We’re roughly two and a half years into the Atlanta Braves’ rebuild, which began in earnest following the firing of former GM Frank Wren in September of 2014. Wren was just the first name to depart, joining scores of players, coaches, and other front office personnel. With the Braves opening their new home, SunTrust Park, this Friday afternoon, it seemed like an appropriate time to count down the five best and five worst trades of the rebuild.
One quick note: I’m not including any of the five trades this offseason on either list. It’s way too early to make judgments on those deals, considering the season is a week old and all five of those trades involved minor leaguers.
Anyway, TO THE LISTS!
FIVE BEST
1. Shelby Miller and Gabe Speier to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Aaron Blair, Ender Inciarte, and Dansby Swanson (December 9, 2015)
Well what did you expect? This was the trade that dragged every Braves fan that was on the fence of the rebuild firmly into the “in favor” camp. Miller’s one season with the Braves was more than acceptable, despite a hideous 6-17 record. His 3.02 ERA was a career low, he topped his career-high with 205 1/3 innings, and he sent both his walk and strikeout rates in the right direction following an uneven sophomore season in 2014 with the Cardinals. The Diamondbacks expected him to further build on that campaign in 2016, and he famously did not, pitching to an unsightly 6.15 ERA in just 20 major league starts, with another ten coming in the minors. He’s still in Arizona, but has just two seasons left of arbitration eligibility before hitting free agency.
Meanwhile, the Braves will control Blair, Inciarte, and Swanson for far more than just two seasons, as Blair and Swanson aren’t even arbitration eligible yet and Inciarte was inked to a five-year contract extension through the 2021 season this winter. Off to a slow start so far in 2017, Inciarte’s debut year in Atlanta was a success, as he hit .291/.351/.381 with three homers, 16 stolen bases, and top-notch defense in center field that earned him a Gold Glove. Blair’s first season in Atlanta was decidedly less successful, but given that he won’t turn 25 until the end of May, there’s time for him to grow and mature. In 15 starts at the major league level, Blair’s ERA was an unsightly 7.59, while he also struck out just 46 and walked 34 in 70 innings. He was far more productive in AAA, where his ERA dropped to 4.65 over 13 starts and he struck out 71 and walked 32 in 71 1/3 innings.
Then, there is Dansby Swanson, who has been tabbed as one of the Braves’ franchise faces going forward. The first overall pick just six months before his trade to the Braves, Swanson spent most of 2016 in the minors, smashing his way through 21 games at the high-A level before earning a promotion to AA, where he hit .261/.342/.402 in 84 games. After Erick Aybar’s trade to the Tigers, Swanson was promoted to the majors and staked his claim to the starting shortstop job in Atlanta. Over a 38 game sample, Swanson hit .302/.361/.442 and barely retained his rookie eligibility, tabbing him as the favorite for the 2017 NL Rookie of the Year award.
Even if Miller does turn it around, the Diamondbacks are only going to get a possible three above average seasons out of him following the disaster of 2016. Meanwhile, the Braves have already gotten one great year out of Inciarte and could get another six at a fair market value (assuming the option on his contract is exercised), and seem poised to get at least six years of at least average production out of Swanson at shortstop. Whatever they get from Blair going forward is just a bonus.
2. Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden to the St. Louis Cardinals for Tyrell Jenkins and Shelby Miller (November 17, 2014)
The trade that got the rebuild started, none of the four players involved are with the same organization on this day. The Braves knew they weren’t going to re-sign Jason Heyward a year before he hit free agency, and the Cardinals needed a corner outfielder following the untimely passing of Oscar Taveras the month before the deal. Thus, the two teams seemed like a good fit for a trade, and the two for two deal caught many offguard.
And in 2015, the trade worked well for both sides. Heyward hit .293/.359/.439 with 13 homers and a career-high 23 steals for the Cardinals, winning another Gold Glove and helping the Cardinals win the NL Central. As expected, he left that winter as a free agent (signing a mammoth eight-year, $184 million contract with the Chicago Cubs), and the Cardinals received a draft pick as their only compensation for him (which turned into Dakota Hudson, who MLB.com ranks as the team’s ninth-best prospect).
Jordan Walden was expected to be a key member of the Cardinals bullpen in 2015, but that didn’t happen. He pitched just 10 1/3 innings for the team, allowing one run and striking out 12, before he was released because of ongoing injury issues. He hasn’t pitched in the majors since.
Tyrell Jenkins was once a highly-touted prospect of his own, but he didn’t succeed with the Braves. After spending all of 2015 in the minors, he made his major league debut in 2016, and pitched to a 5.88 ERA over 52 innings. He struck out 26 and walked 33, which is a great ratio to have…if you’re a hitter. Atlanta eventually traded him to the Rangers in exchange for fellow live-armed pitcher Luke Jackson, and Jenkins went through several rounds of waiver hell before eventually landing with the Padres.
As for Miller, I already detailed his 2015 season above, and the Braves turned that into a pair of potential franchise cornerstones and another live-armed pitcher. For one year of Jason Heyward and 10 innings of Jordan Walden, the Braves got the best season of Shelby Miller’s career, a bad season from Tyrell Jenkins, a pair of question marks in Aaron Blair and Luke Jackson, and the bright futures of Ender Inciarte and Dansby Swanson. That’s not a bad return if you can get it.
3. Phil Gosselin to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Bronson Arroyo and Touki Toussaint (June 20, 2015)
When people talk about “NBA-style” trades, this is what they’re talking about. The Diamondbacks didn’t give a shit about Phil Gosselin, a utility player who is now 28 and playing for the Pirates. He has a career .280/.328/.381 line in 220 games with the Braves, Diamondbacks, and, currently, Pittsburgh. And the Braves really didn’t give a shit about Bronson Arroyo, who made 14 starts for Arizona in 2014 before blowing his elbow out, requiring Tommy John surgery. Arroyo didn’t pitch at all in 2015 and made just two starts for the Nationals in Rookie League ball in 2016 before making it back to the majors in 2017 with the Reds. And to further emphasize that the Braves didn’t care about Arroyo, they traded him to the Dodgers a month after initially acquiring him.
No, this was all about Arroyo’s contract and Touki Toussaint. The thrifty Diamondbacks weren’t too thrilled about having to pay Arroyo $9.5 million in 2015 to rehab, while also kicking in another $4.5 million to buy out his option for the 2016 season. The Braves had plenty of payroll to spare, so they gladly took on the contract – as long as Arizona gave them Toussaint along with Arroyo. The trade was made official on Toussaint’s 19th birthday, and the first round pick from just a year earlier was moving to an organization that lusted after his upside. He struggled after the deal, pitching to a 5.73 ERA in 48 2/3 innings along with 38 strikeouts and 33 walks, but shined in 2016, his first full year with Atlanta. Spending the year in A-ball once again, Toussaint struck out 128 and walked 71 over 132 1/3 innings, cutting his ERA by nearly two full runs down to 3.88.
Coming up on the two year anniversary of the trade, Toussaint is a top 15 prospect in a loaded Braves organization, and still can’t legally drink in America. And all the Braves needed to do in order to acquire him was swallow the bitter pill of Bronson Arroyo’s contract. That’s not bad work if you can find it.
4. Dario Alvarez and Lucas Harrell to the Texas Rangers for Travis Demeritte (July 27, 2016)
You’re probably looking at this thinking, “who in the hell are any of those three guys?” And that’s a fair point – Alvarez was plucked off waivers by the Braves in May of 2016 with just five major league innings under his belt, and Harrell signed a minor league deal with the club that same month after spending 2015 out of baseball. Two months and a combined total of 44 1/3 innings later, the Braves got a prospect value for Alvarez and Harrell in Travis Demeritte, the 30th overall pick by the Rangers in the 2013 MLB Draft. Demeritte was a guy that struck out a lot, but was a smooth defender at second base that hit for a lot of power, making him quite an interesting prospect for a Braves organization that could use some high potential bats.
The 22-year old Demeritte has done a pretty strong job of living up to Atlanta’s expectations for him, hitting .250/.384/.476 with three homers in 35 games after the trade (moving from the hitter-friendly California League to the vastly less hitter-friendly Carolina League in the process) and starting the 2017 season in AA with a homer and a similar triple slash (.261/.346/.522) in just six games.
As for the two pitchers? Harrell made just four starts for the Rangers, striking out 15 and walking 13 in 17 2/3 innings. He signed with the Blue Jays this offseason, and started the 2017 season on the DL for AAA Buffalo. Alvarez similarly had a disastrous end to his 2016 in Texas, allowing 11 runs (ten earned) over 11 2/3 innings. However, his 13:2 strikeout to walk ratio was good enough for the Rangers, and he earned a spot in their Opening Day bullpen. All’s well that ends well, right?
5. Hector Olivera to the San Diego Padres for Matt Kemp (July 30, 2016)
One sunk cost for another? Olivera was never going to play for the Braves again following his domestic violence arrest in 2016. So why not try to get *something* for him? That line of thinking led the Braves to dealing Olivera to San Diego for Matt Kemp, an on-field disappointment with a similarly hefty contract. With the money being kicked in to Kemp by the Dodgers, the Braves are paying him $19 million per year over the next three seasons, which is still a hefty amount. However, given that they were going to pay Olivera a total of $28.5 million over the next four years, Atlanta is still only laying out an extra roughly $30 million for Kemp. That’s not all that bad, given that they’ll get *something* out of Kemp rather than the *nothing* they would get out of Olivera, while also avoiding the PR disaster that playing Olivera after his arrest would have resulted in.
And while the 32-year old Kemp hasn’t played at a superstar level in his 60 games with the Braves, a .296/.349/.561 line with 14 homers is nothing to sneeze at (though it will inevitably decline as he accrues more playing time). The one major caveat here is health – after three straight 150 game seasons, Kemp landed on the DL after just four games this season with a tight hamstring. If he’s not able to stay on the field, the Braves will probably feel a lot worse about paying his $19 million salary.
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