Almost a month into the MLB season, it’s hard not to notice the Arizona Diamondbacks’ early competence. A team that lost 93 games a season ago now stands at 14-8, one of the best records in the league. With the NL Wild Card seemingly wide open, does the team have a real shot at playoff run? It’s a reasonable question to ask.
After swinging for the fences in 2016, trading super-prospect Dansby Swanson (and more) in one of the biggest overpays in MLB history to acquire Shelby Miller, and signing Zach Greinke to a record $206 million deal, the Diamondbacks cratered thanks to injuries and disappointing performances up and down their roster. In the offseason, Arizona rebuilt its management structure, hiring well-regarded Red Sox assistant general manager Mike Hazen to oversee the club and Boston bench coach Torey Lovullo as manager.
And while there was essentially nowhere to go but up for the new leadership, so far in 2017 the D-Backs have soared.
The D-Backs’ success has started with its offense. Arizona leads the league in runs scored (121), hits (209) and RBI (114) and has gotten production from a variety of sources.
Third baseman Jake Lamb is building on his breakout 2016 season with four home runs, 18 RBI in 20 games and a .368 OBP. Paul Goldschmidt continues to be a powerful presence in the lineup. And A.J. Pollock had returned to everyday play, bringing the speed and power the D-Backs missed at the top of their order in 2016. Role players like Chris Owings, Yasmany Tomas and David Peralta are off to hot starts as well.
Grand Salami. #OurSeason pic.twitter.com/CpcuKmUkkU
— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) April 25, 2017
On the pitching side, the rotation has been extremely stable. Miller—who completely flamed out in 2016—has made four starts and not been a total trainwreck. Greinke has been an ace with a 2.93 ERA and more than a strikeout per inning in five starts. high-ceiling 20-somethings Patrick Corbin and Robbie Ray are off to strong starts as well. Taijuan Walker, the was acquired for Jean Segura from the Seattle Mariners, has further provided stability in the back of Arizona’s rotation. There’s competence on the pitching staff.
Now, the numbers point to the D-Backs outburst being somewhat unsustainable. Arizona’s sporting a robust .337 BABIP, which will drop sooner rather than later. The club’s lineup can certainly be a strength, but whether or not they’re among the league’s best boppers remains to be seen.
However, Arizona’s Wild Card chances are amplified by a surprisingly weak field.
It (still) appears a lock the Chicago Cubs, Washington Nationals and Los Angeles Dodgers will win their respective divisions, but behind them, there’s plenty of uncertainty.
The New York Mets are off to a shaky start against an easy schedule and have had multiple key players get injured, including Yoenis Cespedes, Steven Matz and Travis D’Arnaud. Even healthy, the Metropolitans have major holes.
RECAP: #Dbacks continues to roll behind @PatrickCorbin46's solid start to improve to 14-8 in #OurSeason: https://t.co/IfZN5r5biT pic.twitter.com/v8HTkFox19
— Arizona Diamondbacks (@Dbacks) April 26, 2017
Meanwhile, the Pittsburgh Pirates and San Francisco Giants have been hit with major injuries/suspensions. Pittsburgh outfielder Starling Marte earned an 80-game PED suspension, robbing the Pirates of arguably their best player for half the season. Factoring in Jung Ho Kang’s visa troubles and Pittsburgh is missing two top-of-the lineup hitters due to non-injury related issues. The Giants, meanwhile, lack depth, and are one more dirt-bike injury in the starting rotation to falling out of contention already.
Looking at the Wild Card field, outside the teams mentioned above and perhaps the always-competitive St. Louis Cardinals and hot-starting Colorado Rockies, the field has never been more open for Arizona to propel themselves back into the playoff hunt. Undoubtedly, there’s an opening.
Furthermore, Arizona isn’t bogged down by a tough schedule. Per FanGraphs projections, the Diamondbacks are right in the middle of the National League in terms of strength of schedule with +0.25 extra wins.
A lot has to go right for the Diamondbacks to shake their mediocre recent history. However, there’s reason to believe the 2017 version of the team has a real chance at contending. A Wild Card spot certainly isn’t out of the question.
