Pick of the week: Colts (+3.5) at Jets


Coming off of an emotional victory against the Packers on the back of Chuck Pagano, this could have the makings of a let down game. That is of course if the Jets had anything resembling an offensive attack and had the ability to put up points in any traditional manner.

Betting against the Jets can be tricky, because they will come along with a Joe McKnight return to the house or a Cromartie pick-six that will ruin your week. But they are coming off of a short week after keeping it close with the Texans in prime time on Monday, and the Colts have a chance to walk into their house and take the Jets to the cleaners.

Andrew Luck is everything that he was supposed to be. A leader both on and off the field, the rookie could lead the Colts to eight or nine wins this season if they can stay healthy. Donald Brown is out for a few weeks, which certainly hurts their rushing attack, but youngster has shown some good cutting and tackle breaking ability in limited action this season. He will likely get the majority of the touches and could expose an overrated Jets defensive unit.

Much has been made of the career season that Reggie Wayne is on pace for, but he is not the only aerial weapon at Luck's disposal. A couple more rookies – TY Hilton and Coby Fleener are still earning their stripes, but with Cromartie likely matched up with Wayne for the day, it could be the time for another weapon to get a few more targets.

The Colts pass rush was impressive last week, but Robert Mathis went down with an injury as well and will miss at least a few weeks. So it will be up to a hobbled Dwight Freeney to get around the edge and make like even worse for Sanchize.

Shonn Greene is unable to make anyone miss, their best healthy corner is probably also their best healthy receiver and while Dustin Keller and Stephen Hill should be healthy for the game, they are still somewhat hobbled and unreliable.

Another factor that will surely not go unreported is Mr. Tebow. He will be good for a punt fake, a couple of first down runs and possibly even a completion this week. He will scream and run around and get everyone excited. Will that be enough to win the game outright for the Jets? It doesn't seem likely at this point.

While the Colts defence is still a work in progress, the Jets attack is so anaemic – operating at 4.7 yards per play against units that generally allow 5.4 yards per play – that they should be able to contain them. Key to beating the Jets is not allowing big plays. You will contain them when they have the ball with a chuck of field to work with, just keep them in front of you and away from their one or two playmakers.

Some see this as a let down looming for the Colts, but the way that they are talking, they will make this entire season about Pagano, and not just one game. Wayne is fired up and Luck is going to get the ball to him. They have a lot of rookies on the offensive side of the ball, but it is a young mans game and look for Hilton to possibly break out this week.


Pick of the Week record: 3-2

We are rolling now. Three straight wins after a pair of losses to start the season. Minnesota was kind enough to make me look good last week, and I am going with a team this week that beat me in week two, against the Vikings of course.

Jets are so perfectly terrible that they may squeak out a win this week, but it will be by a point or two if at all.