EUGENE, OR – JANUARY 13: Puddles, the mascot, takes part in the opening ceremony beofre the Oregon Ducks versus the USC Trojans game at the grand opening of the Matthew Knight Arena on January 13, 2011 at Matthew Knight Arena in Eugene, Oregon. (Photo by Jonathan Ferrey/Getty Images)
NCAABy Yesh Ginsburg on

This year’s West Region of the NCAA tournament features a first in tournament history–the Oregon Ducks have a No. 1 seed. The NCAA began giving seeds to teams with the 1979 edition of the tournament (when 40 teams competed), but the Ducks have never received a top seed in a region in the previous 37 years. That drought is now over, with the Ducks being granted the top seed out west.

The advantages or disadvantages of geography are often overstated in the NCAA tournament, but being given the first two rounds in Spokane, and then the Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight in Anaheim (should the Ducks advance that far), certainly cannot hurt Oregon’s chances.

In an interesting quirk in the bottom of this region, a lot of teams from the Southwest will be playing their opening games in Oklahoma City. Teams like Texas, Oklahoma, and Texas A&M will probably get relatively friendly crowds as they try to avoid early-round upsets. Of course, maybe the fans from Oklahoma City will just show up in droves to root against Texas–Northern Iowa is certainly dreaming of that possibility. The committee also decided to give us a potential regular-season rematch in the Round of 32 (which I will refer to as the second round from now on, even if the NCAA technically calls it Round 3), which they are supposed to avoid, just because it would be Texas against Texas A&M.

Duke is the No. 4 seed in this region and were therefore given an early-round pod in Providence, Rhode Island. (Yeah, I know; the first real round of the whole tournament kicks off with a West Region game being played on the East Coast. I don’t understand how this works, either.) The Blue Devils have a relatively short way to travel and should get some crowd advantage, especially if they face 5-seeded Baylor in the second round.

 

1. Oregon (28-6)

As I mentioned to start, the Ducks received their first-ever No. 1 seed. They also won the first-ever NCAA basketball tournament, back in 1939. Are these two stats related? Nope. Are they still cool? Well, I think so.

Chances of advancing past the first round: Unless Oregon wants to make more history by being the first 1 to ever lose to a 16, this is a guarantee.

Chances of advancing past the first weekend: Cincinnati or St. Joseph’s are decent opponents, but Dana Altman’s team is too good to lose here.

Chances of advancing to the Final Four: Duke, Oklahoma, or Texas A&M could present a real challenge, and Oklahoma will probably actually be favored if the two meet. Chances are decent, probably the highest in the region.

Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: There is no great team this year. If Oregon can reach the Final 4, why not?

 

2. Oklahoma (25-7)

Oklahoma might be the 2nd seed, but Lon Kruger’s Sooners are the highest-rated team in this region in Kenpom. Of course, if the committee cared about adjusted efficiency rankings, Wichita State wouldn’t be in a play-in game.

Chances of advancing past the first round: 15s almost never beat 2s. And when they do, it’s because the 2 has a major flaw. Oklahoma doesn’t, so it will win this game easily.

Chances of advancing past the first weekend: The second round against VCU would be much trickier than against Oregon State, but Oklahoma should beat either of those two.

Chances of advancing to the Final Four: Not as high as we would have guessed early in the year and the path is pretty tough. Wouldn’t be surprising in the slightest to see it happen, though.

Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: I saw odds online that said 20-1. Oklahoma can win it all, but a full 5% chance? That feels too high to me.

 

3. Texas A&M (26-8)

The Aggies lost five out of six games from January 27th until February 13th. Take out that skid and we’re looking at the resume belonging to a 1 seed for Billy Kennedy’s squad.

Chances of advancing past the first round: Green Bay played its best basketball of the season in the Horizon League tournament. If the Phoenix bring that to Oklahoma City, there is a small (very small) chance that the Aggies are left in the ashes.

Chances of advancing past the first weekend: The Aggies already beat Texas once this year. And I have a feeling they would rather face the Longhorns than UNI (I’ll get to that later).

Chances of advancing to the Final Four: Play like that 2-week skid never happened and there is a fair chance.

Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: Odds are pretty low, but this team does have championship-caliber potential.  

 

4. Duke (23-10)

Remember that time the selection committee gave Duke a 4 seed with ten losses? Bizarre, right? I don’t get it either.

Chances of advancing past the first round: Seeing as the Blue Devils drew North Carolina in the first round, not high. Wait, it’s UNC-Wilmington? Yeah, it would be embarrassing for the defending champions to lose this one. It’s not like it’s against Mercer or anything.

Chances of advancing past the first weekend: Duke/Baylor, assuming both teams win their first games, will be a pretty even matchup. So I’d put the chances at close to 50%.

Chances of advancing to the Final Four: When the season started we thought it would be high. Now, unlikely at best.

Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: I will never doubt Coack K, but a repeat is not in the cards for this year.

 

5. Baylor (22-11)

Duke gets a 4 seed with ten losses, so Baylor gets a five with 11. That makes sense. Whatever. Scott Drew has the Bears in the NCAA tournament for the third straight year. That has never happened before in school history.

Chances of advancing past the first round: It’s a 12/5 game and Yale doesn’t want to waste its first Dance in 56 years. Baylor should win, but it will be tough.

Chances of advancing past the first weekend: Same as what I said for Duke, but probably a little under 50% for Baylor because of the harder first-round opponent.

Chances of advancing to the Final Four: This team has a ton of talent and Oregon is beatable, but it’s not at all likely.

Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: It would take a miracle close to (but not quite) the size of Texas.  

 

6. Texas (20-12)

Duke has ten losses, Baylor has 11, and Texas has… 12, right? Yep, 12. I’m seeing a trend here. Shaka Smart is in the tournament in his first year rebuilding this team.

Chances of advancing past the first round: I would say that they are fairly high, and they are, but keep an eye on what I write about UNI later.

Chances of advancing past the first weekend: Getting by UNI will be difficult enough. Texas A&M will almost definitely end Texas’ tournament run.

Chances of advancing to the Final Four: No chance. It’s not like Shaka Smart is the same coach who took a VCU team with less talent than this to a Final Four.

Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: It would take a miracle much, much bigger than the size of Texas.

 

7. Oregon State (19-12)

Oregon State has an up-and-coming coach named Wayne Tinkle and a Top 30 RPI. That’s about it. The selection committee had a serious crush on the Pac 12 this year.

Chances of advancing past the first round: Probably less than 50%, facing VCU in the first round.

Chances of advancing past the first weekend: Beating VCU will be difficult enough. Beating Oklahoma would be a Herculean task.

Chances of advancing to the Final Four: Does reaching the Final Four vicariously through Oregon count?

Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: Maybe next year, but probably not then either.  

 

8. Saint Joseph’s (27-7)

Phil Martelli is in his 21st season as head coach. The Hawks seemed to struggle in February and March before coming back to win the Atlantic 10 tournament. Maybe that will give them some momentum in this tournament.

Chances of advancing past the first round: I think the Hawks are a better team than Cincinnati and the committee agreed. Barely.

Chances of advancing past the first weekend: I honestly think Saint Joe’s is the 8-seed with the best chance of upsetting a No. 1. So how likely does that make it? Not very.

Chances of advancing to the Final Four: Does reaching the Final Four vicariously through Villanova count?

Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: Not going to happen for a very, very long time.

 

9. Cincinnati (22-10)

Mick Cronin has the Bearcats in their sixth consecutive NCAA tournament. He only has one Sweet 16 in that span, though.

Chances of advancing past the first round: It should be a good game against Saint Joe’s. It’s definitely winnable.

Chances of advancing past the first weekend: You see that Mick Cronin Sweet 16 stat above? Well, it’s continuing this year.

Chances of advancing to the Final Four: Does reaching the Final Four of the NIT vicariously through Ohio State count?

Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: Mick Cronin has this team headed in the right direction, so maybe sometime within a decade.  

 

10. VCU (24-11)

Will Wade has some Texas-sized shoes to fill, replacing Shaka Smart as coach. Taking a 10-seed to the Final Four would be a good start. Can it happen?

Chances of advancing past the first round: It’s a 7/10 game, but VCU is probably a slight favorite.

Chances of advancing past the first weekend: Come on. When has VCU ever beaten a top-seeded Big 12 team in the NCAA tournament?

Chances of advancing to the Final Four: Does reaching the Final Four vicariously through Virginia count?

Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: Probably about the same as the odds were when the tournament started in 2011.

 

11. Northern Iowa (22-12)

I’ve been having fun so far with this preview (hopefully you have, too), but this is where I get completely serious. Ben Jacobson has built a heck of a program and this team is just another example. Since it hit its stride in January, UNI has been one of the best teams in the country in defensive efficiency.

Chances of advancing past the first round: Look, Texas is the favorite and I will never deny that. That doesn’t make UNI any less dangerous.

Chances of advancing past the first weekend: Texas A&M is a very good team. UNI has the defense to keep this game very tight, though.

Chances of advancing to the Final Four: Look, it’s not likely–but if we are going to see a crazy Cinderella this year, I’m guessing it’s the team from Cedar Falls.

Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: Even with a miracle, a national championship is a little too far to stretch. Still, any Final Four team will have a chance.  

 

12. Yale (22-6)

Yale is in the tournament for the first time in over five decades. With a Kenpom adjusted defensive efficiency ranking of No. 21, James Jones’ Bulldogs might be the prime 12/5 upset pick.

Chances of advancing past the first round: Not great, but the Ivy has done a good job at getting first-round upsets in recent years.

Chances of advancing past the first weekend: I’m gonna guess that Yale’s first tournament since the 1950s won’t last more than one weekend.

Chances of advancing to the Final Four: Yale guys are smart. I’m sure someone on the team can calculate a curve whose limit approaches zero.

Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: Try again in another 56 years.

 

13. UNC-Wilmington (25-7)

Kevin Keatts has UNC-Wilmington in its first NCAA tournament in over a decade. It’s a season of firsts this tournament, apparently. UNCW will definitely be hoping for another first–its first-ever win over Duke in men’s basketball (the two have only played once before).

Chances of advancing past the first round: UNCW has one win in its postseason (including NIT and CIT) history. I don’t think it’s becoming two this year.

Chances of advancing past the first weekend: Not happening.

Chances of advancing to the Final Four: Does reaching the Final Four vicariously through North Carolina count?

Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: Keatts is building a strong program very quickly in Wilmington. If he stays for a while, maybe threatening for a championship isn’t a crazy goal for the future.  

 

14. Green Bay (23-12)

Linc Darner did an amazing job with the Phoenix this year, rising from the ashes of their regular season in the conference tournament (sorry, I couldn’t help myself).

Chances of advancing past the first round: This team is peaking at the right time, but that probably won’t be enough against Texas A&M.

Chances of advancing past the first weekend: One miracle upset should be the maximum we can hope for, right? And the Phoenix already came close to getting that against Valpo.

Chances of advancing to the Final Four: Does reaching the Final Four last year vicariously through Wisconsin count?

Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: Not happening, but some of these programs might make the Horizon a multi-bid league in the future.

 

15. Cal State Bakersfield (24-8)

The Roadrunners already got their upset, taking down New Mexico State in the WAC tournament final. Don’t ask for another one against Oklahoma, it’s not happening.

Chances of advancing past the first round: That depends. What are the chances of Buddy Hield transferring from Oklahoma and being granted a waiver to play immediately?

Chances of advancing past the first weekend: If Hield is playing for the Roadrunners, they have a legit shot. Since this is reality, though, it’s not happening.

Chances of advancing to the Final Four: Not even Hield could get this team to the Final Four. It’s still been a great year for the program, though.

Chances of winning the NCAA Tournament: Not in this universe.

 

16. Holy Cross (14-19)/ Southern (22-12)

I was taught that if I had nothing nice to say, I shouldn’t say anything at all. I definitely have nice things to say about the success these teams had this season and that they are moving their programs in the right direction, especially Holy Cross–the Crusaders saved their best basketball to March to earn this bid. Talking about either team’s chances of beating Oregon would just be mean, though, so I won’t do it.

About Yesh Ginsburg

Yesh has been a fan and student of college football since before he can remember. He spent years mastering the intricacies of the BCS and now keeps an eye on the national picture as teams jockey for College Football Playoff positioning.

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