32 Flags Premier League betting guide-week 5

If you’re here, it’s probably already because you already like soccer. Well in addition to soccer, do you also like money? Do you like making money before you’ve even sat down to eat lunch on a Saturday? Of course you do! Which is why I’m here to bring you a new gambling feature.

Each week I’ll take a look at some of the game lines as well as some intriguing prop bets, give my thoughts, and hopefully guide you on the right path to making more money. I’d just like to say I’m not here to promote any illegal gambling, but statistics say you’re likely already partaking in that endeavor, and in that case, I’ll gladly offer you my advice. Let’s get started.

 

Chelsea (+135)

Arsenal (+190) 

Draw (+240)

I’m not going to dive into a full preview here since we’ll have a bunch of those up throughout the day. What I will say is this line is ridiculous. Arsenal aren’t favored for two simple reasons: 1) Arsene Wenger’s head to head record vs. Jose Mourinho is terrible and 2) Arsenal have been inconsistent this season. That’s it.

I’ve been very vocal this season about not buying into Chelsea, mainly because their squad depth is non-existent but even I didn’t expect them to start this bad. Hell they’re getting above even money at home, that’s unheard of for a Jose Mourinho team. Everyone keeps saying they’re too talented to stay in a funk for a long time but the truth is, the core of Chelsea’s team has gotten old really quickly. While normally it’s a slow occurrence it’s not completely unusual for it to happen to one teams players all at once, and when it does it’s almost impossible to get things back on track. That’s what has happened to Chelsea this year. Wenger’s poor head to head record be damned, Arsenal wants this game and they’ll get it. Jump all over that great value.

 

Stoke City (+140)

Leicester City (+185) 

Draw (+237) 

If you haven’t been watching Leicester City this season then you’ve been missing out on perhaps the most fun team to watch in the Premier League this season. “But can they do it on a rainy night day in Stoke?” Yes they can, mainly because that saying no longer applies. As we all know, Stoke are trying to rebuild the makeup of their team and play more appealing soccer, the issue is that revolution is taking quite a bit of time and as a result Stoke have looked pretty poor this season. Do I think they’ll figure it out eventually? Absolutely. Do I think Leicester City will play the way they are all year? Absolutely not. But right now Leicester City is hot and we gotta keep riding that wave.

 

Manchester City (-454)

West Ham (+1000)

Draw (+550)

When a line is this big the question isn’t will Manchester City win but rather by how much will Manchester City win. City is looking to right the ship coming off of a bad Champions League loss and you know they’re going to come out flying. Add in that striker Sergio Aguero returns from injury while Raheem Sterling and David Silva both should be fully recovered from knocks they picked up over the past week so you know City should be good for a few goals.

But I got news for you. I like this West Ham side. Of course I don’t +1000 to win like them, especially since City have yet to concede a goal in the league like them; but I like them to grab at least a goal, maybe two. City will be without defender Vincent Kompany meaning if there was ever a time for City’s run of clean sheets to come to an end this would be the week to do it. I see this one ending either 3-1 or 3-2 to City, and though the OVER 3.5 GOALS getting even money isn’t great, it’s still the best value you’ll find in this game.

 

Southampton (+200) 

Manchester United (+140) 

Draw (+225) 

United will be looking to right the ship after a second half letdown cost them their midweek Champions League match against PSV and are looking to avoid dropping their third straight away match. The team will be boosted by the news that captain Wayne Rooney has been declared fit to return for this match. However, there’s only one name that matters whether it’s on United’s team sheet or not and that name is Michael Carrick. Since the start of last season United have 75 percent of the matches Carrick has started, compared to just 32 percent without him. This season it’s far more simple, United have won every game Carrick has started, and haven’t won a single game where he hasn’t. What I’m saying is don’t you dare put a cent on United to win before the team news is released Sunday morning to make sure Carrick is in the team, and if you’re going to bet on United, look into betting United to win 1-0 (+600) since goals have not been coming easily to them this year.

Now what if Carrick doesn’t start? Here’s the thing, I don’t think it matters whether Carrick plays or not. I’m going to let you in a little secret that United fans are aware of but certainly haven’t wanted to say out loud while they shout about how David de Gea is the best goalkeeper in the world. Well it turns out de Gea hasn’t kept a clean sheet since March 15th against Tottenham! That’s 11 straight matches. Add in that Luke Shaw’s injury is going to cause United to re-shuffle their back four for the first time this season and I don’t think a clean sheet is likely at all, even with Southampton’s inconsistency and lack of attacking threat. I know we’re here to pick winners but in this case the best option out there is the draw (+225) and maybe parlay that with “2 total goals” (+217).

 

Other bets:

Just a few other bets real quick. Both Everton and Swansea have both been frisky at times this year, but neither have been consistent enough that I like the draw (+237) in that one. Crystal Palace (+300) against Tottenham? Yes please!

Enjoy everyone and let’s make some money.

(Remember that this is for entertainment purposes only. Know the risks of gambling and results may vary. Good luck.)