Early college football win totals are starting to trickle out of Vegas. The Golden Nugget released some select over/under bets last week, and other win totals are popping up at the offshore sportsbooks.
After a week of careful study, here are my five favorite bets from the Nugget’s win totals.
Alabama under 9.5 (-110)
It’s a familiar story: Alabama loses a slew of studs to the NFL and is unsettled at quarterback, but the Crimson Tide are so loaded that they don’t miss a beat. Why should this year be any different?
First, even with all the talent ‘Bama has sent to the pros, its 2016 draft class was deeper than usual. All of the seven Tide players selected went in the first three rounds, and six of them went in the first two. Four defensive players got snatched up before the end of the second round, including two members of an all-time great defensive line. You also have to factor in the possibility of transition costs stemming from the departure of defensive coordinator Kirby Smart.
By the end of the season, Nick Saban and new coordinator Jeremy Pruitt will have the D up to snuff. Still, a rocky start — by ‘Bama standards — isn’t out of the question.
Meanwhile, it’s tough to assume that an offense replacing the best center in the country and the entire backfield won’t have its own fair share of misfires. Not to mention, we’re waiting to see how a felony charge against elite left tackle Cam Robinson plays out.
I rate the Crimson Tide as the No. 1 team in the country to start the season, which means I’d favor them over all challengers on a neutral field. I still see enough potholes in the schedule to entice me to bet that ‘Bama doesn’t go over nine regular season wins.
TCU over 8.5 (+105)
Oklahoma gets the pole position in the Big 12 to start this season, but the Horned Frogs aren’t that far behind.
The offensive losses are admittedly significant. Trevone Boykin supplanted Andy Dalton as the best quarterback of the Gary Patterson era, while first-round talent Josh Doctson and burner Kolby Listenbee made gave TCU complementary weapons at wideout.
On the other hand, the D has the potential to be the best of Patterson’s tenure, which is saying something.
Injuries wrecked a promising 2015 season in Fort Worth that still produced 11 wins. There’s enough firepower left for one of the country’s top coaching staffs to get back to double-digit Ws.
Notre Dame over 9 (+105)
Speaking of teams with awful injury issues last season…
Frankly, this is a play on ND’s schedule as much as anything else. The Fighting Irish annually have one of the toughest slates in the country, but they catch a break this season. ND plays only three true road games: Texas, North Carolina State and USC. Additionally, the Irish get always-tough Michigan State early in what looks like a transition year.
This probably isn’t a national title contender, but I like ND to at least hit nine wins this year.
Ohio State under 8.5 (-105)
The early part of Urban Meyer’s tenure at OSU has reminded me so much of his time at Florida. I can’t help but wonder if we’re going to see slippage this year similar to what happened in Gainesville after Tim Tebow’s departure.
Aside from the return of J.T. Barrett, the major players who were instrumental in four consecutive seasons of near dominance in the Big Ten are gone. Meyer has recruited well, as expected, but a mass exodus that leaves just six returning starters on the roster almost always leaves a mark.
The Buckeyes’ schedule also kicks up a notch this year. In addition to an early road trip to face Oklahoma, OSU plays on the road against Wisconsin, Penn State and Michigan State. Michigan and revenge-hungry coach Jim Harbaugh await in the season finale. For a young team facing so much uncertainty this year, that’s a tough ask.
(And, yes, by betting against Nick Saban and Urban Meyer, I’m tugging on Superman’s cape not once, but twice.)
Louisville over 9 (-110)
I’ll admit that this bet just about starts and ends with my supreme confidence in Bobby Petrino and his ability to maximize quarterback Lamar Jackson’s talent. The Cardinals also pick up another likely win with Auburn moving off the non-conference slate.
