Ever since the college football season kicked off back in September, the only question on everyone’s mind has been: “Which team is going to win the College Football Playoff?”
While this should be one of the most exciting games in college football history, I expect Clemson to emerge victorious. Here is a list of five reasons why the Tigers will beat Alabama:
5. Clemson has done well as an underdog in the postseason
While many experts want to give Alabama credit for what it has done in the postseason (national championships in 2009, 2011 and 2012), they tend to ignore what Clemson has accomplished during bowl season over the past three years. In 2012, the Tigers upset No. 9 LSU, 25-24, in a Chick-Fil-A Bowl contest virtually no one thought they had a chance to win. The following season, Clemson upset another top-10 opponent when it defeated No. 6 Ohio State in the 2014 Orange Bowl, 40-35. That victory was the first time in the Buckeyes’ storied history when they scored 35 or more points and lost, snapping a 280-game unbeaten streak (279-0-1).
Coupling those wins with their first round victory over Oklahoma – which was technically an upset since the Sooners entered the contest as 3.5-point underdog – the Tigers have won their last three postseason games against top-10 opponents. Given this string of success as an underdog, and the fact that it’s happened much more recently than Alabama’s most recent national championship (2012), the experience factor has to be squarely in the Tigers’ favor.
In other words: Been there, done that.
4. Clemson has fared well against elite competition; Alabama not as much.
A lot of experts think that Alabama has the edge over Clemson because its played a tougher schedule.
However, the opposite is actually the true.
Yes, you read that correctly: the ACC team played a tougher slate than the SEC team.
But, don’t take my word for it, just look at the final College Football Playoff standings. According to these rankings – which are the only ones that actually count under the current system – Clemson has perfect 4-0 record against the top 10, defeating No. 4 Oklahoma, No. 8 Notre Dame, No. 9 Florida State, and No. 10 North Carolina. By comparison, Alabama played just one top 10 team, defeating No. 3 Michigan State in the first round of the playoffs. In addition, the Tide lost their only other contest with a team in the top 15, suffering a 43-37 defeat against No. 12 Mississippi.
To restate the last paragraph another way, the Tigers played twice as many top 15 opponents as Alabama did…and it won all of those contests.
Why is that important? It’s simple: the best way to measure greatness is to look at how a team performs against top-quality competition. Since the Tigers have beaten four top-10 opponents, it’s safe to say that they’re much more battle tested than Alabama is. In a game of this magnitude, experience matters.
3. Deshaun Watson is the most athletic quarterback in college football.
Make no mistake about it: Watson is the most dangerous signal caller in the land. Whether it’s with his arm, his feet, or a combination of both, he’ll keep the chains moving and make opposing defensive coordinators pull their hair out.
A quick look at this stat sheet will bear this out. Although he didn’t run the ball much during the first half of the season, Watson still managed to rush for 1,032 yards this fall. His rushing numbers always improved as the situations got more difficult, as he’s averaging 100.14 yards per game and 5.99 yards per carry in road/neutral contests and 119 yards per game and 5.95 yards per carry against ranked opponents.
His passing numbers are just as impressive. For the season, Watson is completing 68.2% of his passes for 3,699 yards and a solid 31/12 TD-to-INT ratio. He’s been especially effective on first and second downs this year, completing 246 of 337 attempts (72.9%) for 2,805 yards. More importantly, Watson has played well with the game on the line, 70% of his passes and posting a solid 18/6 TD-to-INT ratio when the game is within seven points either way.
Of course, here’s the best statistic that Watson has that no one is talking about: Clemson is 18-1 in games he started. The lone loss during that span was a 28-6 defeat against Georgia Tech, in which Watson left due to injury in the first quarter.
That’s right, the Tigers have never lost a game that Watson started and finished. It’s hard to argue with those results. Expect to see his versatility cause problems for the Alabama defense, which has struggled at times with mobile quarterbacks, as well as former Clemson signal callers (Chad Kelly) for that matter.
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2. Defense wins championships… and Clemson’s is very good.
Even if – and it’s a big if – the Tiger offense should struggle, the defense is more than capable of winning this game. Sure, Alabama heads into this contest ranked second nationally in total defense, but Clemson is right behind them at number six, allowing just 301.6 yards per contest.
In other words: the Tiger defense is every bit as good as Alabama’s… if not better.
The Clemson front seven is certainly good enough to stop Derrick Henry. While he’s had a great season, Henry has yet to play a defense that’s as solid and as deep as the Tiger front seven is. Led by Shaq Lawson (23.5), Kevin Dodd (18.5), and B.J. Goodson (14), Clemson led the nation in tackles for a loss this year, making 117 stops behind the line of scrimmage. This unit absolutely took over the game against Oklahoma – which averages more yards per carry and more yards per game than the Crimson Tide – racking up nine tackles for a loss, while holding the Sooners to a season-low 67 yards.
There’s no reason to think that this trend wont continue against Alabama. After all, the Crimson Tide offensive line ranked 111th nationally in tackles for loss allowed, surrendering an average of 6.57 per game. That hardly sounds like a unit that’s ready to block a front seven that leads the nation in negative plays.
Unless Alabama comes up with a way to keep the Tiger front seven out of the backfield, it will have to play behind the sticks most of the evening. That’s going to be an uphill climb against a Clemson defense that ranks second nationally in third down conversion percentage, allowing the opposition to convert on just 25% of its chances. Given that Jake Coker has completed just 58.8% of his passes on third down (compared to over 70% on first and second down), and only one-third of those completions went for first downs, the Tigers have to like their chances in that situation.
1. Clemson is the best team in the country in responding to adversity.
Let’s be honest: championship caliber teams know how to respond to when things don’t go well. Whether it’s a trick play to put the team down early, an injury to a key player, a head scratching miscue on special teams, or something else that shifts the momentum in the contest, a championship team will find a way to adapt and overcome these hurdles.
The Tigers have already proven that they can do this on the big stage. Remember, in the first round of the playoffs, Clemson lost star defensive end Shaq Lawson on the second series of the game due to an injury. While the absence of the best player on defense would decimate most teams, it didn’t phase the Tiger D one bit. Clemson’s front seven won the line of scrimmage for the rest of the afternoon, recording five sacks and limiting Oklahoma to just 67 yards rushing.
Of course, this effort shouldn’t surprise anyone, as the Tigers have been doing this all season long. In fact, Clemson has been so resilient in the face of adversity that it has never trailed by more than seven points in any game this season. By comparison, even 2013-’14 Florida State – which beat its foes by an amazing 39.4 points per game – still managed to find itself trailing by double digits during that national championship campaign (21-3 to Auburn in the BCS title game).
If that doesn’t speak volumes about how good this Clemson team is, what does?
