Assuming all the NCAA Tournament regions are varieties of meat, the East Region is an expired bag of beef jerky found at a rest stop in Chalmers, Ind. In other words, it’s going to be tough cutting through it.
The East features the ACC and SEC tournament champions (and the ACC regular season champ); the Big Ten regular season champ, and very recently top-five ranked Xavier. One could make a legitimate case for three to four of these teams having a realistic shot at a title.
If you believe in myths like Nessie or NCAA tournament venue importance, don’t worry in this region. It culminates in the City of Brotherly Love and none of the Philly schools were put in the East. The sex appeal throughout the region in possible match-ups is nothing short of delicious. Kentucky could meet Indiana, who act like scorned lovers since their break-up … for the right to play North Carolina, the top seed and fellow college hoops blue blood. West Virginia could tussle with Michigan and their old coach, John Beilein. There is much meat and potatoes to this group, probably the toughest region in the tournament.
1. North Carolina (28-6)
As much as we like to trumpet the open-ness of the NCAA tournament, since 2005, teams named Connecticut, North Carolina, or Duke have won the title seven times. If you add Florida, it’s nine. The oldest public university in the country’s basketball team is set up well again under Roy Williams, led by Brice Johnson, who averages around 17 points and 11 rebounds, and star guard Marcus Paige. The potential Achilles (Tar) Heel? The three point shooting isn’t great, and shooting comes at a premium annually when the March Madness lights go on. Still, they can get it done.
Chances of advancing past the first round: Roughly the same as your local Chick Fil A being closed on Sunday.
Chances of advancing past the first weekend: See above.
Chances of advancing to the Final Four: This is a salty region, with cagey coaches all over the joint, specifically at Kentucky and West Virginia, who will (probably) be the teams UNC has to go through to get there. Their path to the Sweet 16 is much easier than the rest, though, so call it 30 percent.
Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: Back in 1924, their kicker used to rub an actual ram’s head for good luck. If they bring that tradition back, the odds increase immensely.
2. Xavier Musketeers (27-5)
Ever heard the phrase “I’d rather eat glass than …”? It’s the Xavier diet, as they’re top 20 in rebound margin and average over 13 offensive boards per game. Trevon Bluiett is the only player who racks up over 30 minutes a game, so Chris Mack’s team is diverse and physical without relying too much on one player to carry the load.
Chances of advancing past the first round: About the same as John Boehner (an XU alum) not having pale skin as you read this.
Chances of advancing past the first weekend: They shouldn’t need the guy who created the Heimlich maneuver (who was XU faculty for 13 years) because of choking concerns.
Chances of advancing to the Final Four: Something less than the Blue Blob appearing in Playboy, which actually happened at one point.
Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: Better than McDonald’s bringing the Arch Deluxe back, but with Kentucky, North Carolina, and WVU in the region, they’re “meh” at most.
3. West Virginia Mountaineers (26-8)
Fast paced and frantic, Bob Huggins’ team is a whole ‘nother animal for teams who haven’t faced them, or had the chance to prepare for them. Between their constant press and excellent defensive positioning, forcing you to your off-hand and making life generally uncomfortable, Jaysean Paige and Devin Williams lead a deep, physical group. They’re fourth in the nation in turnover margin.
Chances of advancing past the first round: Somewhere between “decent” and “excellent.”
Chances of advancing past the first weekend: The match-ups favor WVU both in the first and second rounds.
Chances of advancing to the Final Four: It will take some doing, especially because likely opponents North Carolina or Kentucky should be able to somewhat handle their pace, but not impossible.
Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: Reasonably the same as LFO winning a Grammy Award.
4. Kentucky Wildcats (26-8)
The Wildcats are deep, talented, and probably overlooked going into this tournament versus what they have been in recent seasons. Even in their NCAA final run a few years ago as an 8-seed, it feels like they were talked about more. John Calipari has quietly turned into a “tournament coach.” Led by Tyler Ulis and Jamal Murray in the back court, no one can blame you for being bullish again.
Chances of advancing past the first round: Somewhere below but very near having an alum that’s the current U.S. Senate Majority Leader (Mitch McConnell).
Chances of advancing past the first weekend: Having them play IU would be fun, since they’re like the guy and girl who won’t go to where the other is working since their breakup and instead will drive 30 miles out of the way to avoid it, but decent.
Chances of advancing to the Final Four: Somewhere above McConnell and his Senate pals voting to confirm a Supreme Court justice in 2016.
Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: Mildly reasonable.
5. Indiana Hoosiers (25-7)
The Hoosiers come and go behind senior leader point guard Yogi Ferrell, who logs nearly 10 more minutes per game than anyone else on the team. Tom Crean’s club is 11th in the country in scoring offense, and boast a deep, diverse roster that’s a healthy mix of extreme athleticism (Troy Williams) and dead-eye shooting (Robert Johnson, Nick Zeisloft), but Ferrell is the coal that makes the engine go, assuming we’re still using coal-powered engines.
Chances of advancing past the first round: It won’t be as difficult as putting away Vincennes for the right to be considered the “legitimate state university.” That lasted from 1820 to 1889.
Chances of advancing past the first weekend: They probably have a 50/50 shot against Kentucky, as one half of the couple the whole town wants to see set aside their issues and get back together.
Chances of advancing to the Final Four: IU’s Lilly Library hosts one of the world’s largest collections of miniature books, so … a slightly higher percentage than the size of those books to normal books.
Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: The library also holds one of 25 existing copies of the First Printing of the Declaration of Independence, so a percentage somewhere above your ability to get your hands on one of the other 24.
6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (21-11)
You’d best be ahead of Notre Dame late, as the Irish are 43rd best in the nation in free throw percentage. The school is 9-10 in the tournament under Mike Brey. Demetrius Jackson and double-double machine Zach Auguste (14.4 ppg and 10.8 rpg) lead an Irish team that doesn’t lack starting five talent, but has serious depth issues.
Chances of advancing past the first round: Decent, unless they get in foul trouble.
Chances of advancing past the first weekend: Not a huge fan of their odds. Their top scorer off the bench averages 6 fewer ppg than the lowest point-getter in the starting five.
Chances of advancing to the Final Four: Nope, and if so, you’ll see a sudden surge in Catholicism.
Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: Short of the Pope naming a patron saint of depth issues to fix this problem, it’s not likely.
7. Wisconsin Badgers (20-12)
Under Bo Ryan, the Badgers were traditionally cranky to have to play against this time of year. Under his long-time assistant turned now head coach Greg Gard, who knows if we’ll see the exact same? Versatile forward Nigel Hayes and guard Bronson Koenig are their go-to folks.
Chances of advancing past the first round: Wisconsin lives to overachieve. So I’d say fairly decent.
Chances of advancing past the first weekend: Not a huge fan of their odds. Their top scorer off the bench averages 6 fewer ppg than the lowest point-getter in the starting five.
Chances of advancing to the Final Four: They’re not cranky enough for this. It requires Bernie Sanders-level crank.
Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: Same as the aforementioned Sanders winning a caucus of only billionaires and millionaires.
8. Southern California (21-12)
Andy Enfield didn’t take off running in his current gig. USC being where they are is a mild surprise, but the danger in them lies in their offensive socialism … six players average around 10 points or more per game. There is no one player to take away with this team.
Chances of advancing past the first round: Providence will be tough, but the match-up is about even.
Chances of advancing past the first weekend: They have a shot against UNC, if only because UNC’s defense isn’t amazing and they can shoot the ball from deep pretty well enough to keep it close.
Chances of advancing to the Final Four: Enfield coaches well to emotion when he can get it going with a head of steam. Weirder things have happened.
Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: It’s not an amazing one, but it’s somewhere above grass’ shot against a mower.
9. Providence Friars (23-10)
Your issue here is the combination of Kris Dunn and Ben Bentil. A more potent guard-forward punch you probably will not find. They play off one another perfectly, and as opposed to their first round opponent, are individual game changers. No socialism here. Ed Cooley and friends have a difficult team to plan for.
Chances of advancing past the first round: Put it somewhere above 50 percent.
Chances of advancing past the first weekend: Providence is 31st best in the nation in not committing fouls. They’ll need all of that to deal with offensively-electric UNC.
Chances of advancing to the Final Four: It’s probably somewhere around the same of an outhouse at a music festival smelling good, but it’s not totally impossible.
Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: Well, I suppose you could get to the outhouse first …
10. Pittsburgh Panthers (21-11)
Much like Wisconsin, Pitt’s style is less Mila Kunis, more Rosanne Barr, but it has consistently worked for them. They’re loaded with depth, with 10 players playing at least 29 games at over 11 minutes per. They have only one player that averages over 31 minutes a game (guard James Robinson). Jamie Dixon and Pitt will be looking to shake recent March malaise, having not been to the second weekend since 2009.
Chances of advancing past the first round: Somewhere less than Wisconsin, who overachieves more than Pitt this time of year.
Chances of advancing past the first weekend: Somewhere less than Wisconsin and Xavier.
Chances of advancing to the Final Four: The school motto is “Truth and Virtue,” and it wouldn’t be virtuous or truthful to suggest there’s a great shot here.
Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: Somewhere less than the odds a polio outbreak, which, thanks, Pitt, for being the place where the vaccine was developed.
11. Michigan/Tulsa Winner
People hate the fact that Tulsa is in, which is galvanizing to them, one would imagine. For Michigan, John Beilein is one of the best tacticians in the sport, and with Derrick Walton Jr. at the point, the Wolverines could easily make noise.
Chances of advancing past the first round: In this spot, we’re taking Michigan, so it’s reasonable. Beilein has a 16-9 tournament record and tends to get the most out of his teams around this time.
Chances of advancing past the first weekend: The Wolverines will need to be creative to do so, much more than their last game against Purdue, to do so.
Chances of advancing to the Final Four: It’s possible, more-so than just saying “well if they show up …”, so that’s something.
Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: The same as Jim Harbaugh’s odds on waking up tomorrow as too laid-back and passive aggressive.
12. Chattanooga Mocs (29-5)
The Mocs were a 12 seed in 1997 … and went to the Sweet 16. Their mascot is named “Scrappy” and it aptly describes this defensive-minded group are hoping for a similar result. Led by a veteran roster featuring eight rotation upperclassmen, they forced turnovers on over 20 percent of their defensive possessions under first year coach Matt McCall, posting up an 29-5 record in spite of losing their leading scorer in December.
Chances of advancing past the first round: Don’t expect IU to take it easy on the alum of the actor who played Ward Cleaver.
Chances of advancing past the first weekend: Not significantly better than them bringing back an actual shoe as their mascot, which was used during portions of the 1960s and 70s.
Chances of advancing to the Final Four: Take the odds of them having one of the top 100 most powerful supercomputers on campus (100 percent) and subtract 99 from that and you have your percentage, probably.
Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: If you’re a Mathlete, take the above number and divide it in half.
13. Stony Brook Seawolves (23-10)
One of the more charming stores of the tournament will be Stony Brook, which, there are no wolves that swim in seas near as I can tell. Steve Pikiell’s team is without question driven through Jameel Warney, who leads the team in points, rebounds and blocks. Shut him down, and away you go.
Chances of advancing past the first round: Kentucky is a pretty salty match-up for this group, so don’t bet on it.
Chances of advancing past the first weekend: Same as above, only less.
Chances of advancing to the Final Four: 95 percent of Stony Brook students were in the top half of their graduating class. Reverse that and add three percentages and you have their shot.
Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: Same as above, only less, if the math makes it possible.
14. Stephen F. Austin (27-5)
You’d be hard pressed (pun intended) to figure WVU would play a team even better than them at causing turnovers, but SFA leads the country in that category. Coach Brad Underwood’s Lumberjacks are led by physical, do it all forward Thomas Walkup, who pulls in over 17 points, 6 rebounds, and 4 assists per game.
Chances of advancing past the first round: WVU isn’t an ideal match-up for them, so don’t bet on it.
Chances of advancing past the first weekend: If they somehow got past WVU, you could make the case, but that’s not my sell job.
Chances of advancing to the Final Four: The actual Stephen F. Austin was dead broke from the Panic of 1819 and still colonized Texas, and in 1819 he had better odds of winding up doing that than SFA does at the Final Four.
Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: Some percentage near what was in Stephen’s billfold during the aforementioned Panic of 1819.
15. Weber State Wildcats (26-8)
The Wildcats boast one of the best duos in the country in Jeremy Senglin and Joel Bolomboy, who average a stout nearly 36 ppg betwixt the two. No other player comes within nine of them on the roster. So, time to bust out that Triangle and Two, Xavier. Both players turn the ball over a bit much probably for coach Randy Rahe’s liking, so they’ll need to cut that down to have a shot.
Chances of advancing past the first round: Nil unless Bolomboy and Senglin go into God mode.
Chances of advancing past the first weekend: Same as their odds of staying in a Motel 6 on road games, seeing as J.W. Marriott is one of their alums.
Chances of advancing to the Final Four: Same as getting a PETA endorsement, since the school is named after the county it resides in which is named after a fur trader.
Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: Somewhere around the same odds as Nickelback making a decent song.
16. Fairleigh Dickinson (18-14)
Give Greg Herenda credit. The team won 10 and 8 games respectively his first two seasons there, but he clearly found a culture change this season on the way to 18 wins. Darian Anderson and Earl Potts Jr. carry the load, averaging over 27 points per game combined.
Chances of advancing past the first round: As long as you show up, you have a chance.
Chances of advancing past the first weekend: See above.
Chances of advancing to the Final Four: Same as alum Zygi Wilf cheering for the Packers at any point, ever.
Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: Roughly the same as you getting with Miranda Lambert shortly after you read this column.
