Holy moly, last week was brutal. Seriously, if you're betting these, do the opposite.
USC at Arizona (+6.5)
A mere eight weeks ago, plenty of us in the college football blognoscenti thought USC could possibly win the national championship. Yet, even though they still have a shot at the top of the BCS rankings at the end of the season, the Trojans look to me like they're playing out the string since that loss to Stanford.
Blame Lane Kiffin, pundits – not for his technical coaching acumen. To me, the Trojans just don't seem all that inspired.
That spells trouble when you're going on the road to play a team on the upswing, which sounds a lot like Arizona. In Rich Rodriguez's first year, the Wildcats are rounding into form. Quarterback Matt Scott is rocking in the Spread-and-Shred and will pose the stiffest test yet for USC's underwhelming defense.
Pick: Upset alert.
Texas Tech (+7.5) at Kansas State
Betting against Bill Snyder? Yeah, that's right. Stung me last week, but I'm either this ballsy or this stupid.
This is a bet on Texas Tech more than a play against K-State. I think the Red Raiders are vastly underrated. They may run the Air Raid, but they have an effective ground game to go with Seth Doege and his aerial show. Tech is vastly improved defensively, too, so the chances that Collin Klein will do another Aaron Rodgers this weekend look slim.
Pick: KSU by not enough, if at all.
Baylor at Iowa State (-3)
I'm sticking to my knitting this week in hopes that I'll turn my fortunes around. Ergo, Iowa State-Baylor is making an appearance.
The Cyclones got worked by Oklahoma State last week, while Baylor dropped a hard-fought contest at Texas. Oddly enough, that actually works in favor of the 'Clones in this match-up. Texas serves as something of a measuring stick for the Longhorns' in-state rivals from Waco. That puts the Bears in danger of coming out flat.
ISU is running short on opportunities to get to that magic number of six wins. That's not lost on Paul Rhoads.
Pick: This one's for Jake Knott.
Oregon State at Washington (+4.5)
The Beavers kept their undefeated record intact last weekend against Utah, but they looked incredibly unimpressive in doing so. "Unimpressive" would be a kind description for how the Huskies in their last outing, a 52-17 drubbing at the hands of Arizona.
So why back U-Dub? First, look at Iowa St. A team that will be hard-pressed to get to six wins should have plenty of motivation here.
Of course, undefeated OSU has motivation of its own. The real edge here for Washington lies in Husky Stadium, which can be a tough venue at night. Plus, UW's secondary can slow OSU's passing game.
Pick: Another undefeated goes down.
Navy (+5.5) at East Carolina
Revenge! It's a concept the Midshipmen take seriously. Ruffin McNeill's defenseless team knocked off Navy in a wild one last year.
Pick: The Middies ain't playing.
(Last Week: 1-4; Overall: 18-22)