The NFL has the draft; the NBA has free agency, which will officially begin the second the calendar turns to July 1. It’s the time of year when every fan base and franchise convinces itself that there’s hope for the future and when basketball fans all over the world get to play fantasy GM. And this year, thanks to that massive new TV contract, which led to a giant spike in the NBA salary cap, nearly every team in the league is flush with cap space.
Who will wind up where? Which teams have the most to gain and lose? Here are the five most intriguing storylines to pay attention to with the league’s new year just around the corner.
Where Will Kevin Durant Go?
This, obviously, is the most important domino, and none of the others ones will fall until KD makes his decision. If you’re reading this, then you’re likely familiar with the teams Durant is considering.
The full @KDTrey5 meeting sked: OKC Thursday, GSW/Clippers Friday, Spurs/Celtics Saturday, Miami on Sunday, per source. That’s the list.
— David Aldridge (@davidaldridgedc) June 30, 2016
If Durant wants to win a championship, his top options are remaining in OKC or heading west to Golden State. Miami is intriguing, too, given that they play in the East. That said, Durant is an all-time great in his prime. He could choose the Sixers and they’d instantaneously morph into the Eastern Conference’s second-best team.
What I find more interesting, though, is the reaction to KD’s free agency tour, or lack there of. LeBron was crucified in 2010 for leaving Cleveland so that he could join Miami’s star-laden roster. Yet no one seems to have an issue with the ring-less Durant open to linking up with the league MVP and joining a 73-win Warriors team. Why this is so, I’m not exactly sure. But there’s not a superstar in the league that gets treated with kid gloves as frequently as Durant.
Will a Contender Nab Al Horford?
Horford isn’t a superstar and doesn’t generate the same types of buzz that names like Durant and Dwyane Wade do. What’s interesting about Horford, though, is that he’s the type of player who can seamlessly gel with any roster.
Think of Horford as a Chris Bosh-lite. He doesn’t have the three-point range, but is a brilliant passer and lethal from just inside the circle. (He connected on 49 percent of his jumpers last season from between 16 and 24 feet, according to NBA.com’s player tracking data.) He’s also one of the league’s top defenders. At 6-foot-10 and 245 pounds, Horford is big enough to man the paint (holding opponents to 49 percent shooting at the rim last year, per NBA.com) but also limber enough to keep up with guards on the perimeter. Horford was eighth in defensive win shares last year, according to Basketball Reference.
Simply put: Horford is the perfect free agent acquisition for a contender. The question is: can any of them get him?
As of now, there are numerous teams in on Horford. His former team, the Hawks, who can offer more money and years than anyone else. The Pistons. The Celtics. The Wizards. The Heat.
And a new team emerged Thursday morning, too: the Thunder.
As they prepare Durant pitch, Thunder looking to clear cap space. Rivals believe they plan to chase Al Horford too https://t.co/eyM4Ijqgv9
— Brian Windhorst (@WindhorstESPN) June 30, 2016
Billy Donovan coached Horford at Florida, so there’s certainly a connection there. Also, this fit just makes too much sense. It would give Durant a good reason to stay in OKC, which is seemingly something he wants to do. It would allow Horford play the type of secondary role he seems to enjoy. It would also morph the Thunder into the Western Conference favorite.
You know how the Thunder were receiving all sorts of praise for flipping Serge Ibaka (who was likely to leave next year as a free agent) for Victor Oladipo and Domantas Sabonis? A week ago, that move looked prudent. Now it seems brilliant.
The Folly of Relying on Free Agency
For two-plus years now, the Wizards have had one goal: clearing enough cap space to bring Kevin Durant back to his hometown. Now, they can’t even get into the room to speak to him. A similar thing has happened with the Rockets. The Knicks were hoping to get into the Durant sweepstakes; now they’re stuck with the 2011 Bulls.
The point: cap space is great, but it’s become less valuable now that everyone has it. Sure, sometimes sacrificing the present for the future can lead to good results. Just ask Pat Riley. But most teams can’t send someone like Pat Riley into the room. You know how smart GMs like Billy Beane are always talking about looking for the market inefficiencies? Well, the latest market inefficiency may just be building through trades and targeting Tier 2 free agents every year, instead of holding out for a whale.
https://vine.co/v/e3iHiB7u9va
Keep an Eye on the Salary Floor
Every team will spend at least $84.6 million on player salaries this year. If teams don’t reach that floor, then they’ll be required to cut a check for the remaining amount and split among the players on their team. That money is coming out of the owner’s pocket anyway. The front office as well use it to improve the roster — and so you now have reports that the Sixers are all-in on Harrison Barnes. Not necessarily because they think he’s deserving of a max contract, but because they’re currently $50 million below the salary floor. The Celtics are in a similar situation. Some mid-level dudes are going to get PAID because of the floor.
The Make or Break Teams
A few squads are swinging for the fences. That could lead to a home run, or an ugly strikeout. The Heat, for example, would love to enter next season with a starting lineup of Goran Dragic, Wade, Durant, Bosh and Horford. If they do, they’ll be right there with the Cavs.
The Mavericks are going after Mike Conley and Hassan Whiteside. If they succeed, Dallas could be one of the top four teams in the West.
The Wizards are all-in on All Horford. If he signs with them, Washington becomes one of the East’s better teams.
But what if these teams all come up short? What if Miami loses out on Durant and Horford, lose Whiteside in the process and alienate Wade, too? What if the Mavericks, once again, miss out on everyone?
‘Tis the season of hope. But it doesn’t take much for hope to transform into sorrow.
