Throughout the offseason, writers Joe Dexter and Kevin Causey will join associate editors Bart Doan and Terry Johnson to discuss what’s going to happen on the gridiron this fall. Last week we started our 2016 college football roundtable series by discussing the best and worst coaching hires this off-season. On Wednesday we talked about the teams that will surprise in 2016. Now let’s discuss teams that we feel will disappoint their fan bases in 2016.
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Question: Which team will be the biggest disappointment of the fall?
Bart Doan: On Twitter @TheCoachBart
If you spin it to yourself right, appearing on a “disappointment” list is somewhat of a compliment: it means basically everyone other than a fringe few think you’re going to be pretty good. With that, don’t find me on Twitter, Baylor fans, because you’re my choice for this one.
The reason? Look into the trenches. The Bears will need to replace the bulk of their offensive and defensive lines, including four on the OL. That’s not ideal for a team that was bare bones by the end of the season in terms of healthy quarterbacks, which is completely vexing considering how much stat padding one can do by being in that position there.
The Bears do have arguably the best backfield in the country, but someone needs to block for it. The Bears are wealthy at all the skill positions, but it’s awfully tough to not take a slide when you have to break in an entirely new starting group on the defensive line and four on the offensive line.
If the game truly is won in the trenches, which I fully personally believe, there’s a lot of “nowhere to somewhere” Baylor has to go betwixt now and then.
Joe Dexter: On Twitter @BuckeyeRadio
Mark Dantonio has done some rather impressive things during the course of his tenure at Michigan State. His teams have lost a total of only five games over the last three seasons.
Execution late in ballgames was a mainstay in 2015. Seven of Michigan State’s 14 games were decided by seven points or fewer. In those games, Connor Cook led his team to a 5-1 record (he missed Ohio State). Heading into their one regular season loss to Nebraska, the Spartans had won seven straight in games decided by no more than one touchdown.
Lady Luck rewarded their timely execution with some fairy dust at the end of their heated rivalry game with Michigan.
In 2016, it will be harder for Dantonio to depend on that consistency without his four-year quarterback, two All-Americans on the offensive line, and a defensive end in Shalique Calhoun that not only got to the quarterback at a very high rate, but was the anchor of a stellar rush defense.
With the offensive changes — which include the graduation of top receiver Aaron Burbridge — it’s hard to imagine that a group which finished 55th or lower in nearly every offensive category will somehow improve.
When you win 36 games in three seasons, the expectations are going to be high. Especially if your coach has ingrained an ability to execute when the game is on the line.
It’s really hard to sustain that style of play, though. over a long period of time, especially when your program lacks the in-game experience at key positions to have success in the waning moments of a game.
Just ask Dantonio himself, who experienced this reality after the departures of Brian Hoyer and Kirk Cousins. In his second year, Hoyer led MSU to its first season of nine wins or more since 1999. The following year?
Kirk Cousins went 6-7 in his first year — with five of those losses coming by 8 points or fewer. After Cousins led Sparty to its first two 11-win seasons in school history, Andrew Maxwell struggled to execute in close games. Five of his teams’ six losses were by four points or fewer.
What Dantonio has done at Michigan State is nothing short of impressive. Yet history shows — especially with a tough schedule that includes the likes of Notre Dame, BYU, Michigan, Ohio State, and Penn State — that 2016 could be a down year in East Lansing.
Kevin Causey: On Twitter @CFBZ
The pre-season polls I have been looking at have Tennessee as a Top-10 team. Under Butch Jones, the Vols have gotten better and I expect them to continue to get better. But… they aren’t a Top-10 team.
They do have 17 returning starters and they did win their last six games of 2015. However, the teams they beat in that six-game run were… South Carolina, Kentucky, North Texas, Missouri, Vanderbilt and Northwestern. At the time those games were played, I can confidently say that five of those six wins came against borderline awful opponents.
Tennessee will be good in 2016 and the Vols will have another nice season. They might even finish 9-3 in the regular season, but if they do… that won’t sniff the top 10.
The biggest stretch for the Vols will be from September 24 to October 15. During that stretch they face Florida, at Georgia, at Texas A&M, and then they play Alabama. Tennessee hasn’t beaten Florida since 2004. The Vols haven’t beaten Alabama since 2006. Georgia will want revenge after a loss last year in which its star player went down and the Dawgs let the win go right through their outstretched arms. If they can somehow get through this stretch with minimal damage, they once again conclude their season with a virtual cakewalk.
I like Tennessee’s chances of having a good year. I don’t like the Vols’ chances of being a Top-10 team, and that’s how they seem to be predicted to finish this season. Due to that, they may be setting some of their fans up for a disappointing year.
Terry Johnson: On Twitter @SectionTPJ
Did I see that Kevin picked Tennessee? He must have read Joe’s analysis about Georgia having a breakout season in 2016.
All kidding aside (although Mr. Dexter is correct), TCU will be the most disappointing team in 2016.
This response will surprise more than a few people. After all, Gary Patterson is one of the finest defensive minds in college football. With seven starters returning — including Josh Carraway (1st team All-Big 12, 9 sacks, 11.5 TFL), Travin Howard (team-high 105 tackles), and Denzel Johnson (13.5 TFL, 8 passes broken up) – TCU’s D could be one of the best in the league this year.
Of course, it’s impossible to win games in the Big 12 without scoring a ton of points, which is why the Horned Frogs will struggle this season. With Trevone Boykin (3,574 yards passing, 31 TD), Aaron Green (1,273 yards), Josh Doctson (78 catches, 1,326 yards, 14 TDs), and Kolby Listenbee (597 yards, 19.9 per catch) heading to the next level, TCU doesn’t have enough weapons to win shootouts as it did last year. This lack of firepower will add up to a few more losses.
Does this mean that the Frogs will miss the postseason?
Of course not. However, TCU won’t win 10 games this year, which is a disappointment considering that it has posted double-digit wins 10 times during Patterson’s highly successful tenure at the school.
