The 2016 NHL unrestricted free agent class provided far more fireworks — and potential long-term damage, depending on your perspective — than 2015. Last summer, only two players — Mike Green and Andrej Sekera — signed contracts with cap hits greater than $5 million. This summer, counting only contracts that go into effect next season, seven players signed deals of that value, and that doesn’t include Keith Yandle and Alex Goligoski, who technically never made it to free agency before signing massive deals.
Could 2017 see this trend continue?
The salary cap jumped just $1.4 million from 2015-16 to 2016-17, causing problems that were unexpected in a league that brags regularly about record revenue. It led to a host of teams spending money for various reasons: Buffalo, Edmonton and Vancouver were also-rans taking advantage of space to theoretically improve their teams. Boston, Detroit and the New York Islanders plugged holes after players with large cap hits departed, while Montreal signed a KHL star in an effort to distract a province from the fact it traded the organization’s biggest star.
Considering the weak Canadian dollar, declining ratings and the extensive list of players scheduled to become UFAs next July 1, there could be even more of an opportunity for free-agent craziness. Teams that didn’t spend big bucks this summer — Toronto may go nuts in 2017 free agency — could go after some big names next year.
Here are the potential UFAs for 2017, their chances of getting to market and how much they can help a new team.
Definitely won’t help (in any way anymore)
1. Chris Pronger
2. Marc Savard
3. Pavel Datsyuk
It’s the end of an era. Teams that make it a priority to get to the cap floor will no longer have the option of keeping (unofficially) retired players with big cap hits and small salaries (or no salaries, in Datsyuk’s case) on the roster. Pronger and Savard suffered career-ending injuries, although nothing says Datsyuk can’t change his mind after one year away from the NHL.
Pronger and Savard will come off the books of the Coyotes and Devils, respectively, which is great for fans of those teams, as it looks like they could be ready to spend and compete with a real roster in 2017-18.
You better trade for their rights before July 1
4. Ben Bishop
5. Kevin Shattenkirk
There’s not a more attractive player at each position and it’s very possible both will be traded to new teams before this offseason concludes. And if they start next season with their new teams, it’s doubtful they’d be traded before the deadline, since both the Lightning and Blues will likely be contending for a Stanley Cup.
If either gets to market, they will be among the best UFAs we’ve seen in recent years.
Brent Burns😍🔥 pic.twitter.com/lvX9jF4wTV
— Alexandr Lebedinets (@Leby__98) June 24, 2016
They’re not going anywhere
6. Brent Burns
7. Brad Marchand
8. Jamie Benn
Doug Wilson and Peter DeBoer love Burns. The Sharks will have plenty of room to give him a massive contract. He’s not leaving.
It’s almost offensive that the Bruins haven’t locked up Marchand yet. He’s 28, just scored 37 goals and usually is right around 25 every year. Plus, he’s a menace on the ice, so why haven’t the Bruins given him $60 million yet?
The Stars will almost definitely give Benn all the money in Texas by the time you finish reading this sentence.
They’re old and may never play again
9. Jaromir Jagr
10. Jarome Iginla
This section is sad for me to type, as two players from my childhood may be playing their final seasons. Jagr is 44 and shown no signs of slowing, but he’s 44 and it can all end in a hurry. Iginla is 39 and coming off his worst offensive season since 1997-98. Depending on how things go, this could be the end. Let’s not think about this again until next July.
Your top-tier forward help
10. Joe Thornton
11. Patrick Marleau
12. T.J. Oshie
13. Patrick Sharp
14. Alexander Steen
15. Patrik Berglund
16. Justin Williams
17. Martin Hanzal
18. Drew Stafford
19. Ales Hemsky
20. Mathieu Perreault
21. Brian Boyle
22. Daniel Winnik
23. Nick Bonino
Some of these players could re-sign with their current teams, but it’s likely the big paydays on July 1, 2017 will come from this class. The Sharks made no secret about trying to trade Thornton and Marleau, so who knows where that relationship will be 12 months from now. The Capitals probably won’t keep Oshie and Williams, so one should get to free agency. The Blues should really retain both Steen and Berglund but that team is heading for a big shakeup after Ken Hitchcock’s final season.
As for Sharp, you have to think he’d take a little less to stay in a great situation in Dallas. No matter if his next deal is from Dallas or a new suitor, Sharp will have a… handsome contract.
Your top-tier defense help
24. Dmitry Kulikov
25. Mark Streit
26. Andrei Markov
27. Dennis Wideman
28. Michael Del Zotto
29. Trevor Daley
30. Brian Campbell
31. Brendan Smith
32. Cody Franson
Right around the time you got to Wideman’s name, you probably thought, “Oh, so that’s why Goligoski and Yandle got so much money this summer.” Del Zotto could get five years and $25 million next summer, depending on how he performs this season. Kulikov could be the crown jewel of free-agent defensemen if Shattenkirk and Burns don’t make it to July 1.
If all the free-agent contracts with signing bonuses this summer aren’t the patient zero for the next lockout, the contracts these players get next summer should also get consideration.
Your guys currently on show-me deals
33. Alexander Radulov
34. Thomas Vanek
These guys could find themselves with big contracts next summer after proving themselves to be prolific scorers or they could be back in Russia or off to the Dany Heatley Retirement Home For Once Great Scorers.
Your starting goaltenders that aren’t Ben Bishop
35. Brian Elliott
36. Steve Mason
37. Ondrej Pavelec
38. Ryan Miller
39. Jonathan Bernier
It’s doubtful Elliott is going anywhere if the Flames give him a long-term deal but even if he’s not in the mix, this is a pretty decent group of goaltenders compared to years’ past. Someone here is getting massively overpaid. Throw in the fact that Las Vegas will need a starting goaltender and we might actually have an interesting summer at this position for the first time in forever.
Your backup/stop-gap/time-share goaltenders
40. Michal Neuvirth
41. Thomas Greiss
42. Chad Johnson
43. Reto Berra
44. Alex Stalock
45. Anders Nilsson
Neuvirth and Greiss will decide their worth during the upcoming season, as will the health/play of the goaltenders with whom they cohabitate. Johnson has a Las Vegas feel to him as a backup that posts great numbers but never gets a chance to be a No. 1.
Dustin Brown scores his 2nd career NHL hat-trick on April 1, 2010 in a #LAKings 8-3 win over Vancouver. #GEICORewindhttps://t.co/ENtWfHmdvN
— x – LA Kings (@LAKings) March 31, 2016
Your cavalcade of guys who may get bought out
46. Dustin Brown
47. Dan Girardi
48. Kari Lehtonen
49. Dave Bolland
50. Joffrey Lupul
51. Scott Hartnell
With the expansion draft on the horizon, all of these players could be in Las Vegas next season. But if not, these players could be available to everyone. This section is more a warning for everyone than anything to get excited about.
Mike Fisher just won't stop scoring goals. #Preds #NSHvsSJShttps://t.co/WWHa78GtCf
— Nashville Predators (@PredsNHL) May 8, 2016
A collection of meh guys who could all get one-year deals
52. Mike Fisher
53. Brooks Laich
54. Brian Gionta
55. Antoine Vermette
56. Mike Ribeiro
57. Bryan Bickell
58. Milan Michalek
59. David Desharnais
60. Teddy Purcell
61. Ron Hainsey
62. Nick Schultz
63. Dwight King
64. Tom Gilbert
65. Alex Burrows
66. Viktor Stalberg
67. Nate Thompson
68. Ryan Garbutt
This isn’t a complete list but no one here should get more than one year next summer. But you will find at least three names on this list signing tiny deals to the joyous response of, “What a bargain!” These are players with whom you fill out your roster. If you’re giving anyone at this skill level or age more than one year, that’s your problem.
The nice way to end this
69. Ilya Kovalchuk
There is no shortage of moving pieces to bringing him back to North America, but it’s possible Kovalchuk abandons the KHL and is allowed to return to the NHL at age 33. The Devils may need to sign off or maybe all 30 teams need to give an OK, but to have a player as talented as Kovalchuk back in the NHL would be one thing and one thing only.
Nice.
