Much could be pushed to the side during the Cubs’ 108-year, curse-breaking World Series title run last season. But one of their most masterful performances was delivered by starter Kyle Hendricks in the NLCS. The righty spun together 7.1 innings of shutout baseball while yielding only six hits, and the franchise won the National League pennant for the first time since 1945 as a result.
Hendricks was a revelation a season ago, going 16-8 with an NL-best 2.13 ERA. The 27-year-old even ranked just a smidge below Cy Young Award winner Max Scherzer in WHIP (0.98). But he and the rest of the Cubs’ rotation have failed to replicate their glorified numbers from 2016. In fact, they posted the best ERA (3.13), xFIP (3.74) opponents’ BABIP (.255) and the most quality starts (100) in the game.
This season, however, those totals have declined to a 4.04 ERA, 4.06 xFIP, .285 opponents’ BABIP and 32 quality starts almost halfway through the season. The Cubs have some explaining to do, so let’s see if there’s another hidden run in store for the second half.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=62hLlCHhYzg
Part 1: Defense, Schmefense
Like it or not, the Cubs’ pitchers were gratefully aided by their mates behind them last season, ranking first in DEF (26.8) on Fangraphs. The category is calculated through positional adjustment, as well as fielding runs. The Cincinnati Reds (33-45) currently sit at the top of the department, so it doesn’t necessarily translate to a team’s overall success. Nevertheless, the former finds itself sitting 15th in the league.
Part 2: Jon Lester
Lester (5-4) has come the closest among his peers to resembling his old self, but he’s still struggling in numerous categories. His ERA has rocketed up from 2.44 to 3.69, and opponents own a .304 BABIP after a sound .256 BABIP in 2016. His FIP has also taken a jump from 2.92 to 3.41. Although his velocity has dipped among his repertoire of pitches, the 33-year-old southpaw’s biggest oddity is his fastball, utilizing it eight percent less this season.
Over his last four starts, Lester appears to have settled into a groove. He went at least six innings in each outing, along with collecting a 2.42 ERA. Therefore, the aforementioned opponents’ BABIP could be proof of a bit of bad luck.
Part 3: Kyle Hendricks
Once coined “the next Greg Maddux,” Hendricks’ nickname has faded quickly in 2017 because of a right hand injury, which should keep him sidelined through the All-Star Break, as well as a lack of effectiveness. Even before his setback, he was experiencing a decline in velocity, averaging 85 mph on his fastball. On top of that, his home run to fly ball ratio (HR/FB) jumped a stout 8.3 percent from last campaign. As a result, he possesses a 4.09 ERA and a 4.50 FIP (3.20 in ’16). He’ll need a much stronger second half to give the club faith in him as a second or third starter if the postseason comes calling.
Part 4: Jake Arrieta
The 2015 Cy Young Award winner should ask for a time machine instead of a new contact when it runs up in the offseason. Arrieta has posted a woeful 4.67 ERA this season, the 12th-worst among in peers in the NL. His FIP doesn’t justify any sense of optimism, sitting at 4.17. Moreover, the 31-year-old has yielded 46 earned runs thus far, one more than he allowed in the entire 2015 campaign. In what seems to be a trend within the Cubs’ rotation, Arrieta’s velocity has taken a nose dive as well over the last couple of seasons. Plus, his hard contact rate is on the rise at 31 percent.
To make matters worse, he allowed seven stolen bases on Tuesday against the Nationals, showcasing his painfully slow delivery to the plate. Evidently, his 426.1 innings pitched over the last two seasons, including the playoffs, have taken a toll on the veteran. Arrieta’s ERA has seen an increase of nearly three points over that stretch. It’s difficult to imagine him regaining his once-dominant form anytime soon, either.
Part 5: John Lackey
After signing a two-year, $32 million contract with the Cubs in 2015, the veteran did his part in contributing to the franchise’s first championship in over a century, amassing a 3.35 ERA and a 3.81 FIP in 29 starts. His durability hasn’t changed much two-plus years later, but his potency definitely has.
Lackey’s ERA has jumped up almost two points (5.24) and his FIP exceeds the definition of disaster (5.88), representing the worst in all of baseball. To make things worse, his HR/FB ratio is third-worst in the game (22.4 percent). He’d be fine the back end of the rotation, but until a deal is swung, Lackey currently sits third.
Part 6: TBA
Remember when fans were fine with starter Jason Hammel departing town? His 3.83 ERA wouldn’t look too shabby as of now.
First, Brett Anderson attempted to fill the void Hammel left behind, and his back injury and an 8.18 ERA have forced him out of the conversation. With the aforementioned Hendricks out, Mike Montgomery (2.50 ERA) and Eddie Butler (3.71 ERA) are getting their respective cracks at a bid for the final starting nod. Considering Butler’s inability to go deeper than five-plus innings, along with a fairly low 14.1 strikeout rate, Montgomery should stick around on the staff after the All-Star break.
Verdict:
Regardless of whichever long-term fit is added to the rotation, Cubs’ president Theo Epstein won’t stay silent at the deadline with the team just a game back of the NL Central lead.
But one starter won’t solve their overall inconsistencies. Even if the franchise sneaks into the postseason, its pitching wouldn’t stand a chance against the Nationals (5.65 runs per game), Dodgers (5.16), Diamondbacks (5.24) or Rockies (5.06). Remove the crown; the defending champs have already been dethroned.
