The first step, for any team trying to move forward, is to first identify exactly where it stands.
But we’d all understand if the Seahawks need a little extra time just to get their feet back on the ground.
It’s been a rollercoaster of a season for Seattle, the kind that leaves their front office, coaches, players, and most certainly, their fans, asking “Wait, what did we just watch?” One year ago, the Seahawks were one play away from back to back championships, and Pete Carroll’s decision not to feed the Beast turned into one of the all-time “What Ifs” in sports history. It was natural to wonder if the heartbreak from such an agonizing defeat would linger, and when the team opened the 2015 season at 2-4, it appeared we had our answer.
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But just when they’d been written off, by some, as championship contenders, the Seahawks came storming back. Eight wins in their last ten games. A dominant victory over the Division Champion Cardinals to close out the season. A late season stretch, from quarterback Russell Wilson, that could be called, without hyperbole, one of the finest in the history of the NFL. The Seahawks looked primed to make a run at a third straight Super Bowl appearance, right up until the clock hit 0:00 in Sunday’s 31-24 loss to the Carolina Panthers.
“You look at this game, it’s kind of like a microcosm of the season,” posited Carroll to the media once that season had come to a close, “We struggled so much early in the year to get going. It took us a long time. And then when we finally did, we caught fire and we got rolling. Everybody in here feels like we just ran out of time.”
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“We get in these situations, we know that it’s a tough hole we put ourselves in,” added wide receiver Doug Baldwin, “but nothing is ever final until that clock has no more time on it. So we’re gonna fight until the last second.”
Alas, time waits for no man, and now that Cam Newton and company have tossed the 12th Man aside, it’s fair to wonder, just who were the Seattle Seahawks this season? Were they the club that struggled early against playoff caliber opponents, or the one that feasted, late, on a softer schedule? Were they a team that nobody wanted to play in January, or the one that could have been bounced in the Wild Card round, had Blair Walsh simply converted a chip-shot field goal? Were they the group that looked wholly overwhelmed and unprepared, falling into a 31-point hole, or the one that rallied back, that tightened up the defense, gave Wilson room to work, and almost staged one of the biggest comebacks in NFL Playoff history?
Will the real Seattle Seahawks please stand up?
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Thankfully, in 2016, we trade in advanced statistics, rather than incomplete anecdotes and conflicting narratives. So what do the numbers tell us? Mainly, that it’s far too soon to close book on the Seahawks’ dominance. This is, after all, a team that outscored opponents by nine points per game, a team whose defense still led the league in points allowed, a team whose quarterback just posted the finest season of his career. Football Outsiders’ Defensive-Adjusted Value Over Average, now recognized as one of the most comprehensive, context-aware metrics in football, had the Seahawks atop the league by season’s end, something that, in another “Welcome to 2016” moment, Seattle was aware of, and took pride in.
“We do know it,” said Carroll of the statistical honor before the playoffs began, “We’ve been aware of it. It’s an interesting stat because it’s so comprehensive, and it does take into account all three phases in great detail…You’ve seen our guys blossom as players, you’ve seen young players fit in, you’ve seen your quarterback just continue to get better throughout the process, which really encompasses all aspects of what we’re doing.”
So, take heart, Seattle fans, the sky is not falling. (Although yes, it probably is still raining.) The numbers attest to the fact that despite an earlier exit, the Seahawks remain among the best teams in football. And with a roster that still ranks as one of the league’s youngest, there’s no reason to think a quick bounce-back isn’t possible.
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“100%, because we’re still young,” explained Richard Sherman, when asked if the only team he’s ever known was still on the rise, “People get confused, like our quarterback is 38. I think he’s closer to 26, 27 than 38. Bobby Wagner is 25. We’ve got a young core. I think people have been astounded by what we’ve been able to do in our young career, but we’re far from done. Guys are just entering their prime. We’re going to be special for a long time.”
“Anytime you don’t win it, you don’t win it all, it’s a disappointment,” added Wilson, “I don’t think it’s a useless year, I think you can use it for positive growth for the next opportunity, the next experience… That’s our mentality. We’re going to come back stronger. We’re going to get better, we’re going to have a great offseason. We’re going to have a championship offseason.”
And while I don’t think they actually hand out trophies for best offseason, (if they did, Kevin Costner would have cleaned up last year), there is no doubt that Seattle has some major decisions ahead. Front and center is the future of Marshawn Lynch, who may have spoken, or rather, not spoken his last words as a member of the Seahawks organization. Lynch carries a salary cap hit of $11.5 million for next season, and given that his season was plagued by injuries, and that backup Thomas Rawls emerged as a more than capable replacement, the team seems likely to move on at some point in the months ahead.
“I’ll remember him being a Beast. Beast Mode. That’s trademarked now…If he’s strapping up his pads, he’s going to give you everything he’s got,” said Sherman, before making sure to indicate that he had no idea what the future held for his teammate. “If I could read Beast Mode’s mind I think people would pay me a lot of money to tell them what I got.”
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Of course, Lynch is just one of a number of questions the Seahawks must face now that the offseason is upon them. Last year’s prized acquisition, tight-end Jimmy Graham, looked nothing like the dynamic playmaker who had starred in New Orleans, and ended the season on injured reserve with a torn patellar tendon. Some key members of the team will hit free agency, including left tackle Russell Okung, linebacker Bruce Irvin, and wide receiver Jermaine Kearse, who was instrumental in the team’s furious 2nd half comeback attempt. And an organization that, for years, benefited from the fact that their franchise quarterback was one of the biggest bargains in the league, must now adjust to the fact that Russell Wilson is, as he deserves, among the NFL’s best paid signal callers. Suddenly, the salary cap figures to be a little more difficult to navigate.
Can the Seahawks overcome all of this, and play, once again, deep into January of 2017? Of course. Will they? Well, that’s a more difficult question. The thing about championship windows is, you only truly know that they’re closing, well after the fact. All signs suggest that John Schneider, and Carroll, have built one of the premiere organizations in football, and that they remain a viable contender. But then, as the team learned the hard way on Sunday, that only guarantees you so much.
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“Obviously it’s disappointing to lose. Hate to lose,” said Wilson, “But the great part of today was our resilience. You can’t find anybody else that will fight the way we fight… The character of men that we have in that locker room, can’t get any better. So how could you not look forward to the next opportunity.”
The Seahawks will indeed, be back again. And they’ll undoubtedly be hoping that the ride is just a bit smoother the next time around.
