If you have seen our Bubble Watch here at The Student Section, you will remember that we still count 13 teams with a chance at making the College Football Playoff. Some of these teams have worse chances than the others, while some have very clear paths to the Playoff.
With only two weeks left in the season, there are a limited number of possibilities that can occur in the games that will affect the Playoff race. There are too many to enumerate all of them. However, they are few enough that we can trace the best path to the Playoff for each of these teams. Some of these might get a little complicated, but we will try to lay them out as clearly as we can.
Sometimes teams with similar interests could have drastically difference paths to the Playoff. So here they are–the best way for all 13 remaining teams to get into the Playoff. When I refer to a resume, feel free to look at that team in the Bubble Watch to get a clearer look at what the resume actually looks like.
Before we begin, the pipe dream for every non-SEC team on this list is for Ole Miss to win the SEC. That would mean Alabama losing to Auburn this week and Ole Miss winning out. If that happens, the SEC is basically guaranteed to be left out. That makes things much easier for everyone else. Let’s assume that doesn’t happen, though.
ACC
Clemson: The committee loves Clemson, but it’s no longer so clear why. That resume has two good wins, but not much otherwise. I don’t know if Clemson can survive a loss and still get in the Playoff. Clemson is in if they win out. But if they want to get in after a loss, they need Notre Dame to beat Stanford this week. If the choice is a toss-up between Clemson and the Irish, head-to-head is an important stat to have in that back pocket.
North Carolina: It is hard to see a way for North Carolina to get in the Playoff, having only one win of any value at all right now (over 8-3 Pitt). A win to close the year over No. 1 Clemson is a must to start. So Clemson has to win this week. After that, they have to find a path that eliminates the champion of another conference and Notre Dame. So Stanford has to beat Notre Dame this week. Once that happens, there are a few choices. The Tar Heels need Stanford to lose after that in the Pac 12 Championship Game. If that doesn’t happen, their only other real path is if Florida loses to Florida State and then beats Alabama or if Iowa loses to Nebraska then wins the Big Ten Championship Game. North Carolina will get the bid over a three-loss (or four-loss) Pac 12 champion. Getting in over 11-2 Florida or 12-1 Iowa is a toss-up, but at least it’s a chance. North Carolina, more than anyone else, needs to see our scenario of Ole Miss winning the SEC coming true.
Big Ten
Michigan State: It’s feast or famine for the Spartans. If they win out, they are all but guaranteed to get in. If they lose a game, they are out. It’s that simple.
Iowa: The Hawkeyes are in if they win out. If they lose the Big Ten Championship Game, they are out. If Iowa loses to Nebraska but wins the Big Ten, they have a chance, but it will be tough. 11-1 Notre Dame will have a better resume than 12-1 Iowa, so the Hawkeyes would need Notre Dame to lose to Stanford. 11-2 Stanford might have a legitimate case over Iowa, so the Hawkeyes would then need Stanford to lose in the Pac 12 Championship Game to feel safe. Barring that, they can root against Oklahoma in Bedlam, but getting in over Oklahoma State or Baylor will be iffy.
Ohio State: The Buckeyes need Michigan State to lose to Penn State on Saturday. That is the start. If Ohio State can beat Michigan this week and then an undefeated Iowa next week, they have a chance. They will need Notre Dame to lose to Stanford and then for Stanford to lose next week to feel safe. If they don’t get that, though, Ohio State should feel safe in having a better resume than North Carolina if they Tar Heels win the ACC. The Buckeyes should also feel safe having a better resume than a two-loss Florida. They should also root for Oklahoma State in Bedlam, but it will be a tight choice between the Buckeyes and Cowboys in that case.
Michigan: Michigan is rooting for just about exactly the same thing as Ohio State. It starts with a Michigan State loss and continues with a Notre Dame loss and having one of the power conferences not having a good enough profile. Michigan, even with that second loss, has a better resume than the Buckeyes. They would need a third Stanford loss to feel safe, but 11-2 Michigan may very well have a better resume than 11-2 Stanford. So if it’s Michigan against 12-1 North Carolina or 11-2 Florida, the Wolverines should also feel pretty safe. If they’re up against 11-2 North Carolina, the Wolverines are a lock.
Here is the interesting thing about Michigan against Ohio State. The game plays at noon on Saturday, before any of the rest of these games, especially Michigan State vs Penn State, occur. No self-respecting fan of either team would want their hated rival to win the Big Ten. So the loser of this game, if they can stomach more college football for the rest of the day, will be rooting for Michigan State to win.
Big 12
Oklahoma: The Sooners jumped to No. 3 in this week’s Playoff rankings, which should make them feel pretty safe. Of course, TCU was probably saying the same thing a year ago. The Sooners are safer than TCU was last year, but a Notre Dame loss would pretty much lock things up for the Sooners. Barring that, the Sooners should root for Baylor to beat TCU, but not by too much. They want Baylor to be ranked high and be a valuable win, but they also want TCU to stay a third ranked win. They also want to root for Notre Dame’s wins to lose value this week. That means rooting for Miami over Pitt, Houston over Navy, UConn over Temple, and UCLA over USC. Also, Oklahoma should feel safe having a better resume than 12-1 Iowa, so they want to pull for Nebraska to upset the Hawkeyes. Oklahoma has every reason to feel safe if they win Bedlam. But if the above happens, they shouldn’t have any worries whatsoever.
Oklahoma State: The Cowboys don’t have the same resume as the Sooners. They are lacking that key win over Baylor. So they need TCU to beat the Bears, which will give them a chance to win the Big 12 with a Bedlam win and will also give them a second valuable win. On top of that, they need a Notre Dame loss because 11-1 Notre Dame will have a better resume than 11-1 Oklahoma State. They won’t feel safe being up against 11-2 Stanford, so they need Stanford to lose next week. If Notre Dame needs Stanford, Oklahoma State will need another power conference to have an uninviting champion. That means having Iowa or Florida lose this week and win next week. The best case would be North Carolina losing this week then beating Clemson next week, but if North Carolina wins out the Cowboys have to feel like they have a better resume than the Tar Heels anyway.
Baylor: The Bears need Oklahoma to lose Bedlam so that they can win the Big 12. They also need Notre Dame to lose a game. Their overall resume, starting with that awful nonconference schedule, will cost them any benefit of the doubt in the committee’s eyes. The only one-loss power conference team that they should feel any modicum of safety over is North Carolina. Even 11-1 Baylor vs 12-1 Iowa is a toss-up. The Bears need Notre Dame to lose a game and then for Stanford to lose another or they need to see Ole Miss win the SEC. 11-1 Baylor getting in over 11-2 Florida, 11-2 Michigan, or 11-2 Stanford is an iffy proposition at best (though the Bears have a much better chance of getting in over Florida).
Pac 12
Stanford: The Cardinal are in trouble, but they are far from out of this. Winning out takes care of Notre Dame, by definition. If that happens, Stanford will just need one conference to have a champion whose resume isn’t good enough. They’re a lock if Ole Miss wins the SEC. Stanford has a decent chance of getting in over 12-1 Iowa or 11-1 Oklahoma State or Baylor, but it is far from guaranteed. Stanford should feel safe about having a better resume than 12-1 North Carolina or 11-2 Florida, though. So they will be big Seminoles fans this week. Next week, though, the Cardinal will be pulling heavily for Florida and North Carolina.
SEC
Florida: The Gators cannot be feeling good after barely squeaking out wins over Vanderbilt and FAU. Win out, though, and it might not matter. 12-1 with three ranked wins is a pretty strong resume, even if Florida hasn’t looked pretty doing it. If Georgia wins this week and finishes 9-3, that win will look pretty good too. A Notre Dame loss will really make the Gators feel safe, but a 12-1 SEC champion is in a pretty solid position.
Alabama: The Tide are in if they win out. Can they survive a loss to Auburn this weekend, though? They still have a lot of good wins and will probably have the best two-loss resume in the country, except for maybe Michigan if the Wolverines win the Big Ten. This means that if the Tide loses the Iron Bowl, they should immediately start pulling for Stanford over Notre Dame. The Irish will be their last real threat, though Tide fans will have to sweat a little during the final selection show. Of course, they will also have to heavily root for Mississippi State in the Egg Bowl to guarantee winning the SEC. 10-2 Alabama won’t make the Playoff unless things get really chaotic elsewhere.
Independents
Notre Dame: The Irish have to feel worse this week than they did last week. It’s not all bad, though. If Notre Dame beats Stanford, they only need to see one real upset in the other conferences. Unfortunately, North Carolina winning the ACC is probably out of the question, because 12-1 Clemson–even if they don’t win the ACC–might still be ahead of Notre Dame due to head-to-head. Notre Dame wants to see Ole Miss or Florida win the SEC. If that doesn’t happen, they want 12-1 Iowa or 11-2 Michigan to win the Big Ten. If Oklahoma wins the Big 12, they will probably stay ahead of the Irish. So Notre Dame needs Oklahoma State to win Bedlam. If the final Playoff spot is between Notre Dame and Oklahoma State or Baylor, it is a toss-up at best. It would help Notre Dame if Baylor beats TCU badly this week and then loses to Texas next week, but even that might not be enough. The committee really doesn’t want to see it come down to an 11-1 Notre Dame against the Big 12 champ (not named Oklahoma), though, because that will be an impossibly tough decision. It would help the Irish if Texas beat Texas Tech this week, too, to get one of those committee-valued +.500 wins off of the Big 12 schedule.
Group of 5 Access Bid Rooting Interests
Houston and Navy: These two are all but locks if they win out, though a Toledo loss will make Houston feel safer.
Temple: The Owls were one spot behind Toledo in the committee’s most recent rankings. Will winning the AAC Championship Game be enough? Probably. But will a Toledo loss make them feel safer? Absolutely.
Toledo: The Rockets have to feel like a lock if USF wins the AAC but will be very nervous otherwise. Maybe they have a chance over Temple or Houston, but definitely not Navy. Either way, though, they are rooting hard for UConn this week. Even if Houston wins the AAC Championship Game over 9-3 Temple, maybe that’s not enough to jump Toledo. Maybe. It’s been a great season for the Rockets and they will end up ranked if they win out, but it’s probably not enough to get to a major bowl unless USF or 10-3 Temple wins the AAC.
Bowling Green: Their only real chance to get in is over USF. They need USF to win the AAC. Maybe they’ll be in the conversation against 10-3 Temple, but it’s very unlikely
Marshall and Western Kentucky: These two have a tiny chance to get in if they win out. They need to see USF win the AAC and Bowling Green to win the MAC. That’s their only chance to get this spot.
