In the biggest trade of the last five years, the Los Angeles Rams shipped six draft picks (all of them in the top-100 in 2016 or 2017) to the Tennessee Titans in exchange for the first overall pick and two Day 3 draft choices in 2016.
The Rams have their eye on one of the top quarterbacks, while new Titans general manager Jon Robinson will look to stockpile his roster with “his guys” now, as they now have seven of the top-100 picks in the 2016 class.
Los Angeles Rams: 1st overall pick and 2016 4th and 6th rounder
PROS: The easiest way to win in the NFL is to have a top-flight quarterback, and the easiest way to find a top-flight quarterback is to pick high in the draft. The Rams obviously feel that one of Jared Goff or Carson Wentz can be that franchise-changing quarterback they’ve lacked for some time, and if Wentz ends up being that player, their offense is close to being a complete, playoff-bound unit.
Just last year, the Titans turned down multiple first round and second round picks and high-impact starters from the Eagles to take Mariota instead. While I don’t agree that Wentz is near the prospect Mariota was, if the Rams feel he is, they may have gotten him at market value compared to other recent quarterback-trade up offers.
CONS: While the Rams certainly needed a quarterback to build around (Case Keenum and Nick Foles weren’t going to cut it), it’s difficult to imagine that Wentz can not only be that guy, but be valued at all the picks it took to get him. Wentz comes from a run-based offense that didn’t ask him to make too many mid-field or anticipatory throws. Couple that with question marks about his progression quickness and likely slow development time table, and it may not be smooth sailing to start his career.
The other aspect is that Memphis’s Paxton Lynch, a quarterback I’ve been told is viewed somewhat highly on the Rams board, will likely be there at pick #15. If that’s the case, my view aside (I believe Lynch is the draft’s best quarterback), they wasted ample valuable draft picks in favor of a slightly better quarterback.
My Take: If the Redskins had to do the Robert Griffin trade again, they probably wouldn’t. But how could they have known that an ACL injury would occur early in his season and debilitated him to the point of being cut after his rookie deal? If he had maintained that success his rookie year showed, the trade would have been a steal for the Redskins, en route to repeated playoff-bound seasons.
But moving up for Griffin not only was a huge gamble on his upside, but stifled the Redskins rebuilding project around him. Like the Rams will do now, they’ll need to rely on previous draft picks, free agent signings and Day 3 picks to build Wentz a support cast that can hopefully get them out of the 8-8 purgatory. Call me pessimistic, but Wentz isn’t worth that. He’s not Andrew Luck, he’s likely Joe Flacco and trading that much for a potentially better version of Joe Flacco isn’t worth wasting two whole drafts on.
Tennessee Titans: 2016 1st (15), two 2nds (43, 45) and 3rd (76) plus 2017 1st and 3rd
PROS: Tennessee didn’t “need” the first-overall pick. Despite earning the first pick by being the worst team in the NFL record-wise, they are one of the more promising teams in the NFL. They have a franchise quarterback in Marcus Mariota, they have a capable left tackle in Taylor Lewan, they have recent acquisitions like Demarco Murray, Wesley Woodyard and Brian Orakpo, and they have scattered talent at receiver, tight end and defensive front-seven.
Couple that with the fact I’ve been told they value at least three offensive tackles similarly to perceived top pick Laremy Tunsil (had they stayed put), and they might be losing just a few grading scale points by moving down to 15 and recouping six top-100 picks over the next two drafts.
The Titans will have seven of the top 97 draft picks in the 2016 NFL draft. And if they play the board right, they could fill their defensive end, nose tackle, right tackle, cornerback and safety needs all with starter-level talents.
CONS: While Tennessee didn’t “need” the top overall pick, trading down from 1 to 15 all but eliminates them from getting one of the 2016 draft’s premier talents. The Titans don’t “need” a franchise-altering talent atop the draft, but adding even quality role players doesn’t make up for having premier talents. Elite players like Tunsil, Jalen Ramsey, DeForest Buckner, Joey Bosa or Myles Jack can not only dominate a game themselves, but put teammates into more comfortable roles to thrive on their own.
Tennessee may have a chance to add three or four starters from this trade, but they may never recoup the benefit that a premier talent can have on an offense or defense. Luckily they have some quality pieces in place, but despite the NFL being a team-based league, elite talents can alter the course of a building unit and make the path towards the playoff much easier than simply having depth and quality starters.
My Take: Tennessee clearly won the trade on paper and in theory; it’s hard to argue that any GM with a quarterback situation resolved like the Titans would have passed on that offer. But that doesn’t mean the Titans can sit back and enjoy their riches. Now there’s pressure to make the most of these picks. Similar to the Rams in the Robert Griffin trade, finding just a handful of starters and one impact player (Robert Quinn) wasn’t enough to get them over the hump. The Titans shouldn’t have trouble adding a few starters, but this trade is the start of the Titans make or break run with Mariota at the helm, and new GM Jon Robinson’s playoff clock has started ticking.
