After emerging from the pile-up at the top of the AL East, the Boston Red Sox looked like a potential World Series team with a potent lineup, a good bullpen and a starting rotation led by one of the best pitchers in baseball. The storylines practically wrote themselves. How great would a Red Sox-Cubs World Series be? Imagine David Ortiz playing for a championship in his final season.
Unfortunately, the AL East grind may not have left Boston with much for the postseason. The Red Sox were arguably the best of the AL playoff teams at the end of the regular season, but they went down easily against a Cleveland Indians club that appeared to be diminished by injuries. Getting swept in three games was hardly the expected result for Red Sox fans, in addition to most MLB fans, analysts and observers. It was possibly the most stunning fall of the 2016 postseason.
Preseason Prediction: […] the Red Sox should be contenders for the AL East title, if not one of the league’s wild-card spots. The rotation is undoubtedly better with Price, as is the back end of the bullpen with Kimbrel. Ramirez and Sandoval can’t be much worse than they were last season, so improvement seems inevitable along with a young core of talent that should continue to develop. A 15-game jump in the standings doesn’t seem impossible if everything comes together as expected. (Ian Casselberry, March 14).
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What Went Right: Offense wasn’t exactly a problem for the Red Sox last season, but improvement from several hitters resulted in an extremely formidable lineup. Boston had the the highest team average (.280) and OPS (.810) in MLB and led the American League with 878 runs. They scored 101 more than the next closest team, also leading to a league-high +184 run differential. Only the Cubs (+252) pummeled the competition by a wider margin in MLB.
The run-scoring machine was led by Mookie Betts, who has emerged as one of the best all-around players in baseball. The outfielder, just turned 24, compiled a triple-slash average of .318/.363/.584 with 214 hits, 42 doubles, 31 home runs, 113 RBI and 26 stolen bases, a performance that could earn AL MVP honors. David Ortiz ended his Red Sox career with one of his best seasons, batting .318 with a 1.021 OPS, 48 doubles, 38 homers and 127 RBI. Dustin Pedroia rebounded from an injury-plagued season to hit .318 with 201 hits and 36 doubles, while Jackie Bradley Jr. followed up on his 2016 breakthrough with an .835 OPS, 30 doubles, 26 homers and 87 RBI.
Moving Hanley Ramirez to first base appears to have rejuvenated his bat. The infielder’s batting average improved by nearly 40 points (from .249 to .286), while his OPS increased by 150 points (from .717 to .866). With better hitting, Ramirez’s power also returned, resulting in 28 doubles and 30 home runs with 111 RBI. Boston had the middle-of-the-order run producer who could bat behind David Ortiz, as envisioned. Two to three more years of Ramirez in a Red Sox uniform now doesn’t seem so bad.
What Went Wrong: Boston president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski and general manager Mike Hazen prioritized improving the team’s pitching during the offseason. At the top of the list was acquiring a No. 1 starter to anchor the pitching staff. The Red Sox got the best guy available in left-hander David Price. Unfortunately, he didn’t pitch like the ace Boston was seeking at the top of the rotation.
With the exception of Rick Porcello and knuckleballer Steven Wright, starting pitching continued to be a problem for the Red Sox throughout the season and hindered their ability to pull away from the rest of the pack in the AL East. Clay Buchholz had another subpar year, compiling a 4.78 ERA and the lowest strikeout rate (six per nine innings) of his career. Eduardo Rodriguez was a huge disappointment, following up a promising rookie season with a 3-7 record and 4.71 ERA.
Dombrowski tried to get help, getting Drew Pomeranz from the San Diego Padres. But the left-hander didn’t provide much help, posting a 4.59 ERA in 13 starts (14 appearances). As it turns out, Pomeranz was probably dealing with elbow issues, the treatment of which was concealed from medical records shared between the Padres and Red Sox. MLB gave Boston the opportunity to rescind the trade, but opted to keep a younger arm with two years of arbitration eligibility remaining.
Most Surprising Player: Signing Rick Porcello to a four-year contract extension after being acquired from the Detroit Tigers last year was one of the more head-scratching decisions of the pre-Dombrowski regime. Sure, Porcello still had youth on his side and an impressive amount of major league experience for someone his age. But he never looked like a top-three starter in Detroit, yet the Red Sox were paying him like one, inking him to an $82.5 million deal.
However, with Price at the top of the rotation, there was no pressure on Porcello to pitch like an ace and he may have benefited from those expectations. At the very least, he put together a season that will surely silence all misgivings about the lucrative contract he was given. Porcello’s 3.15 ERA ranked fifth among AL starting pitchers, while he reached career highs in starts (33), innings (223) and strikeouts (189). His 22 wins were also easily a career-high, leading the major leagues. With that innings total and a 1.01 WHIP, Porcello also ranked among the top six in MLB.
No, the 27-year-old didn’t pitch well in the postseason, which could be the lasting memory throughout the winter. In Game 1 of the ALDS versus the Indians, he allowed five runs on six hits (three of them home runs) in less than five innings. But looking at the bigger picture, the Red Sox have to be encouraged by Porcello’s 2016 season, knowing that he will likely provide a return on their significant investment as a top-of-the-rotation starter.
Most Disappointing Player: For a team that ended the spring by demoting high-priced players and expected stars like Pablo Sandoval and Rusney Castillo, it probably seems unfair to label David Price as a disappointment. Yet the expectation was for the left-hander and his $217 million contract to be the unquestioned ace of the Red Sox starting rotation and an AL Cy Young Award candidate. That didn’t happen in 2016.
Though Price finished with a 17-9 record, that’s probably a testament to the strong team that played behind him — especially his lineup. Price’s 3.99 ERA was the highest of his nine-year MLB career, as was his average of 8.9 hits allowed per nine innings. (The 227 hits he gave up was the second-highest total of his career.) He did pitch better in the second half, perhaps settling in to regularly facing AL East lineups again during the regular season and pitching at Fenway Park. But a 4.08 ERA in September indicates that he wasn’t going into the postseason at his sharpest.
Price has six more years to meet the massive expectations that come with his contract. And if he leads the Red Sox to a World Series, his first season in Boston likely won’t be remembered. But the 31-year-old’s performance did reinforce some fears about giving a lucrative long-term contract to a pitcher in his 30s with a lot of innings on his left arm.
The Future: Despite the shocking end to the 2016 season, the future still looks bright for the Red Sox in seasons to come. Yes, there are some aging stars in the lineup and replacing David Ortiz’s production at designated hitter will be a formidable task. But the lineup also has plenty of youth, led by emerging superstar Betts, Bradley Jr. and shortstop Xander Bogaerts. More promising talent is still yet to develop, led by outfielder Andrew Benintendi and infielder Yoan Moncada, along with catchers Christian Vazquez and Blake Swihart.
There are still some disappointments to salvage, notably Sandoval and Castillo. But if Travis Shaw has permanently taken over at third base — which isn’t a guarantee, given his second-half cratering (.194 average, .619 OPS) — Sandoval could still have a future at DH. If not, Vazquez or Swihart might be part of the mix there, along with Castillo.
Dombrowski and Hazen will have to spend another offseason bolstering the pitching staff, looking for depth in the starting rotation and bullpen. But the Red Sox are in a far better place than they were a year ago and should battle an up-and-coming New York Yankees team for the AL East title next season.
