The Miami Marlins and starting pitcher Edinson Volquez have agreed to a two-year, $22 million deal, according to Fox Sports’ Ken Rosenthal (and as confirmed by several reporters):
Source confirms: #Marlins, Volquez in agreement on two-year, $22M contract, pending physical. First reported: @clarkspencer @flasportsbuzz.
— Ken Rosenthal (@Ken_Rosenthal) November 29, 2016
The 33-year-old Volquez had a rough 5.37 ERA in 2016 with the Kansas City Royals, but a deeper look at his numbers reveals that he was better than that ERA said, and was probably a bit unlucky.
Volquez had an FIP of 4.57, while his strikeout (6.61/9 IP) and walk (3.61/9 IP) rates were very close to the rates he put up in those areas the previous two seasons (6.96 strikeouts/9 IP in 2015, 6.54 strikeouts/9 IP in 2014; 3.23 walks/9 IP in 2015, 3.32 walks/9 IP in 2014). And in those two seasons, he had very good ERAs of 3.54 (2015) and 3.05 (2014). Additionally, his 2016 velocity (93.2 mph fastball average) was right in line with where it was the previous two seasons. Now, it shouldn’t necessarily be expected that he has a sub-4 ERA in 2017, but it shouldn’t be expected to be anywhere near as bad as his 2016 ERA says either, especially given that he’ll be out of the American League.
While it still feels wrong to talk about the baseball side of things following the tragic death of Jose Fernandez, the fact is that it’s a massive, irreplaceable loss in the Marlins’ rotation. Fernandez was arguably the most dominating starting pitcher in the majors in 2016 and was worth 6.2 WAR (wins above replacement) per FanGraphs. The next-best WAR of Miami’s starting pitchers in 2016 was 1.4 from Adam Conley.
Volquez doesn’t figure to be much better there himself (he had a 1.5 WAR per FanGraphs in 2016 and is projected for a 1.4 WAR in 2017), but he should still give the Marlins solid production, and over many innings (he’s thrown at least 170 innings each of the last five seasons). His 189 1/3 innings pitched in 2016 would’ve led the Marlins, and Fernandez and Tom Koehler were the only pitchers on Miami to throw over 175 innings on the season. So, Miami desperately needs more innings from their starters and Volquez should be able to be quite helpful there.
The Marlins’ rotation still needs much more help, but this move is a step in the right direction, and a very solid investment for them on paper.
