The Indiana Pacers moved on from head coach Frank Vogel on Thursday, opening up a new era for the franchise. The team currently has good pieces in place, and hiring the right coach could go a long way for them.
Former Denver Nuggets coach Brian Shaw and current Pacers assistant Nate McMillan are the first two obvious names that come to mind for the job, and I think Indiana fans would be mostly all right with either of the two. Either way, the Pacers took a good Toronto Raptors team to seven games, in a series that they probably should have won. They just couldn’t finish it.
So after a season in which the Pacers overachieved by some standards, and now making a head coaching change, the team has some decisions to consider and some building to do.
The Pacers have four of five starters from the 2015-16 season under contract for next year. Ian Mahinmi, a guy who didn’t get enough consideration for the league’s Most Improved Player, is entering unrestricted free agency. Re-signing him would probably be a good first step for the Pacers this offseason, and he has expressed his desires to stay in Indiana. At the very least, it’s good to have that core of starting players back.
One thing that could bite the Pacers this offseason is the unlikely scenario in which they re-sign Solomon Hill, who really came along towards the end of the season and played great against the Raptors in the playoffs. The team decided not to pick up his option back in November and that will cost them now, as he will certainly be able to command more money this summer. The final year of Hill’s rookie deal would have cost the Pacers just $2.3 million, but ESPN’s Ian Begley says that Hill’s value is now $7-9 million per year, according to one league general manager. The most the Pacers can pay him is $2.35 million.
In the NBA Draft, the Pacers will have the 20th pick in the first round, and the 50th pick in the second round. While they aren’t the best picks, the team will probably look to improve their offense. Indiana has done well with its first-round picks the past five years, so that should leave fans optimistic, despite not having a lottery pick. The team was always good defensively under Vogel, but a lack of offensive consistency always plagued the Pacers. Expect their first-rounder to have some sort of offensive arsenal.
However, the biggest thing to look for in the Pacers offseason might be what they do in free agency. Team president Larry Bird’s biggest wish was for Vogel to mirror the small ball that the Golden State Warriors have had success with. He wanted Paul George to play power forward, but he resisted and eventually moved back to small forward. Bird’s stance on that doesn’t seem to have changed, and trying to implement that again this offseason shouldn’t be a surprise.
Looking at free agent small forwards that the Pacers could sign, I think it’s pretty safe to say that we can rule out LeBron James and Kevin Durant. James is expected to stay in Cleveland, and if Durant goes anywhere, it’s likely not going to be Indiana.
That @hbarnes dunk (with replay) though! pic.twitter.com/1RS3xeH3cb
— Golden State Warriors (@warriors) May 4, 2016
So that leaves a few other options that would probably be welcome additions for Bird and the Pacers. The first option has to be Harrison Barnes in this particular situation. If Bird really wants to try to emulate what the Warriors have done, Barnes has to be his top choice. It would only make sense. Whether or not Indiana has a realistic shot at Barnes is another question, as he’s looking to become more of a main option if he decides to leave the Warriors. The Pacers might find the price he demands to be too high.
Another option could be Chandler Parsons, although the price on him might be too steep as well. Parsons has been a good piece in Dallas and could fit in well in Indiana. But if the Pacers want somebody who actually had better numbers than Parsons, and could perhaps get him for a lower price, then they should look at Nicolas Batum. The Hornets are set on re-signing Batum, but you have to give the Pacers a chance. Batum and Ian Mahinmi have the same agent in Bouna Ndiaye.
The three aforementioned players would be a best-case scenario for the Pacers. Bird is taking a pretty big chance in letting Vogel walk, and faces a big task in trying to replicate what is happening in Oakland with the Warriors. That’s not to say it’s impossible, but we’ve seen plenty of other teams try to do the same and they just haven’t been able to get the personnel. That’s part of what makes the Warriors so special.
The Pacers are hardly in one of the worst positions in the NBA with their future up in the air. With some great pieces in place, this might be the most fixable situation in the league, with some of the best upside. At the same time, Indiana is raising more questions to be raised as to how bright that future could be. But there’s no doubt the next head coach is inheriting a pretty good gig to get rolling with.
To ensure they don’t take a step back in 2016-17, a good coaching hire and additions to complement the pieces already in place will be key. With those moves, the Pacers could find themselves up near the top of the Eastern Conference once again. If they don’t succeed, there will be a lot of finger pointing in Larry Bird’s direction.
