Serena Williams finds herself in a familiar place in Melbourne.
The odds that she’ll be in an equally familiar place on Saturday night in Australia are extremely good.
Serena has reached the Australian Open semifinals seven times. The American No. 1 has won every single one of those semifinals. Thursday’s match against Agnieszka Radwanska did absolutely nothing to imply that Williams would do anything other than win this tournament. Understand this about Serena’s opponent: Agnieszka Radwanska is the No. 4 player in the world. She was competing in the semifinal of a major and has reached a major final (Wimbledon 2012). She is no slouch. She is a threat to win every tournament she plays in.
Serena made her look like a lower-tier player, winning 6-0, 6-4, taking the first seven games of the match before Radwanska won just one.
Serena: "When I'm playing at my best, it's difficult to beat me" #ausopen pic.twitter.com/jgjkbmbkfI
— #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen) January 28, 2016
Part of this is not fair, at least in terms of judging how well Serena is playing, as this semifinal matchup largely favored Serena’s style. Radwanska plays a brilliant finesse game that works against just about every other player in the world. Her mix of angles and slices befuddles most opponents. Against Serena, though, they are completely ineffective. Much like Michigan State against Alabama in the recent College Football Playoff semifinal, the matchup discrepancy made the final scoreline look a lot more one-sided than the talent disparity actually called for.
This brings us to an important, and incredibly underrated, part of Serena’s game. Because of her power and aggressive baseline play, people don’t realize how well Serena moves.
Her movement around the court means that she gets to balls with plenty of time to hit the shot she needs to. Her power means she can control the rally from just about anywhere on the court. The combination of these two traits means Serena can completely overpower anything Radwanska sends her way. It is also the reason why Serena’s head-to-head against the Polish player currently stands at 9-0.
The level of dominance Serena displayed in the opening games of the match was astounding. Radwanska could do absolutely nothing to stop her opponent. After a few shots, Serena’s control of the rally became apparent. There were 31 points played in the first set. Serena hit 18 winners in the set. That means that a whopping 58 percent of points in the set ended on winners by Serena. That is absurd. That is the definition of domination.
Serena lost only seven points in the first set. She lost three points on her own serve in the entire set, which is an impressive number, but the far more impressive number is that she only lost four points on Radwanska’s serve. That’s crazy. Serena won 75 percent of the points in which her opponent was serving. That just doesn’t happen on the professional tour. It certainly doesn’t happen in the semifinals of a Slam tournament.
It will be a 26th Grand Slam final appearance for @serenawilliams on Saturday… #AusOpen pic.twitter.com/pfOPLpBw9b
— #AusOpen (@AustralianOpen) January 28, 2016
The second set was a closer affair, but that was also entirely on Serena’s racket. Serena ran out to a quick 3-1 lead in the second set. Her level of play dropped a bit in the middle of the set, allowing Radwanska back in. Serena hit a few more errors and her groundstrokes weren’t as pure. This decline allowed Radwanska to stay in rallies and hit shots that caused Serena a bit of trouble. Importantly, Radwanska’s baseline groundstrokes went much deeper into the court than earlier in the match, which didn’t let Serena play as many point-controlling shots as she did in the first set.
The set was certainly tighter, but at the end Radwanska couldn’t quite do enough to make the match interesting. Radwanska played a poor game while serving at 4-4, including an unforced error to give Serena the decisive break for 5-4. Serena served out the match without any drama and booked her place in her seventh final in Melbourne.
Serena will meet Angelique Kerber in the final at 7:30 p.m. local time Saturday evening in Melbourne, which means it will be at 3:30 a.m. ET in the United States. Serena has lots of American fans. If they’re dedicated enough to watch her try to win her 22nd Slam final, they’ll have to get up very early (or stay up very late) to see it.
Given the magnitude of the moment, you can bet that they will. Another great moment is close at hand for the tennis player of our generation.
