DAYTONA BEACH, FL – FEBRUARY 19: Dale Earnhardt Jr., driver of the #88 Nationwide Chevrolet, stands in the garage area during practice for the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series Daytona 500 at Daytona International Speedway on February 19, 2016 in Daytona Beach, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

For Dale Earnhardt Jr., racing at Daytona is a lot like a high stakes game of poker.

“I mean, you got to go win,” explained Junior after taking the checkered flag in the first of Thursday night’s Can-Am Duel races, “You can’t hold any cards when there’s a trophy out there.”

Kenny Rogers, eat your heart out.

“I’m not too worried about giving away too many secrets,” added Earnhardt Jr., “But the car is so good, it’s really hard.  When you got such a great car, it’s hard to defend on a pass with a car like that.”

Let that be the biggest lesson from Speedweeks thus far.  If the Daytona 500 is in fact a card game, then Dale Earnhardt Jr. is sitting on aces in the hole.

On Thursday, he led 43 of the 60 laps, completed the winning pass on Denny Hamlin in the race’s late stages, and generally seemed to be able to put his racecar wherever he wanted, no small thing in a pack of high performances vehicles, separated by mere inches at 200 miles per hour. NASCAR fans have come to understand that restrictor plate racing means a wide open field, a free for all, a chaotic affair from which anyone can emerge.  And yet, there is no denying that a clear favorite has emerged for Sunday’s race, and he just so happens to be the racetrack’s favorite son.

“Another win at Daytona for the Earnhardts. We keep adding to the legacy.”

But then, the Earnhardt name isn’t the only one that emerged from Thursday with a sterling reputation intact.  So too did “Amelia”.  That’s the name that Dale Jr. bestowed on Hendrick Motorsports chassis number 88-872.  It’s a car that won three races last season, before Earnhardt decided that a vehicle that strong, that daring, needed a moniker to match.  And while most teams spend the winter building brand new cars for the sport’s biggest race, Earnhardt, crew chief Greg Ives, and the #88 team decided to give their best Chevy a shot at the Great American race.  So far, it’s hard to argue with the results.

“I don’t want to get overly confident in what I’m doing,” explained Earnhardt, “But the car really does everything I ask it to do.  When you have a car that you know can do the things that this car can do, you’re willing to take those gambles and risks to pull out and pass and not worry about getting shuffled to the back because you feel like the car is really capable of doing what you’re going to ask it to do every time you make a move.”

That’s not to suggest, of course, that Junior won’t have challengers.  There was another Duel race, on Thursday night, once Dale cleared out of the media center, and that one was claimed by the sport’s reigning Sprint Cup Champion, Kyle Busch.  But it’s worth noting that once he completed the victory lane festivities, many of the questions revolved around whether he, and his teammates, had anything for the #88.

“The 88 had some speed definitely,” noted Busch, “I think there were some opportunities that Denny let the 88 have him, wasn’t able to put a big enough block on him or something like that to hold the lead.”

“I’ve seen those moves a lot because I watch him a lot,” said Hamlin, who couldn’t help but hide his admiration for Earnhardt’s restrictor plate mastery, “You always are watching guys that are really successful at this kind of racing. You watch them and you learn from. I kind of knew what was going on, but when he’s coming at such a fast pace from behind, you have to anticipate… We’ve still got some work to do I think to make our car a little bit better and give ourselves a shot on Sunday.”

The Joe Gibbs racing stable will be formidable on Sunday, and quite possibly unified in their mission of overtaking the #88.  So too will the winner of last year’s 500, Joey Logano, who made a late charge on Thursday night, but was simply unable to complete the winning pass.

“I am proud of what we are doing here,” said Logano. “We are showing that we are one of the best speedway teams right now and I am proud of that. We still have room to gain. It is hard to pass that 88 car. He is really, really good.”

“I think you know he is going to be tough to beat,” added Kevin Harvick. “He has been really fast on all of these race tracks for the last couple of years, more than that, but extremely fast for the last couple of years with this particular rules package.”

Have you sensed a theme developing?  A host of drivers, some of the very best in the sport, all proud of their own performance, while equally united in their admiration of what Dale Earnhardt Jr. seems poised to accomplish.  There’ll be no shortage of contenders on Sunday, from Martin Truex’s single car underdog operation, to Austin Dillon driving the #3 car that Earnhardt’s father made famous, to Brian Vickers, a part-time substitute for an injured Tony Stewart, approaching the race with absolutely nothing to lose.

And, interestingly enough, some of Junior’s stoutest competition will come from his own teammates.  Jimmie Johnson, despite being forced to a backup car, figures to be in the mix on the strength of the Hendrick operation.  Kasey Kahne is in desperate need of a strong start after a disappointing 2015 season.  And then there’s Chase Elliott, the rookie that everyone will be watching, after he managed to capture the Coors Light Pole Award, despite not yet being old enough to take a sip of the sponsor’s product.  But after coming home sixth in his Duel race, Elliott took the time to, you guessed it, sing the praises of Dale Earnhardt Jr.

“I felt like whichever lane Dale was in was moving forward,” gushed Elliott, “He was really fast.  He just does a good job working the air.  That is just something I struggle with.”

Call it experience.  Call it a natural knack for navigating the pack.  Call it the product of a once-in-a-career piece of equipment.  Whatever you want to call it, there’s no denying that Dale Earnhardt Jr. enters Sunday’s race at the absolute height of his powers.  And while two hundred laps around Daytona International Speedway will always be unpredictable, suffice it to say that nobody will be shocked “Amelia” ends up back in Victory Lane on Sunday.  And if it happens, Junior has already discussed some big plans with team owner Rick Hendrick.

“I told him, whatever happens to this thing from here on out, he needs to keep track of it,” he offered, “Might be one he wants to put in a museum one day because it’s done a lot of good things.”

So no, Dale Jr. is making no attempt, whatsoever, to slow-play his hand for Sunday’s race. But then, that’s probably understandable.  After more than thirty years of the Earnhardt family, father and son, absolutely dominating at Daytona; After 51 total wins at the track; After two generations of brilliant strategy, incredible instincts, and fantastic finishes, well…

Nobody could possibly think that he’s bluffing.

About Alexander Goot

Alexander Goot is a sports television producer, and a writer whose work has appeared at The Cauldron, Vice Sports, Fansided, Sports On Earth, and the Classical. He is a passionate fan of jambands, NASCAR racing, and New York sports, and believed in Kristaps Porzingis from the very beginning. He can be reached at alexander.goot@gmail.com if you'd like to discuss the Mets rotation, or the music of Phish.