A Las Vegas favorite hasn’t won a Super Bowl since 2010, when the Green Bay Packers beat the Pittsburgh Steelers in Super Bowl XLV. Since then, the New England Patriots, San Francisco 49ers, Denver Broncos and Carolina Panthers have all lost despite being favored to win the Lombardi Trophy.
That streak will be extended on Sunday, with the Atlanta Falcons overcoming a three-point spread to “upset” the Patriots. Here’s why, in eight digestible points…
At stake? A place in #SB51
Watch @juliojones_11 and the @AtlantaFalcons take on the @packers on BBC2 NOW 📺#BBCNFL #NFLPlayoffs pic.twitter.com/bMusZE3C2D
— NFL UK (@NFLUK) January 24, 2017
It won’t matter that the Patriots can shut down Julio Jones. In case you haven’t heard, New England is very good at shutting down its opponent’s top weapon. But in the six games this season in which Jones either didn’t play (twice) or was held to fewer than 40 yards (four times), the Falcons went 6-0 while averaging 37.0 points per game.
The big 53-yard play by Devonta Freeman pic.twitter.com/Y2B4f1g8F5
— Dov Kleiman (@NFL_DovKleiman) January 14, 2017
Atlanta has the best running back duo in the game.
Not only will Mohamed Sanu and Taylor Gabriel have a chance to step up if Jones is taken away, but don’t forget that running backs Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman caught a combined 85 passes for 883 yards during the regular season. Both went over 400 yards receiving, which only six other backs did.
Football Outsiders ranked the Patriots 20th in terms of DVOA when covering running backs, so that tough defense might be a little vulnerable against an offense that loves to throw to backs.
And, of course, the hottest quarterback… like, ever.
Matt Ryan just became the first quarterback in modern NFL history to post a 120-plus passer rating in six consecutive games. During that stretch, he has completed 72.8 percent of his passes for a 9.5 yards-per-attempt average, 18 touchdowns, zero interceptions and a passer rating of 133.3. The Falcons are 6-0 in that span, with the offense averaging a ridiculous 39 points per game.
31 quarterbacks attempted at least 25 deep passes this season. The only one not to throw an interception on a deep ball? Matt Ryan.
— Brad Gagnon (@Brad_Gagnon) January 24, 2017
And it goes beyond that six-game sample.
It was a season for the ages for Ryan, who led the NFL with a touchdown rate of 7.1, a yards-per-attempt average of 9.3, a passer rating of 117.1 and a QBR of 83.3. That yards-per-attempt average was the highest in the NFL this century, and that rating was the fifth-highest in league history. He was quite simply better than Tom Brady.
The Falcons aren’t just hotter, but they’re also healthier.
They listed zero players on their final injury report before the NFC title game. Jones and center Alex Mack are banged up now, but they’re both expected to be fine for Sunday. Meanwhile, the Pats are already without superstar tight end Rob Gronkowski and listed eight players as questionable on last week’s injury report. They’re older and more worn out.
Atlanta has a strong enough pass rush to naturally pressure Tom Brady.
That is, without blitzing — something the Falcons don’t do a lot anyway. They’ve got the 2016 NFL sack leader in Vic Beasley, as well as quality veteran rushers Brooks Reed and Dwight Freeney. The Giants proved in 2007 and 2011 — as did the Broncos last year — that the key to beating Brady and the Pats in the playoffs is to apply constant natural pressure.
The Falcons pressured Russell Wilson and Aaron Rodgers on more than 40 percent of their dropbacks in their first two playoff games, and Beasley wasn’t even that good. If he can step it up, it’ll be very hard for that banged-up New England offense to keep up in Houston.
The Falcons are unlikely to make a killer mistake.
Not only has Ryan gone two months without throwing an interception, but the team as a whole can become just the second in NFL history to commit fewer than 12 turnovers in a full season (including playoffs). Brady, meanwhile, had a pair of interceptions in the divisional playoffs, and the Pats have actually committed multiple turnovers four times in their last 12 games.
#Patriots/#Falcons both committed an NFL-low 11 turnovers during the reg. season, but…
Multi-turnover games this year:
Pats: 5
Falcons: 1— Brad Gagnon (@Brad_Gagnon) February 1, 2017
New England isn’t a particularly good Super Bowl team.
Seriously, the Pats have never kicked ass in a Super Bowl. None of their four wins came by more than four points, and you could argue that they were lucky to hold on in all four cases (especially against Philadelphia and Seattle). Both losses to the Giants were duds, and they’re 0-4 against the spread when favored in the Super Bowl. New England is tough to play at Gillette Stadium in January, but the Pats have never been dominant at neutral sites in February.
So while it would be fitting for Brady, Bill Belichick and Bob Kraft to represent the first championship team to meet President Donald Trump at the White House, it’s not gonna happen. The Falcons are going to win Super Bowl LI.
