Common wisdom holds that for the Colorado Rockies to excel while playing home games at mile-high Coors Field they have to lead the Major Leagues in runs scored. They have to out-bash every other team and win a bunch of 10-9 games on their way to a 900-run season that eases the impact of a pitching staff full of bloated ERAs.
But as of Sunday morning, Colorado is 41-23, with the best record in the National League, and their success has as much to do with pitching and defense as with slugging.
Make no mistake, the Rockies can hit. Nolan Arenado is a stud, Charlie Blackmon is having an MVP-caliber season and Mark Reynolds is breaking out at age 33. But thanks to slumps from DJ LeMahieu, Trevor Story, Ian Desmond and Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado does not lead the Majors in runs per game. In fact, the Rockies rank only fourth in that category (behind the Astros, Yankees and Nationals) and are on pace to score only a few more runs than they did in 2016, when they went 75-87.
The difference for this Colorado team has been run prevention. Despite playing half their games at altitude, the Rockies have allowed fewer runs per game (4.14) than all but four other teams. If they maintain that rate over a full season, they will give up fewer runs than any Rockies team ever has during a 162-game campaign.
That success in keeping opposing lineups at bay begins with an overachieving young starting rotation. 22-year-old rookie Antonio Senzatela has a 3.56 ERA and 4.40 FIP. Another rookie, 24-year-old Kyle Freeland, has a 3.34 ERA and 4.59 FIP. Yet another rookie German Marquez, has a 4.44 ERA and 3.91 FIP. Jeff Hoffman is technically not a rookie, but he is a 24-year-old with a 2.33 ERA and 2.46 FIP.
Senzatela, Freeland, Marquez and Hoffman won’t win any Cy Young awards this decade, but they’ve provided a steady hand for the Rockies with Jon Gray on the disabled list and Tyler Chatwood and Tyler Anderson struggling.
Thanks to the efforts of those youngsters, as well as a shutdown bullpen, the Colorado boasts a 4.04 FIP, 10th in the Majors, despite Coors.
The Rockies pitching staff has benefited hugely from one of the best defenses in franchise history. According to Fangraphs, only three teams have been better with the glove this season. Despite returning most of the same players from 2016, the team’s defense has improved vastly. Colorado pitchers are inducing more ground balls than all but two other staffs, and Rockies defenders have done an exceptional job turning those balls in play into outs.
As Joe Sheehan points out in his (highly recommended) newsletter, the 2017 Rockies are built similarly to the 2007 iteration that won 90 games and stormed to the World Series. That team had a great offense, led by Todd Helton, Matt Holliday and Troy Tulowitzki but also featured a sinkerballing pitching staff and a steady defense.
The Rockies are unlikely to maintain their .641 winning percentage much longer. They’re outplaying their run differential, relying on unproven young pitchers and getting unsustainable performance from what looks on paper like an average bullpen. That said, they’re already 18 games over .500, and even if they fall behind the Dodgers in the NL West, they’ve got tons of cushion over a weak wild-card field. FanGraphs gives Colorado an 83.9 percent chance to make the playoffs.
And if the Rockies do play in October, their offensive stars will get plenty of credit, but their pitching and defense will surely deserve some too.
