NHL Analytics Power Rankings: 1/19

What goes into this ranking? Shot attempts for percentage, offensive/defensive zone starts, goals for percentage and puck luck are the elements of this analytic power ranking. Last week’s NHL Analytics Power Rankings on Puck Drunk Love can be found here. Keep in mind that based on the 2013-14 NHL season, 13 out of 16 playoff teams ranked in the top 16 of these same analytics power rankings.

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Largest change in power ranking from last week: Both the Anaheim Ducks and the San Jose Sharks had positive weeks moving up three spots. The Florida Panthers and Dallas Stars were less fortunate losing four and three spots respectively.

Teams currently outside the playoffs in points but in the top 16 of the rankings: Both the Florida Panthers and the Dallas Stars sit at 18th and 19th in terms of points, however they are holding their spot in the top 16 of our rankings at 14 and 15. Cause for concern would be their large drop over the past week of 3+ spots. This is a bad time for a trend like this to start.

Teams currently in the playoffs based on points but outside of the top 16 in the rankings: Both the San Jose Sharks and the Vancouver Canucks are currently sitting in playoff position but sit 21st and 18th overall in the analytic rankings.

Three teams with the most luck: Nashville Predators (2.9), Montreal Canadiens (2.0), New York Rangers (1.9). Both Nashville and Montreal have elite goaltenders and it shows in their save percentages at 94% and 93.1% respectively. Show me a great goalie and I will show you a team with great puck luck.

Three teams with the least luck:  Carolina Hurricanes (-3.1), Edmonton Oilers (-2.8), Arizona Coyotes (-2.5). All three teams are shooting under 7% and have a save percentage under 91%. You won’t win many games in the NHL with that combination.

Biggest change in power ranking based on luck if all teams had average puck luck: Both the Ottawa Senators and New York Rangers would move up two spots with average puck luck. While the Carolina Hurricanes would actually drop three spots with all teams at the league average in puck luck.

Biggest differences between power ranking and ranking in the standings: The Anaheim Ducks are 11 sports higher than their power ranking and the Los Angeles Kings are at the other end of the spectrum with the same 11 spots lower.

The biggest difference between the Kings and Ducks comes in terms of their defensive zone starts. The Ducks have been starting just over 31% of their shifts in the defensive zone, while the Kings have been better at just under 29%. There are also smaller differences in terms of shot attempts for percentage and goals for percentage.

About Mike Burse

Mike will make the numbers make sense in the NHL for Puck Drunk Love.

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