In theory, the first weekend of the NBA Playoffs should be one of the best basketball weekends on the calendar. Again, in theory. Instead, the past two days featured a number of ugly blowouts that will no doubt lead to a number of #HotTakes on what should be a great Jump To Conclusion Monday.
But while it’s never wise to overreact to the first game of a best-of-seven series, there are some lessons that can be taken away from the weekend. Here are eight, one from each series.
1. The Celtics are in BIG trouble
The Avery Bradley injury is a killer. Bradley, who strained his hamstring during the fourth quarter of Game 1, is expected to miss the rest of Boston’s series with Atlanta. For the overachieving Celtics to lose their third-best player, and best perimeter defender, could prove to be too big a blow to overcome.
Here’s the problem: Bradley is the Celtics’ best catch-and-shoot player and turnover creator. Head coach Brad Stevens also loves running him off screens. Bradley’s all-around competence gives Boston a way to generate shots without relying on Isaiah Thomas, not to mention he’s one of the few players in the league who has the quickness to keep up with a point guard like Jeff Teague and the guile to chase a runner like Kyle Korver around.
So, to sum up, the Celtics are losing one of their best defenders and scorers, and now have to give Evan Turner more minutes. They’re also playing a Hawks team that is one of the best defensive units in the league. Brad Stevens is a wizard. But it’s hard to see how he comes up with a way to get his team clean looks and back into the series.
Dirk Nowitzki: 5-10
Rest of team: 5-31— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) April 17, 2016
2. The Thunder aren’t scared of Dirk Nowitzki.
The Thunder employed an interesting and heady defensive strategy in their Game 1 blowout Saturday night over the Mavericks. Billy Donovan had Thunder off-ball defenders stay at home throughout the game, instead of running to help on Dirk Nowitzki. Donovan’s bet was that the Mavericks are more dangerous with Dirk kickstarting plays as opposed to finishing them. And through one game, he was right.
Nowitzki connected on seven of his 15 field goals and finished with 18 points. He also failed to record a single assist as the team misfired on 70 percent of its looks. No other Maverick finished with more than eight points. Nowitzki is still a great player but no longer has the legs to go for 30 every night. The Thunder seem to know this. It will be interesting to see how Rick Carlisle and the Mavericks adjust.
Here's the ad Under Armour won't show you https://t.co/jzmWefmKY0
— Diamond Leung (@diamond83) April 16, 2016
3. The Warriors would be wise to let Steph Curry rest a few games
Once upon a time, The Great Steph Curry had an Achilles heel: his ankles, once so fragile they prevented his ascension, which is why the sight of Curry spraining his right ankle in the first half Saturday against the Rockets was so terrifying. Steve Kerr smartly kept Curry glued to the bench for the entire second half. Of course, his team’s 30-point demolition of the Rockets certainly made that decision easier.
The Rockets are a mess. James Harden failed to get to the line in Game 1, and just looked uninterested. The team can’t guard anyone — even though they have a number of talented individual defenders, and the whole franchise, from the court up to the front office, is in flux. Right now, Houston is just counting down the days until its season ends. Curry should be able to take a few games off without Golden State missing a beat.
4. The Raptors’ iso-heavy offense is going to struggle against the Pacers
The Pacers’ Game 1 victory in Toronto was the upset of the weekend. It’s also a result that many predicted, for a number of good reasons. Namely: Indiana had the NBA’s third-best defensive rating this season and matches up well with a Raptors offense that relies on isolations and free throws and struggles from the outside.
Paul George’s offensive explosion — 33 points, six assists — was the main story coming out of Game 1. But it’s the Pacers’ stout D which should have Raptors fans most concerned. Indiana was able to hold Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan to 25 total points and the Raptors as a team to 38 percent shooting. The Pacers are able to slot George Hill and Paul George onto Lowry and DeRozan and stay home on Toronto’s shooters, who aren’t exactly setting any nets on fire either.
Lowry and DeRozan are too good to be held to under 30 points for a second straight game. But the Raptors are going to need someone else to step up in order to even the series at one.
5. The Heat looked like the Warriors on offense — and there’s no reasons for the Hornets to panic
Things couldn’t have gone any better for Miami.
Miami’s Offensive Rating of 142.6 tonight was their highest in any game this season. Their OReb% of 40 was second-highest this year.
— Couper Moorhead (@CoupNBA) April 18, 2016
There were points, including 31 from Luol Deng. There were smiles, including some from the sidelined Chris Bosh on the bench. Hassan Whiteside (21 points, 11 rebounds, three blocks) had a monster game.
Everything went right for the Heat and nothing went right for the Hornets — which is exactly why it’s important to remember that this was just Game 1. Charlotte was one of the best three-point shooting teams in the league this year, yet connected on just six of their 17 deep looks on Sunday. Their usually solid defense was as leaky as a Steve Clifford unit has ever been. Sure, Miami looked great. But this is a dynamic Hornets team that went 21-8 after the All-Star Game and had the league’s third-best net rating (point differential per 100 possessions) over that span. Don’t write them off just because of a single ugly game.
"He's a tough cover when he's picking & popping." – Coach Lue on @kevinlove's impact today at the 5#ALLin216https://t.co/RBnmNH1Hme
— Cleveland Cavaliers (@cavs) April 17, 2016
6. The Pistons had a major weakness exposed
The Pistons put up a strong fight Sunday against Cleveland in what was a great back-and-forth game. But early in the fourth quarter, the Cavaliers slid Kevin Love over to center, a minor adjustment that could end Detroit’s season.
“Kevin at the 5 is tough for them to try to defend,” Cleveland head coach Tyronn Lue said afterwards, via ESPN. “That play, I think we manufactured probably 10 points in a row just running that play alone. It was a big play for us and putting Kevin at the 5 was a big adjustment for us.”
The move erased Andre Drummond’s impact, and a seven-point lead, and handed the Cavs a 106-101 Game 1 win.
“He spreads the floor out and it makes it tough in pick-and-rolls for your 5s to get out there,” Pistons coach Stan Van Gundy said after the game. “We didn’t cover [Love] well, even when do cover, then we’ve got our center away from the basket. We’ve got the best rebounder in the game and we’re playing him 25 feet [from the basket].”
This is going to be the dilemma Van Gundy faces for the rest of the series. Will he remove Drummond, slot a player like Tobias Harris onto Love and call for switches on pick-and-rolls? Will he try to hide Drummond on Shumpert and dare the Cavs’ 6th option to beat them? Does he have another wrinkle up his sleeve? Drummond’s size and interior skills are the lone advantages the Pistons have over the Cavs. It’s on Van Gundy to now figure out a way to put Drummond back in a position where he can thrive.
7. BOBAN!
This!
And this!
https://vine.co/v/itl3D6DJLMe
That’s all the analysis this game, and series, needs.
Gaahdamn 👀 https://t.co/AwwvZM4wd2
— SLAM (@SLAMonline) April 18, 2016
8. Blake Griffin is ready to go
Griffin, as we all know, missed the majority of the regular season and struggled from the field in his week of action after returning to the court prior to the playoffs. That’s why his strong performance Sunday night against the Blazers was so noteworthy. Griffin finished with 19 points, 12 rebounds and six assists. He got to the foul line 12 times. He was active and efficient, and while Chris Paul finished with a team-high 28 points, it was Griffin who set the tone early on. If he is, indeed, at full strength the Clippers could make things interesting this postseason.
