What goes into this ranking? Shot attempts for percentage, offensive/defensive zone starts, goals for percentage and puck luck are the elements of this analytic power ranking. Last week’s NHL Analytics Power Rankings on Puck Drunk Love can be found here. Keep in mind that based on the 2013-14 NHL season, 13 out of 16 playoff teams ranked in the top 16 of these same analytics power rankings.
Largest change in power ranking from last week: The St. Louis Blues had a strong week moving up five spots in the rankings. The Montreal Canadiens and Anaheim Ducks were not so fortunate both falling four spots in the rankings.
Teams currently outside the playoffs in points but in the top 16 of the rankings: The Dallas Stars are currently ranked 12th but sit outside of a playoff spot currently sitting in the bottom 10 in the league.
Teams currently in the playoffs based on points but outside of the top 16 in the rankings: The Vancouver Canucks currently rank 19th and the San Jose Sharks rank 24th. Both these teams are in need of a spark to keep them in contention. It would not be surprising to see the Sharks fire Head Coach Todd McClellan at some point prior to the trade deadline.
Three teams with the most luck: Nashville Predators (2.8), Montreal Canadiens (2.3) and the New York Rangers (1.9). What do these teams all have in common? Great goaltending from Pekka Rinne, Carey Price and Henrik Lundqvist respectively. Perhaps the best three goalies in the world right now.
Three teams with the least luck: Carolina Hurricanes (-3.1), Edmonton Oilers (-2.4), Arizona Coyotes (-2.3) and Minnesota Wild (-2.3).
Biggest change in power ranking based on luck: Both the Colorado Avalanche and Ottawa Senators would drop two spots in the rankings without their good fortune. The San Jose Sharks and Arizona Coyotes would both move up two spots.
Colorado’s poor season is proving one thing, they need to better augment their core of young stars. Getting more mobile on the back end would certainly help improve their fortunes moving forward.
Biggest differences between power ranking and ranking in the standings: The Anaheim Ducks, Toronto Maple Leafs, Montreal Canadiens, San Jose Sharks and Calgary Flames all rank more than eight spots higher in the standings than they do in our analytic rankings
At the other end of the spectrum the Dallas Stars, Los Angeles Kings and Carolina Hurricanes all rank at least seven spots lower in the standings than they do in the analytic rankings.
I expect the Dallas Stars to make a valiant effort to attain a post season birth. They may come up short but teams like the Canucks and Sharks really need to be looking over their shoulders.
