This is the weekend we’ve all been waiting for, featuring four games that will have an impact on the College Football Playoff race. Here’s a list of thoughts, observations, and things to watch for in week 10.
- At the risk of sounding like a broken record, please ignore the College Football Playoff rankings. Until the final edition is released, the weekly unveiling of the standings is like an episode of Seinfeld, because it’s literally a show about nothing. Until all of games are in the books, these rankings are nothing more than conjecture and about as accurate as my first serve in tennis (which is pretty horrible).
- That last sentence is one of the most important ones to keep in mind throughout of the final weeks of the season. Sure, it’s easy to get upset that Team A is ranked too high and Team B is ranked too low. However, with a schedule as backloaded as this year’s is, things will sort themselves out on the gridiron. So, just enjoy the next few weeks, as the teams settle the issue on the field.
- I’ve had the LSU-Alabama game circled on my calendar since the moment the schedule came out. The battle between Leonard Fournette (193.4 ypg, 7.68 ypc) versus the Crimson Tide front seven (78.5 ypg, 2.6 ypc) might be the best matchup of the entire 2015-’16 campaign.
- The numbers seem to favor the Alabama defense, which has taken its play to another level against ranked opponents. In two games against top-25 foes, the Tide D has allowed just 2.16 yards per carry.
- Yet, Fournette hasn’t exactly disappointed against ranked teams, rushing for 339 yards and 5 TDs in contests against Mississippi State and Florida.
- Of course, it’s worth noting that Derrick Henry is the nation’s second best rusher against ranked opponents this year, averaging 181.5 yards per game — 12 more than Fournette.
- Don’t fall into the trap of thinking that LSU cannot win this game if it doesn’t get the ground game going. Brandon Harris has played well against top-25 opponents this year, completing 22 of 33 passes for 273 yards (8.3 per attempt) and 2 touchdowns. It’ll be interesting to see what he can do against a Tide secondary that’s allowed an average of 312.5 yards per game against ranked opponents this year.
- However, that assumes Harris will have time to throw. The Alabama pass rush has made life miserable for opposing quarterbacks, recording 16 of its 27 sacks (7th best in the nation) over the last four games.
- The Crimson Tide will need a big game from Jake Coker in order to win this contest. He doesn’t necessarily have to throw for 400 yards in order to get a “W,” but he must pose enough of a threat to slow down LSU’s front seven, which is sixth nationally against the run (93.71 ypg).
- Florida State-Clemson is a prime example of why the rankings are meaningless at this point of the season. After all, the ‘Noles could easily move into the top 4 if they were to win out, because they would own victories over both Clemson (No. 1) and Florida (No. 10).
- It doesn’t matter who starts at quarterback for Florida State this weekend. After all, Everett Golson has played in a number of big games throughout his career, including the BCS National Championship Game. While Sean Maguire doesn’t have as much experience, he did throw for 304 yards against the Tigers last year.
- By the same token, Deshaun Watson was also impressive in that contest, completing 19 of 28 passes for 266 yards.
- Despite the stellar numbers listed above, expect a defensive struggle in this contest. Both Clemson (5th and 5th) and Florida State (25th and 13th) rank in the top 25 nationally in both total defense and scoring defense.
- The key to a Tiger victory is to slow down the Seminole passing game. In the last three games against the Seminoles — all defeats — Clemson has allowed an average of 376 yards.
- Yet, this season, the Tiger D leads in the nation in completion percentage, allowing opponents to connect on just 46% of their passes.
- By comparison, Florida State has completed 67.3% of its passes this season, and 75.8% of its throws against teams with a winning record.
- For the Seminoles to win, they’ll have to a better job of moving the sticks. While its overall numbers look impressive, FSU is averaging just 275.3 yards per game on the road this year. That doesn’t bode well against a Clemson defense that leads the nation in third down conversion percentage, allowing opponents to convert just 21.2% of the time.
- My advice to TCU and Oklahoma State fans (and to Baylor fans, for that matter) is to ignore this week’s College Football Playoff rankings (are you noticing a pattern here?) and worry about the results on the field. While it’s perfectly natural to worry about being left out of the national championship because of the BCS debacle of 2011 or last season’s surprising snub, the fact of the matter is that each team controls its down destiny. If the winner of this contest wins all of its games, it will qualify for the College Football Playoff.
- This will be a classic Big 12 shootout, as both teams rank in the top 15 in scoring, total offense, and passing yards per game.
- With that type of firepower, the team that makes the fewest mistakes usually wins the game. That gives Oklahoma State — which is seventh nationally in turnovers gained with 19 — the advantage.
- However, it’s worth noting that TCU has won its last three contests in which it actually lost the turnover battle (its last loss with a negative turnover margin was to Baylor in the 2013 season finale).
- While he said it doesn’t matter and that the only thing he’s worried about is helping the Cowboys get to 9-0, I can’t help but wonder if Emmanuel Ogbah isn’t going to have a monster game this weekend after getting snubbed from the Lombardi Award list. Oklahoma State certainly wasn’t happy about this decision, posting a comparison of his numbers against the other defensive ends that were chosen.
- On the other hand, TCU’s offensive line has been one of the best in the nation when it comes to protecting the quarterback, allowing just six sacks in eight games this season.
- They’ll need to turn in another stellar effort against the ‘Pokes’ pass rush — which ranks 2nd nationally with 30 sacks — in order to get a “W.” If they can keep Trevone Boykin upright, the Frogs will be able to exploit an OSU secondary that’s given up 25 pass plays longer than 20 yards this season.
- It might also propel Josh Doctson into the Heisman Trophy discussion.
- Although it won’t get much publicity because of the other high profile games going on, be sure to watch Navy-Memphis on Saturday night. The quarterback duel between Keenan Reynolds and Paxton Lynch — who’s my Heisman Trophy pick — will be worth the price of admission.
- With J.T. Barrett out for the game, I’m interested to see how Cardale Jones performs against Minnesota on Saturday. Sure, it looks like a easy “W” on paper, but it’s worth mentioning that the Golden Gophers are 16th nationally in passing defense, allowing only 176.3 yards per game.
- Another intriguing matchup is Duke-North Carolina, which pits the nation’s ninth-best defense against the country’s 24th-best offense. This rivalry game will have a little more spice than usual, as the Blue Devils attempt to rebound from an officiating error that cost them the game against Miami.
- This week’s upset special is Utah over Washington. I have no idea why the No. 13-ranked team in the country is an underdog against a 4-4 team, but it is, so I’m picking Utah. However, expect a dog fight (no pun intended), with both run defenses ranking among the top units in the country.
Terry Johnson is the Associate Editor at the Student Section, a member of the Football Writers Association of America and the National Football Foundation. Follow him on Twitter, Facebook, and/or Google+.
