Fifteen quarterbacks were selected in the 2016 NFL Draft. Only three of them were taken in Round 1—Jared Goff went No. 1 overall to the Los Angeles Rams, Carson Wentz went one pick later to the Philadelphia Eagles and Paxton Lynch went to the Denver Broncos at No. 26. Just one, Christian Hackenberg, was drafted in Round 2, selected by the New York Jets.

Success isn’t a given in the NFL, no matter a player’s draft pedigree and quarterback is no different. That’s why it’s fascinating not only to look at the long-term prospects of the draft’s top quarterbacks selected, but also those taken in middle rounds to teams with less pressing, but still present, need at the position.

Six quarterbacks fall into that category—drafted in Rounds 3, 4 or 5—this year. The New England Patriots took North Carolina State’s Jacoby Brissett in Round 3 and the Cleveland Browns took USC’s Cody Kessler two picks later. In Round 4, the long slide of Michigan State’s Connor Cook came to an end when he was selected by the Oakland Raiders. Later in the round, the Dallas Cowboys picked Mississippi State’s Dak Prescott and the Buffalo Bills took Ohio State’s Cradle Jones. Rounding out the mid-round quarterbacks was Stanford’s Kevin Hogan, drafted by the Kansas City Chiefs late in Round 5.

For these seven players, the battle to be a starter someday for their respective teams will be difficult, just based on the historical precedent set by other quarterbacks drafted in Rounds 3 through 5 in recent years.

HOUSTON, TX - DECEMBER 22:  Matt Schaub #8 of the Houston Texans looks for a receiver in the third quarter against the Denver Broncos at Reliant Stadium on December 22, 2013 in Houston, Texas.  (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)
HOUSTON, TX – DECEMBER 22: Matt Schaub #8 of the Houston Texans looks for a receiver in the third quarter against the Denver Broncos at Reliant Stadium on December 22, 2013 in Houston, Texas. (Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images)

Between 2000 and 2015, 70 quarterbacks were drafted in those rounds, yet only 17 have thus far started at least 16 games. Just seven had more than 30 starts. And the only ones who have been long-term starters (or are current starters) for any team have been Matt Schaub (Round 3, 2004), Kyle Orton (Round 4, 2005), David Garrard (Round 4, 2002), Russell Wilson (Round 3, 2012), Josh McCown (Round 2, 2002), Nick Foles (Round 3, 2012), Trent Edwards (Round 3, 2007), Kirk Cousins (Round 4, 2012) and Colt McCoy (Round 3, 2010). The odds are not in the 2016 mid-rounders’ favor.

But the potential success of these six mid-round rookies depends on more than just the history of quarterbacks drafted in the same rounds. The intersection of talent, timing and circumstance will also factor heavily in these six players’ futures. And some of these six men could realistically have the chance to be starters for their respective teams down the line.

Of the six, Cook has the hardest path to take to get there; he’s currently on the depth chart behind backup Matt McGloin and starter Derek Carr, a Raiders second-round pick from 2014. Carr is progressing rapidly as one of the NFL’s best downfield passers and is well on his way to be the face of the franchise in Oakland. Only a contract dispute or significant injury will result in Cook supplanting Carr in the foreseeable future.

Brissett’s chances to be the heir to Tom Brady are present, but it’s hard to tell when the future Hall of Famer will choose to retire. Though he turns 39 years old in August, Brady said last fall that he hopes to continue playing for another 10 years. Should that come to pass—and right now, it’s impossible to say that Brady’s optimism isn’t realistic—the chances are good that Brissett is no longer in the league, let alone on the Patriots’ roster. Now, anything is possible and circumstances could change in New England that lead Brissett to be their next starter, but in the spirit of giving Brady the benefit of the doubt, it’s hard to imagine Brissett taking over for No. 12 any time soon.

PALO ALTO, CA - NOVEMBER 28:  Kevin Hogan #8 of the Stanford Cardinal shouts to his team during their game against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Stanford Stadium on November 28, 2015 in Palo Alto, California.  (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)
PALO ALTO, CA – NOVEMBER 28: Kevin Hogan #8 of the Stanford Cardinal shouts to his team during their game against the Notre Dame Fighting Irish at Stanford Stadium on November 28, 2015 in Palo Alto, California. (Photo by Ezra Shaw/Getty Images)

Hogan has upside for the Chiefs, at least in the way the offense is configured now, but it could be some time before he gets the chance to start. If Kansas City continues to be more than comfortable with the stylings of Alex Smith, who turns 32 years old in May and could conceivably also play for another 10 years, that could prevent Hogan from advancing up the depth chart. Also standing in his way are Smith’s two current backups, Tyler Bray and Aaron Murray, who are 24 and 25 years old, respectively.

Smith’s contract with the Chiefs expires after the 2018 season, a year he’s set to cost $20.6 million against the salary cap, while costing the team only $3.6 million in dead money if he’s released. So it’s possible that the Smith era could come to an end sooner than Smith would like. But it’s also possible that Smith’s high cap hit can be reduced in 2018 via an extension, which would push Hogan’s potential starting debut back additional years. The statuses of the three other Chiefs quarterbacks, and especially what becomes of Smith in two years, will be just as important to Hogan’s career, in addition to his personal development as an NFL quarterback in the interim.

Prescott’s situation is a more intriguing one. He’ll be No. 3 on the depth chart in Dallas behind Kellen Moore and starter Tony Romo. But Romo is 36 years old and has suffered multiple collarbone fractures. He’s opted to fortify the injury this offseason via a surgically implanted plate, which may or may not solve the problem or interfere with his ability to throw. And remember, Romo himself was an undrafted free agent signing with the Cowboys in 2003 who had to step in for an injured Drew Bledsoe in 2006. He swiftly won the job and became one of the more productive passers in the NFL. This franchise is not afraid to make changes at any position, regardless of who was drafted (or not, in Romo’s case), and where they were drafted.

Thus, Prescott’s time could certainly come in Dallas, whether because Romo suffers another injury or if he chooses to retire when his current contract expires following the 2019 season.

BLACKSBURG, VA - SEPTEMBER 7: Cardale Jones #12 of the Ohio State Buckeyes passes for a 24-yard touchdown in the first quarter against the Virginia Tech Hokies at Lane Stadium on September 7, 2015 in Blacksburg, Virginia. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)
BLACKSBURG, VA – SEPTEMBER 7: Cardale Jones #12 of the Ohio State Buckeyes passes for a 24-yard touchdown in the first quarter against the Virginia Tech Hokies at Lane Stadium on September 7, 2015 in Blacksburg, Virginia. (Photo by Joe Robbins/Getty Images)

The two quarterbacks with the greatest chance to become starters sooner than later are Jones and Kessler, presuming their level of talent and development turns them into someone capable of doing so. Their situations, at least, are more favorable to their eventual chances to start than the other four mid-round quarterbacks drafted this year.

For Jones and the Bills, it all comes down to what the team chooses to do with Tyrod Taylor. Taylor should serve as the team’s starter after a surprisingly productive 2015 campaign, but his future after that is very much up in the air. Taylor is making only $3.1 million for 2016, the lowest payday for any NFL starting quarterback and millions less than the typical backup salary. Another good year and he will be seeking out a starter’s payday for sure—a.k.a. $17 million to $20 million, based on the current market rate. The Bills have already suggested they will balk at any such contract and feel comfortable not only with his backup, EJ Manuel, but also with moving on via a young, inexpensive passer. That’s where Jones fits in.

Jones is exceedingly raw, though, having thrown a mere 269 passes for Ohio State. He has a huge arm and great size for the position, but fundamentals of the position—such as understanding and adjusting to blitzes, game management and accuracy—all need work. If Jones can put in that work and improve quickly—as in one-season quickly—he could take over the starting job as early as 2017. It’s also possible that Manuel can serve as a bridge in 2017 and Jones could become the starter in 2018. Either way, the stars are aligning from a circumstance standpoint for Jones to have a chance to be an NFL starter, but it will depend on him as a player to possess the ability to take advantage of an opportunity that could soon present itself.

Kessler, meanwhile, was an unheralded draft prospect, but that didn’t matter to Browns head coach Hue Jackson, who cited his record of developing quarterbacks—including the Baltimore Ravens’ Joe Flacco and the Cincinnati Bengals’ Andy Dalton (and his 20-plus year collegiate and NFL coaching experience working with the position)—as reasons why the Kessler pick must be trusted.

Jackson cited Kessler’s “pinpoint accuracy” as a selling point, and he’s certainly not wrong. In four years at USC, Kessler completed 67.5 percent of his passes, for 10,339 yards and had 88 touchdowns thrown to just 19 interceptions, including five per year in 2014 and 2015. What he lacks in arm strength, he does make up for in work ethic, the aforementioned accuracy, an ability to protect the football and to manage the game. And Kessler could get a chance to start sooner than later, given the Browns’ quarterback situation and the fact that, for better or for worse, the franchise has a history of numerous passers getting at least one start per season.

Given that the Browns waited until Round 4 to address the quarterback position that has bothered them for decades, they appear more and more comfortable with starting Robert Griffin III this year, whom they acquired as a free agent earlier this year. The 36-year old Josh McCown could remain on the roster as veteran backup, but his release or trade looks ever increasingly likely. Cleveland’s other two quarterbacks right now are Austin Davis and Connor Shaw, with neither’s roster security confirmed and neither appearing true threats in a competition for the starting job.

Griffin could recapture the magic of his 2012 rookie season, which means he’d be a longer-term solution for the Browns, relegating Kessler to a backup role. Or he could struggle as he did in 2013 and 2014, which could force Kessler on the field as early as his rookie year or lead him to being named starter for 2017.

While only a handful of the 70 mid-round quarterbacks drafted from 2000 to 2015 defied the odds, those players still allow room for optimism that the six taken in Rounds 3 through 5 this year could end up with double-digit starts to their names, like Foles, McCown or Schaub. But these six players need more than just to prove they have the talent to take over for their respective teams’ incumbent starters. The timing and circumstances also have to line up just right.

For some, both could occur at the exact same time, giving them the professional opportunity they’ve been seeking. For others, the timing won’t work out, for others, the talent won’t develop and for others still, neither the talent nor the timing will end up in their favors. In the NFL, everything is earned and not given, and for quarterbacks taken in the draft’s middle rounds, earning the starting job they desire is simply more difficult than their Rounds 1 and 2 counterparts.

About Andrea Hangst

Andrea Hangst is The Comeback's NFL salary cap and contract guru. She also covers the NFL for Bleacher Report, Sports on Earth and Scout.com's Orange and Brown Report. She is the host of the weekly F*BALL NFL Podcast, which can be found via iTunes or Stitcher and she is a member of the Pro Football Writers of America.