’s impending shoulder surgery likely would end his season.

Sandoval made $17 million in 2015 for a below-average season of production, and is making $17 million this year for a season that will likely only include seven plate appearances. He’s still owed a total of $58 million over the next three seasons. Needless to say, this contract hasn’t worked out very well at all for the Red Sox.

But when thinking about his contract, I came to a startling conclusion: Many of the long-term contracts signed by third basemen simply don’t work out well. Check out these signings, all of which were for more than five years and $75 million, in recent years.

— Alex Rodriguez, 10 years, $275 million
— Miguel Cabrera, eight years, $152.3 million
— David Wright, eight years, $138 million
— Evan Longoria, 10 years, $135.6 million
— Kyle Seager, seven years, $100 million
— Ryan Zimmerman, six years, $100 million
— Pablo Sandoval, five years, $95 million
— Adrian Beltre, five years, $80 million
— Michael Young, five years, $80 million
— Aramis Ramirez, five years, $75 million

Of these contracts, only those signed by Beltre, Cabrera, Ramirez, and Young have expired — and saying Beltre’s deal expired is a bit of a stretch, since he also had a club option for 2016 that was exercised. Cabrera also signed another extension with the Tigers after his old deal expired, but since he’s a first baseman now, we can pretend it didn’t happen.

But the deals for Rodriguez, Wright, Longoria, Seager, Zimmerman, and Sandoval are all on the books through at least next year. Rodriguez’s expires next year, but all of the other deals go through at least 2019. That’s a handful.

The production level hasn’t matched the money paid in many of these contracts.

Alex Rodriguez, better than Pablo Sandoval
BOSTON, MA – APRIL 30: Alex Rodriguez #13 of the New York Yankees ducks away from a close pitch in the third inning against the Boston Red Sox at Fenway Park on April 30, 2016 in Boston, Massachusetts. (Photo by Jim Rogash/Getty Images)

Rodriguez’s deal started in 2008, and he started off the contract with three straight 30-homer seasons. He played 99 games in 2011, hit just .272/.353/.430 in 122 games in 2012, and played in only 44 games in 2013. In 2014, he missed the entire year serving a PED suspension (thanks, Biogenesis!) and returned to launch 33 homers in 2015. So far this year, he’s hitting .203/.286/.464 in 19 games.

Cabrera’s contract was an unquestioned success for the Tigers. The deal started in 2008, and he homered at least 30 times in the first six seasons of the contract. He won the AL Triple Crown in 2012, and won the AL MVP award in both 2012 and 2013. Of course, the Tigers then moved him to first base and signed Cabrera to an eight-year, $248 million contract that would take effect starting with his age 33 season, helpfully negating the savings from that first contract.

Next up is David Wright. After playing in at least 140 games in all but one year from 2005 to 2012, Wright hasn’t hit the 140-game plateau since his deal went into effect for the 2013 season. He was still excellent in 2013, hitting 18 homers, stealing 17 bases, and putting together a .307/.390/.514 line in 112 games. Wright’s stats fell in 2014 and he homered just eight times in 134 games, playing in just 38 games a year ago while dealing with spinal stenosis. That condition will plague Wright for the rest of his career, and he’s hit .266/.383/.468 in 20 games this season.

Evan Longoria, better than Pablo Sandoval
PORT CHARLOTTE, FL – MARCH 9: Third baseman Evan Longoria #3 of the Tampa Bay Rays makes the throw to first base for the out on Tony Sanchez of the Toronto Blue Jays during the second inning of an MLB spring training game on March 9, 2016 at Charlotte Sports Park in Port Charlotte, Florida. (Photo by Brian Blanco/Getty Images)

The Rays picked up Evan Longoria’s three affordable club options on his ridiculous six-year, $17.5 million contract at the the end of the 2012 season, and tacked another six years onto the end of that contract (which still ran through the 2013 season, options be damned). The new money on the deal hasn’t kicked in yet, but this is the fourth season for the Rays since picking up all the options. Longoria missed a total of four games from 2013 to 2015, but his production seemed to fall off over those three years, hitting .264/.331/.446 after slashing .276/.361/.516 over his first five seasons in baseball. The health is encouraging, but Longoria hasn’t made an All-Star Team since 2010, also the last year he won a Gold Glove.

The jury is still out on Kyle Seager’s contract, since he just started year two of his seven-year, $100 million deal. Seager’s production was right around his career average last year, as he launched a career-high 26 homers to go with a .266/.328/.451 line. His career triple-slash? .260/.326/.433. We’ll talk about this one down the road.

Ryan Zimmerman initially had a very friendly five-year, $45 million extension with the Nationals that he completely outplayed. Then, the team tacked on another six years and $100 million with two years still left on that original deal, and everything fell apart. 2016 is the third year of that six-year extension, and Zimmerman has played a total of 156 games over those first two years. He’s also a first baseman instead of a third baseman now, which helps negate much of the value from his once world-class defense at the hot corner. Since 2014, Zimmerman is hitting .257/.319/.444 with 22 homers in just 176 games. He never had a batting average or on-base percentage that low in any season from 2006 to 2013, and his slugging percentage dropped that low just twice.

We’ve already talked about Sandoval. His contract has been a disaster.

Adrian Beltre, better than Pablo Sandoval
ANAHEIM, CALIFORNIA – APRIL 09: Adrian Beltre #29 of the Texas Rangers is congratulated by teammates in the dugout after hitting a solo homerun during the fourth inning of a baseball game between the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim and Texas Rangers at Angel Stadium of Anaheim on April 9, 2016 in Anaheim, California. (Photo by Sean M. Haffey/Getty Images)

Adrian Beltre’s five-year, $80 million contract with the Rangers, increased to six years and $96 million after an option for 2016 vested, has been an unquestioned success. Beltre logged just 525 plate appearances in year one of the deal, but has broken the 600 plate appearance mark in each year since. He crossed the 30-homer mark three times, made a trio of All-Star Teams, took home two Gold Glove awards, and finished in the top 15 of AL MVP voting in all five of his seasons with the Rangers. His triple-slash with Texas, including 2016 so far? .309/.357/.513. Now that’s what I call production.

Michael Young’s deal with the Rangers, which preceded Beltre’s contract, didn’t work out all that well. He moved from shortstop to third base for the first two years of the deal. Then Beltre came to town and Young became a highly paid DH/first baseman. He couldn’t hit during year four of the deal, and his salary was dumped onto the Phillies before the 2013 season. He couldn’t hit, couldn’t play third base, and retired after the season. Triple-slash in the five years of the contract? .300/.346/.440 with 70 homers. Young did make a pair of AL All-Star Teams over the life of that contract and received MVP votes in two years, but overall, was mediocre.

Finally, Aramis Ramirez. He was a monster during the first two years of his extension with Chicago, hit well but played in just 82 games in year three, struggled in year four, and was back to killing the ball in year five. Over the life of the contract, Ramirez hit .292/.357/.510 with 119 homers, picking up two top 15 NL MVP finishes, one NL All-Star nod, and one NL Silver Slugger. The Cubs will take that, even if the team won zero playoff games during the life of the contract.

With 10 contracts to study, what conclusions can we come to? Most of the deals fell apart after the midway point, including Cabrera’s, which was absolutely sterling for the first six seasons. The only contract so far that we really can’t make some sort of judgment about is Seager’s, since it’s just one year old and can go in multiple directions.

PITTSBURGH, PA - APRIL 13:  Miguel Cabrera #24 of the Detroit Tigers chats with fans while waiting on deck during the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on April 13, 2016 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images)
PITTSBURGH, PA – APRIL 13: Miguel Cabrera #24 of the Detroit Tigers chats with fans while waiting on deck during the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at PNC Park on April 13, 2016 in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. (Photo by Justin Berl/Getty Images)

The contracts for Cabrera and Beltre were successes. Ramirez’s deal was mostly a success, as is Longoria’s so far (though the Rays probably expect a lot more). The Young deal was a little from column A and a little from column B, while Wright’s back condition will ultimately determine what we make of his deal. Rodriguez’s contract turned into a sideshow after three seasons, and Zimmerman’s looked bad from the beginning and looks worse now.

Of the 10 contracts, that leaves us with three unquestioned failures, two major successes, one that we still don’t know about, two that are active which have mixed the good with the bad, and two that have expired which mixed good with bad.

One thing immediately comes to mind with the contracts that weren’t successes: the players had to move off of third base right away for one reason or another. That seems to bode well for someone like Seager, Manny Machado, or Nolan Arenado, but maybe not so much for someone like Nick Castellanos. It’s also pretty interesting how many of these contracts were extensions rather than free agent deals. Only Beltre, Ramirez, and Sandoval were signed as free agents (though Cabrera inked his extension with the Tigers before playing a game with them after being dealt from the Marlins).

What’s all this mean? Well, third base isn’t a “safe” position to sink money into, and is just like every other position on the diamond. The position may be on the upswing across baseball after several down seasons, but that doesn’t mean teams should think of their above-average player at the position as a long-term cornerstone. They could be an albatross sooner rather than later.

About Joe Lucia

I hate your favorite team. I also sort of hate most of my favorite teams.