By and large, NHL general managers seem to undervalue third and fourth liners in July. So many good ones go unsigned well into free agency. To wit, Daniel Winnik, whom both numbers people and non-numbers people agree is a good player, wasn’t signed until July 28th. And he just fetched second and fourth round draft picks, going from Toronto to Pittsburgh. The Penguins could have had him for free in July, but they just paid dearly for him.
Similarly, the Nashville Predators could have signed Mike Santorelli in July. Instead, in the package that also brought them Cody Franson, the Predators gave up their first round pick.
And the Winnipeg Jets could have had a player of Jiri Tlusty’s caliber in July—plenty were available. Instead, they gave Carolina a third round pick in the 2016 draft, and a conditional sixth round pick in this year’s draft.
The recent Stanley Cup winners, Chicago and Los Angeles, have proven beyond all doubt the value of third and fourth lines. They won their Cups in part because of offensive depth. Conversely, the Penguins’ achilles heel the last several seasons has been their third and fourth lines. Whereas the Crosby and Malkin lines score at will, the inability to get any production at all from forwards seven-12 has been their doom. And yet, when good, cheap third and fourth liners are bountifully available in free agency, the teams that need them fall asleep at the wheel.
The Toronto Maple Leafs have won big today, but the groundwork for their trade deadline haul of draft picks came in July, when they signed Santorelli and Winnik. The Leafs knew the value of these players would rise from July to February, and in a salary-capped, ultra-competitive league, any increase in value has to be capitalized on. Anywhere you can find value, you have to strike. And the Leafs did it brilliantly, by signing good third and fourth liners to manageable contracts, and then moving them for assets when their value was highest. It’s a strategy few teams enact, but it pays major dividends for the ones smart enough to try it.
