One of the hallmarks of effective problem-solving is to think ahead, to see the problem either before it emerges or as it emerges. If a problem solver is lucky, he or she will be able to head off problems before they take root. For most of us, life is too busy and complicated to prevent problems before we see them. Usually, we have to see a problem before we can prevent it from recurring.
Such is the case with the American Athletic Conference, also known as The American, also known as the AAC, purveyor of “#AACTION.”
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In the middle of October, the nation at large is focused on playoff baseball, NFL football, and the main dramas of the college football regular season, such as the Michigan punt that went awry (henceforth known as “The Immaculate Implosion”). American sports fans (distinguished from “The American” sports fans) aren’t yet focused on the bowl season.
There’s too much competition over the next seven weeks. The large number of variables separating reality from possibility creates a context in which it’s hard to engage in bowl projections. More than that, it’s actually a waste of time to project bowl games this early in the season. As is the case with other projection-based college football activities, it’s best to wait until November to start the project in earnest. (The same thing can be said of top-25 polls and Heisman Trophy rankings.)
However, there’s a difference between waiting until the right time to do something and “getting a head start on solving a problem.” Sometimes, problems are solved through a process of patient waiting and then pouncing when the moment is right. On other occasions, potentially thorny situations can be prevented by acting as early as humanly possible.
It is indeed too early to project the bowls, but it’s not too early to discuss how to improve the bowls and their flaws… at least in relationship to one particular conference: The American.
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Look at the bowl schedule, and more precisely, look at the conference tie-ins, not so much the dates or time slots. The American’s bowl arrangements include the Sun Belt, the Mountain West or BYU, the Mid-American Conference, Conference USA twice, and the SEC. Getting the SEC and a Mountain West or BYU option represent reasonably good tie-ins for the AAC. However, two C-USA tie-ins and the lack of a second Power 5 tie-in certainly rate as disappointments for the conference.
It’s true that a year ago, the AAC just wasn’t very strong. Louisville left, UCF declined, and Memphis — as we can see now with the benefit of hindsight — was still growing under Justin Fuente, whose tenure in the state of Tennessee is probably not going to last beyond January of 2016. A year ago, The American didn’t stand out as a Group of Five conference, but this year, it certainly has.
We’re merely halfway through the season, with a lot of football left on the docket, and already, the Group of Five has only one non-AAC hopeful: Toledo, swimming along with an unbeaten mark in the MAC. The Rockets absolutely must remain unbeaten to be the Group of Five champion, and even then, they’ll need Temple and the Memphis-Houston winner to lose a game at some point in the season. A 13-0 Temple team with a win over Notre Dame would eclipse Toledo; so would a 13-0 Memphis team with a win over Ole Miss. Houston would be a closer call, since the Cougars don’t have as big a non-conference poker chip; however, the Cougars, at 13-0, would sport wins over Memphis, Navy and Temple. They’d probably still beat out Toledo in the Group of Five New Year’s Six race.
The American, after week seven, is 7-11 against Power 5 teams, a very small sample size but a respectable record. The other four Group of Five teams are 9-73 against the Power 5. The AAC might be a part of the Group of Five, but in many ways, this season is a split between the Group of Four and the Power 6. The AAC is part of the Power 6, calling to mind its Big East heritage. Louisville, playing the final bowl game in the history of the Big East, thrashed Florida in the 2013 Sugar Bowl. UCF, playing the first (and last) Bowl Championship Series game in the history of The American, clearly outplayed Baylor in the 2014 Fiesta Bowl. After a year of regrouping, the AAC once again seems ready to put a formidable team into a centerpiece New Year’s Day (or Eve, in the Peach Bowl) contest.
With this lineup of heavy hitters — Memphis in front, closely followed by Houston and Temple, with Navy also in the mix — shouldn’t the AAC have a bowl lineup worthy of its stature and the talents of the teams within the conference?
SEC and Mountain West or BYU tie-ins? Sure. One C-USA tie-in? Okay, for the sixth-place team. Yet, out of the six tie-ins the league has, only two would feature a step up in competition. That’s a .333 batting average, which is great if you’re the New York Mets, but not good if you’re league commissioner Mike Aresco, who knows he has more to do to put the AAC in a stronger position.
The Pac-12 struggles to put together truly national bowl packages, because its fans just don’t travel as well and don’t create as much clout for the league. Teaming up with the AAC, though, in bowls located in or near Texas? That could be a gateway for both conferences.
We won’t get to see these bowl matchups in 2015, but let’s imagine them: USC versus Navy. Temple versus California. Houston versus Oregon (!).
Those matchups would serve the AAC better than its current bowl lineup. The Pac-12 and Larry Scott would probably relish a Houston-Oregon matchup, given that it would enable the Ducks to enhance their recruiting efforts in the state of Texas.
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Could any of us have known that The American would flourish this much in the first half of the 2015 season? Maybe a few, but not most of us. Now that the AAC is showing signs of being a cut above the rest of the Group of Five, the league needs to get more value from “American exceptionalism.”
