The New Orleans Saints report to training camp Wednesday at The Greenbrier in White Sulphur Springs, West Virginia. They make the trip up north with a cloud of uncertainty surrounding the contract status of the most important player to ever put on a Saints uniform, Drew Brees.
Brees and the Saints are at an impasse over agreeing to a new deal. For the Who Dat Nation, this is nothing new. When Brees became the highest-paid player in 2012, the contract was signed late in the summer when both parties were reaching a deadline to get a deal done.
This negotiation was supposed to be a bit easier to figure out. Brees wants to finish his career in New Orleans. The Saints want Brees to finish his career in New Orleans. Saints fans DEFINITELY want Brees to finish his career in New Orleans.
Nonetheless, Brees said last week that he hadn’t held contract talks with the Saints for three months and it’s looking increasingly likely that he will play out the final year of his contract and its massive $30 million price tag.
So what’s the holdup?
It’s a question that has been increasingly gnawing at Saints fans throughout the offseason. The franchise has been in salary cap purgatory for the last few seasons and it’s clearly affected a team that has struggled to build a competent defense around Brees and his giant contract. The Saints have also let a number of veterans go this offseason including franchise stalwarts like Jahri Evans and Marques Colston.
A contract extension would not only allow the Saints some salary cap relief in the here and now, it would also secure Brees’ future in New Orleans and seemingly make everyone involved happy. No Saints fan wants to see Brees play for the New York Jets in 2017. Although Brees isn’t technically a one-club player, perhaps no athlete has meant as much to a fanbase in recent times as he has in the Big Easy.
Not only does an extension make sense from an off-field and legacy perspective, it’s also a prudent decision for the Saints on the field.
Last season at the age of 36, Brees had one of his best seasons with the Saints. That might make you scratch your head a little bit because they were a non-factor in the playoff hunt at 7-9. But Brees led the NFL with 4,870 passing yards despite playing just 15 games and missing a start. It was the sixth time in 10 seasons in New Orleans that Brees has led the NFL in that statistic.
However, playing with an extremely young receiving core and an offensive line in transition, Brees had some of his finest performances in a Saints uniform. His QB Rating of 101.0 was up four points from the year before, his 11 INTs tied a career-low in New Orleans, and his 68.3 completion percentage was above a career average that just so happens to be the best in NFL history.
For all of the change and transition happening around him, Brees is as strong as ever. He’s said in the past that he could play into his 40s, but it’s not inconceivable to see him play another three to four years at a high level.
Add it all up and an extension makes too much sense… yet here we are.
Although there might not be an official deadline for the Saints and Brees to play “Let’s Make a Deal” this summer, here’s why it’s bad for all parties involved for the Saints and Brees to play out the 2016 season on an expiring contract…
Drew Brees goes DEEP.
Brandin Cooks is FAST.71 yards later… 🏃💨#Touchdown. #JAXvsNO https://t.co/jkzvly0JUX
— NFL (@NFL) December 27, 2015
A) If Brees has a great season, the Saints will have no other choice but to pay up
If Drew Brees suffers an enormous dropoff in 2016, it will be a massive surprise. In fact, his numbers should only go up in 2016. That’s because his young receiving corps led by Brandin Cooks and Willie Snead (2,122 yards between them) should only get better. Additionally, Coby Fleener was added as a new target at the tight end position and Michael Thomas was drafted as the heir apparent to Marques Colston.
On the offensive line, the loss of Jahri Evans will hurt, but Terron Armstead is evolving into an All-Pro left tackle. If 2014 first-round pick Andrus Peat can cement a starting position and fulfill some of his potential, Brees’ protection should improve as well.
So if Brees plays great, the Saints may have no other choice but to increase their offer on a long-term contract or place the franchise tag on him.
The cost of that franchise tag? $43 million. That number alone should be enough to get the Saints front office back to the table.
B) If Brees does suffer a drop-off, neither side has a Plan B
On the flip side, what if something weird happens with celestial alignments and Brees does see a sudden decline?
It’s not a promising scenario for everyone involved. If Brees does see a drop in form, then it’s hard to imagine many teams splashing the cash for a declining 38-year-old quarterback. Brees is making a huge bet on himself this season with no safety net of a long-term contract being agreed to thus far this offseason.
And if the Saints are willing to let Brees walk after the season (in either of these scenarios) the team really has no Plan B. Garrett Grayson was drafted in the third round of the 2014 NFL Draft out of Colorado State, but has shown few signs of being a long-term answer for the franchise. As it stands, Grayson is firmly entrenched behind Luke McCown at No. 3 on the depth chart. Outside of last year’s preseason, Saints fans have no idea what they even have with Grayson, so 2017 starter seems like a long shot.
Which leads to the last point…
The Saints need to create a plan for their QB of the future
New Orleans ended a lot of rumors at the top of the franchise when they signed head coach Sean Payton to a new contract extension last season. The commitment to Payton for the long-term makes the non-commitment at the quarterback position all the more confusing.
While Brees and Payton have been joined at the hip since they both came to New Orleans in 2006, there has been constant speculation over who Payton might tag as Brees’ future successor. Although there was intense buzz over Paxton Lynch being the guy, the Saints ultimately passed on the Memphis signal caller.
The Saints may ultimately be in a Catch-22 here, especially with Brees’ contract stalemate.
With No. 9 on the roster, the Saints can contend for the Super Bowl in any season. He’s that good and that important. As we saw in 2009 when the Saints won a championship, if the defense can even be league-average, then New Orleans can contend with the best. Even with one of the worst units of all-time on the field last season, the Saints still scraped out seven wins.
In other words, with Brees at the helm, the Saints aren’t likely to be in the top five of the draft, where the franchise quarterbacks are selected. It’s highly unlikely they’ll get the privilege of going straight from Peyton Manning to Andrew Luck like the Colts did several years ago.
Alternatively, Brees could play mentor while a highly touted prospect sits for two to three years to learn under his tuteledge. To do that though, the Saints need to pull the trigger on bringing that quarterback into the fold (if it’s not Grayson) and commit to Brees to keep him on the roster for that development period.
There is a third way: If Brees is somewhere in-between his brilliant best and staving off father time, both he and the team could take it year-by-year. That would only leave all parties hanging in the same limbo that they are now, which seems like a non-starter for either rebuilding or making a run at a championship.
At the moment though, there’s no concrete movement towards committing to Brees beyond this season… or to anyone else for that matter. Saints have been blessed to have 10 years of Drew Brees as their quarterback after years of a revolving door featuring the likes of Kerry Collins, Heath Shuler, Danny Wuerffel, Billy Joe Tolliver AND Billy Joe Hobert. The Saints should do everything they can to make sure that doesn’t happen again and do it now.
