This past week saw just the start of bubble chaos. Georgia fell to Auburn. Stanford all but eliminated Washington (and the Pac-12). Ohio State hopes it erased the memories of being beat down by Iowa. There are 14 teams remaining in contention, which means there are 14 resumes to look at. Several of those, though, will be eliminated in short order, no matter what those teams do. (Looking at you, Oklahoma State, Washington, and Michigan.)

In the Group of 5, the AAC has such a large lead in the resume department and no one else is really close. The only teams with any claims are the AAC champion or maybe (but not really) Boise State, and if the AAC Championship Game is 11-0 UCF (or 10-1 USF) vs 11-1 Memphis, there are no questions. Once that potential game is out of the way, I’ll start bringing out the resume for Boise State. But until that is no longer the likely AAC Championship Game, there is no reason to discuss the Group of 5.

How this works

Let’s give a quick review of how this works.

I include the rankings in yards per play of each team. On the one hand, the resume is which teams you have beaten, so I stick to only identifying the quality of wins and losses and show you each contender’s remaining games. On the other hand, the committee “watches teams play,” which is really not a quantifiable statistic, but something that we can at least try to get a bearing on. Still, it’s hard to find an offensive or defensive metric that accurately represents all teams and styles of play.

Some metrics will over-value “air raid” type offenses while some will prefer more consistent, but less explosive, gameplans. The rank in offensive and defensive yards per play gives a basic metric of how efficient and/or consistent a team is on both sides of the ball.

For the purposes of determining quality wins, things like Top 10 and Top 25 are arbitrary numbers that do more harm than good. There is no reason the gap between No. 25 and No. 26 is considered significantly larger than the gap between 24 and 25. Therefore, to counteract this, I am being very lenient as to who is considered Top 10 or Top 25. Any team in the Top 25 of one of the major polls (AP or Coaches’), or in a significant number of the accepted computer rankings, will be considered in the Top 25 for resume purposes. This leads to the awkwardness of having more than 25 “Top 25″ teams, but it presents a more accurate picture of the overall resume.

I am also changing a category, starting this week. Both Jeff Long and Kirby Hocutt constantly mention “wins over teams with winning records” as an important metric, so I’m going to show that to you. It is a less detailed way to view a win than looking at where each win is ranked, but the committee seems to care about it so we have to also. I will not count a win over an FCS team as a +.500 win, regardless of record.

The SOS range is taken from numerous computer rankings. Ranges can be quite large, but they do give a decent picture of the possibilities of how strong the schedule actually is.

Bubble Watch

I have several sections, ranging from the teams that control their own destiny to those that are full-fledged #TeamChaos members. The bubble is pretty straightforward for now–unless Alabama loses. Will a one-loss Crimson Tide get in over a two-loss conference champion? Will Alabama be ahead of Notre Dame? Looking at the resumes, it’s really hard to judge. The same question holds true, though to a lesser extent, to Miami. Then again, compare the resumes of Alabama and Miami. Why should a one-loss Alabama team be more likely to get in than a one-loss Hurricanes team?

Controls their own destiny

Team vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Range +.500 Wins Off YPP

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Alabama 0-0 2-0 1-0 7-0 0-0 35-50 5 6.7 (9) 3.9 (1)

On the metrics, Alabama looks dominant. On the “who have you beaten” question, it’s a bit iffy. Two of those +.500 wins are in the Mountain West. Four of the teams in that 41-80 range (Colorado State, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, and Tennessee) are in serious danger of slipping into cupcake range. Those SOS numbers will drop precipitously when Alabama plays Mercer this week. It’s a solid resume, but it really only seems worthy of inclusion if Alabama is undefeated, at least for now.

Team vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Range +.500 Wins Off YPP

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Georgia 1-1 1-0 1-0 4-0 2-0 20-40 4 6.3 (23) 4.4 (10)

The loss to Auburn hurt this resume in a lot of ways. The metrics dropped, and the Bulldogs no longer pass the eye test like they used to. Also, this is a great example of why wins over +.500 teams is a bad metric. Appalachian State is a cupcake by any true measure, but the committee counts it as a quality win. Still, the overall resume is solid, and Georgia controls its own destiny. Can the Bulldogs survive a second loss (to Kentucky or rival Georgia Tech) and still get in? That will be tough, but it’s interesting to wonder about.

Team vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Range +.500 Wins Off YPP

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Auburn 1-1 1-1 1-0 3-0 2-0 20-40 3 6.2 (25) 4.3 (6)

Another example why +.500 wins is a bad metric. Auburn has better wins than Alabama, but you wouldn’t know it by looking at that stat. The committee got the ranking of Auburn right looking at the resume, but by their own criteria it really doesn’t make sense. Still, Auburn is two wins away from the Playoff. Add two more Top 10 wins to this resume, and it’s golden.

Team vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Range +.500 Wins Off YPP

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Clemson 1-0 1-0 4-0 2-1 1-0 2-25 6 5.7 (49) 4.2 (5)

These Tigers have the most wins over teams with winning records, plus another over a good Wake Forest team. The defense is amazing, as is the SOS. Six wins over Top 40 teams is incredible, and just goes to show how under-the-radar the ACC Atlantic has been all year. It might not have the top-heaviness of the Big Ten East, but top-to-bottom it’s the best division in the country. Clemson will pick up two more good wins if it wins out, so this team is a Playoff lock at 12-1.

Team vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Range +.500 Wins Off YPP

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Miami 1-0 0-0 3-0 3-0 2-0 20-55 4 6.3 (22) 4.4 (8)

How good was Miami this past week? The Hurricanes played Notre Dame, and their defensive numbers got better. This resume is lacking in terms of top-end wins, and the losses by Toledo and Virginia Tech this past week didn’t help. Still undefeated will get it into the Playoff. One loss before the ACC Championship Game and Miami should still be a lock. Here’s my question, though: This resume isn’t great, but it’s better than Alabama’s. Why are the Tide being considered a Playoff potential if they lose to Georgia in their CCG, but Miami isn’t if it loses to Clemson? I don’t know either.

Team vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Range +.500 Wins Off YPP

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Wisconsin 0-0 2-0 0-0 5-0 3-0 45-65 3 6.2 (26) 3.9 (2)

Iowa is still a ranked team by the computers, and for good reason. Every Iowa loss is to a ranked team, and the Hawkeyes have good wins over Iowa State and Iowa State. When I look at this resume, this looks pretty similar to Alabama’s. Don’t listen to people who tell you that a 13-0 Wisconsin can be left out. Add in wins over Michigan and Ohio State to this resume, and it will be better than any conceivable one-loss resume. Wisconsin controls its own destiny.

Should be in if they win out

Team vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Range +.500 Wins Off YPP

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Oklahoma 1-0 2-0 0-1 3-0 3-0 10-60 3 8.3 (1) 5.8 (84)

Oklahoma does not belong in the same category as Ohio State. The Sooners are near a lock if they win out. I’m just putting them here in case we end up with 12-1 Georgia, 12-1 Alabama, 13-0 Wisconsin, and 12-0 Miami (or 12-1 Clemson). Even then, the Sooners will almost definitely be in. Give it another week and I’ll probably move them to controls their own destiny. Regardless, this resume is more than solid, aside from that ugly number on defense.

Team vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Range +.500 Wins Off YPP

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Ohio State 1-1 1-1 0-0 4-0 2-0 10-25 3 7.1 (5) 4.4 (9)

The Big Ten’s top-heaviness means that the Buckeyes only have two conference wins over +.500 teams, but Ohio State still has a top strength of schedule in the country. If the Buckeyes win out, they’ll add two more good wins to this resume, and the SOS numbers will get even better. Ohio State doesn’t really need help to get in–it just needs to not be hurt. As long as 11-1/12-1 Alabama or 11-1 Miami aren’t sitting there not as conference champions, the Buckeyes should be okay. Also, the Buckeyes are one of two teams in the country to be in the top ten of both offensive and defensive yards per play. It’s them–and Alabama.

Waiting in the wings

There are a lot of teams which control their own destiny, there’s Oklahoma (who basically controls their own destiny, but not necessarily), and then there are a bunch of teams behind them, waiting for some of those teams at the top to lose.

Team vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Range +.500 Wins Off YPP

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Notre Dame 0-2 3-0 2-0 1-0 2-0 2-6 4 6.3 (20) 5.0 (27)

I don’t know why everyone assumes that Notre Dame is out with two losses. By the end of the year, the Irish will have a unanimous toughest schedule in the country. They could easily have seven Top 40 wins, which would be best in the country. The metrics are solid on both sides of the ball. Why should not having a thirteenth game hold the Irish to a higher standard, when their 12 games are harder than anyone else’s 13 anyway?

Team vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Range +.500 Wins Off YPP

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TCU 0-1 2-0 0-1 4-0 2-0 30-60 3 5.8 (39) 4.9 (25)

The Horned Frogs have two solid wins, and can add a third in the Big 12 Championship Game, if they get there. They aren’t superlative on either side of the ball, but they are solid both ways. That SMU win isn’t looking nearly as good as it did a month ago, though, and Arkansas is barely out of cupcake range. The schedule numbers will go down from here on out. TCU is still alive, but needs a lot of help from teams in front of them.

Waiting to be eliminated

Team vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Range +.500 Wins Off YPP

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Michigan 0-1 0-1 0-0 5-0 3-0 30-55 0 5.4 (71) 4.0 (4)

This resume is awful, but it could get much better in the coming weeks. Either way, though, it won’t matter. Michigan needs either both Penn State and Michigan State to suffer a major upset to win the division. I’m just going to wait to make this official, but the Wolverines are done. This also shows why judging the value of a win solely by the record of the team is bad. Michigan’s SOS numbers are better than several teams above it on this page (and will get much better when closing with Wisconsin and Ohio State), but the committee views them as having beaten nobody.

Team vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Range +.500 Wins Off YPP

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Oklahoma State 0-1 1-1 1-0 2-0 4-0 15-60 2 7.4 (3) 5.4 (51)

It would take a miracle for Oklahoma State to make it into the Big 12 Championship Game. Even if the Cowboys do make it, though, this resume is weak. Sagarin and Massey somehow love the Big 12’s SOS, but the numbers are bad in just about every other metric. It will all be moot, though, unless TCU manages to lose to Texas Tech this weekend (or Baylor the next).

Team vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Range +.500 Wins Off YPP

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UCF 0-0 1-0 1-0 3-0 4-0 70-100 4 7.8 (2) 5.1 (38)

The SOS number keeps dropping, but you wouldn’t know it based off wins over +.500 teams. The metrics are good, and this resume isn’t bad at all. It won’t make the Playoff without some extreme chaos (though winning out would add two more strong wins), but 15 is too low for this team right now. It deserves to be higher.

Team vs 1-10 vs 11-25 vs 26-40 vs 41-80 vs 81+ SOS Range +.500 Wins Off YPP

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Washington 0-0 0-1 0-0 5-1 3-0 60-80 1 6.0 (31) 3.9 (3)

Honestly, it was a joke that Washington was ahead of UCF last week. It’s sad that it took another Huskies loss for the committee to fix that. I could eliminate this resume now, but I decided to wait a week until Stanford (probably) beats Cal and eliminates Washington from the Pac 12 race.

About Yesh Ginsburg

Yesh has been a fan and student of college football since before he can remember. He spent years mastering the intricacies of the BCS and now keeps an eye on the national picture as teams jockey for College Football Playoff positioning.