It is still a little too early to begin our Bubble Watch or to look at specific scenarios for the College Football Playoff. By my count, there are still 33 teams alive in the CFP race. That’s too many to look at individual scenarios or rooting interests for, and there are just way too many possible permutations to really create any one scenario.
What we can do at this point, though, is look at conferences as a whole. Every conference has its dream scenario, and every one has its doomsday scenario. So we are going to look at the Power 5 conferences and highlight those best-case and worst-case scenarios.
ACC
Path to the Playoff
Teams still alive: Clemson, Georgia Tech, Miami (Florida), N.C. State, Virginia, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest
A week ago, the ACC could have counted itself in the same boat as the Big Ten and SEC. No one is a Playoff lock yet, but both of those conferences look relatively safe. It would take a pretty disastrous scenario for either to be left out at this point. The ACC was in the same boat last week, but it got halfway to disaster with Clemson’s loss Friday night. An even bigger disaster was averted when Miami miraculously came back to beat Georgia Tech.
So what is the ACC’s path to the Playoff? Clemson winning out is an easy one. Miami, Virginia Tech, and N.C. State winning out would also lock up a Playoff spot for the conference. Things get a little dicier if one-loss Virginia is the conference champion (let’s all take a moment to appreciate the incredible job Bronco Mendenhall has done in just two years), but the ACC has four potential one-loss champions who would essentially lock up a Playoff bid for the conference.
Path from the Playoff
In the span of one night, Clemson went from being the ACC’s best hope for the Playoff to being its biggest weakness. Clemson has an incredibly tough schedule — tough enough that even a second loss wouldn’t eliminate the Tigers — but four of Clemson’s last five games are definitely losable. The conference does not want to see an 11-2 champion. That is not the biggest disaster scenario, though. That would be N.C. State beating Clemson and winning the conference — but losing to Notre Dame. The Irish could knock a P5 conference from the Playoff at 11-1 (or even 10-2 with the right circumstances), their schedule is just that tough — and an 11-2 ACC champion with a loss to Notre Dame would be an easy bump.
Speaking of Notre Dame, the Irish also play Miami in the coming month. If Clemson can’t win out, then Notre Dame becomes the conference’s doomsday scenario. The Irish could single-handedly knock out two of the ACC’s top contenders, which would also hurt the eventual champion’s resume. ACC fans might want Notre Dame to beat Stanford and USC, but they have to root hard against the Irish when Notre Dame faces N.C. State and Miami.
Oh, and let’s not forget about Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets have the talent to beat anybody, but remaining games against Clemson and Georgia make winning out incredibly unlikely. All Georgia Tech can do is play spoiler and knock Virginia Tech (or Clemson) out of serious Playoff consideration. Of course, if the Yellow Jackets beat Georgia that would be worth it, as it would seriously impact a major SEC contender.
Big 12
Path to the Playoff
Teams still alive: Iowa State, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, TCU, Texas Tech
At this point, only two conferences have half of their membership still alive — the ACC and the Big 12. Of course, that isn’t the whole story. The Big 12 is in a much more precarious position than the ACC, though. The Big 12 has two teams that are essentially locks if they win out. Oklahoma and TCU control their own destinies at this point. Oklahoma, even with its recent struggles, still carries that win at Ohio State. TCU is undefeated and a lock at 13-0. Oklahoma State is not too far behind. Even with all three of its nonconference opponents failing to live up to expectations this year, the Cowboys should still be pretty safe at 12-1. Other than those three scenarios, though, things get pretty iffy for the league.
Path from the Playoff
The Big 12’s doomsday scenarios are significantly more realistic than its dream scenarios, which is never a good thing. Oklahoma still has a bunch of games it can lose, and hasn’t looked dominant since beating Ohio State. Iowa State, Texas Tech, and Texas suddenly all seem like teams that can upset the top squads any week. The Big 12 would need some serious nationwide chaos to get a two-loss champion in.
Oklahoma losing another game then winning the conference would be bad, but not awful. Oklahoma State losing another game then winning the conference would eliminate the Big 12. TCU losing a game and then getting upset in the CCG would eliminate the Big 12, as would TCU losing two games. West Virginia looks like a prime candidate to knock off Oklahoma State or Oklahoma. And, to top it all off, Iowa State still controls its conference destiny. That’s a doomsday scenario if I’ve ever seen one.
Pac-12
Path to the Playoff
Teams still alive: Arizona, Stanford, USC, Washington, Washington State
USC wins out. Washington wins out and hopes for trouble in the Big 12 (or another conference, but the Big 12 is most likely). Washington State wins out and hopes for major trouble in the Big 12. Stanford wins out and hopes that Notre Dame finishes at 10-2, wiping out both ACC Championship Game participants on the way. That’s basically it. Four scenarios for this conference to get in, barring some extreme chaos.
I know I left Arizona on the board, but the Wildcats’ prospects for getting in took a major hit when both Washington schools lost last week. Arizona would make an interesting case if it can win out in dominant fashion. The Wildcats would basically have to hope that the committee judges them as a different team with Khalil Tate. It’s not a crazy argument, and it really helps that both losses without him as quarterback were close ones to good teams.
Path from the Playoff
There are really too many to list. Let’s start with Notre Dame. The Irish could deal a major blow by beating USC this week. If they also beat Stanford in November, it wipes more quality wins away from conference teams. Really, though, every scenario in which one of the top four teams (USC, Washington, Washington State, and Stanford) doesn’t win out is doomsday. Stanford winning out isn’t ideal, but the Cardinal will have a great strength of schedule, and possibly a 5-2 record against year-end ranked teams.
Washington State winning out is also very iffy. The biggest margin of defeat by any Playoff team during the regular season was 14 (Ohio State against Virginia Tech in 2014, and that was on a late pick six in Week 2). In 2014, Oregon had a seven-point loss and Alabama lost by six. No Playoff team in 2015 came in with a loss by more than seven points. Washington lost a game by 13 last season before making the Playoff.
Now, it’s possible that these stats aren’t too meaningful — it’s not like we’ve had a plethora of one-loss teams with blowout losses get rejected. Generally, teams that lose in blowouts don’t manage to win every other game. It’s still something to keep an eye on. Will Washington State’s drubbing by Cal keep a 12-1 Cougars team out? I’d guess not (depending on the other candidates, as always), but it’s certainly not something the Pac-12 wants to risk seeing.
