Stephen Strasburg MIAMI, FL – APRIL 19: Stephen Strasburg #37 of the Washington Nationals pitches during a game against the Miami Marlins at Marlins Park on April 19, 2016 in Miami, Florida. (Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images)

The Washington Nationals retained another one of their starters and dealt this winter’s free agent class a blow on Monday night when they signed Stephen Strasburg to a seven-year, $175 million contract extension.

The 27-year old, who was the #1 overall pick of the Nationals in the 2009 MLB Draft, was going to be the top player in this winter’s free agent market and likely would have commanded more from another team, despite his 2010 Tommy John surgery.

Strasburg has always been a pitcher where the potential doesn’t match the results. Despite averaging over one strikeout per inning during every season of his career, Strasburg has never had an ERA lower than 3.00 during his four full seasons in the majors. In 2015, his ERA was a career-worst 3.46 over 23 starts despite 155 strikeouts and just 26 walks over 127 1/3 innings.

This season however, the tide may be turning. Going into Monday night’s start against the Tigers, Strasburg had a 2.36 ERA in six starts, tallying 47 strikeouts and nine walks. A strong, healthy season could have bolstered his market even more this winter, but agent Scott Boras (notorious for not letting his players sign extensions) was apparently moved enough by Washington’s offer, likely because it includes an opt-out clause or two.

There is also deferred money in Strasburg’s contract, like in teammate Max Scherzer’s seven-year, $210 million deal.

This deal isn’t without risk for Washington – it’s the largest given to any pitcher that has had Tommy John surgery. The previous record came last winter, when ex-National Jordan Zimmerman got five years and $110 million from the Tigers. If Strasburg stays healthy and effective, the Nationals will have him and Scherzer heading their rotation through the end of the decade. If his elbow goes south, they’ll have what could be a sunk cost on their hands.

Strasburg’s contract will boost Washington’s payroll next year over $105 million for just seven players. Bryce Harper is not one of those players, as he still has two seasons left of arbitration before he’ll become a free agent after the 2018 season. Harper’s contract is more of a long-term concern than a short-term one however, as Washington has Jayson Werth’s mammoth contract coming off the books following the 2017 season.

Strasburg re-upping right now with Washington also deals a monstrous blow to this winter’s free agent class. With him off the market, the best free agent starting pitcher is…Andrew Cashner? Bartolo Colon? Jered Weaver? RA Dickey? There isn’t much to build on there, and players like Scott Kazmir and James Shields have to be licking their lips at the prospect of opting out of their contracts and cashing in again this offseason.

The Nationals have had a history of making bold, risky moves under Mike Rizzo. They’ve been rewarded with a total of three playoff wins over the past four seasons. But signing Strasburg to this extension may be his riskiest move yet, and one that either brings the Nationals a World Championship or dooms them to mediocrity. I really don’t think there’s much middle ground here – Strasburg’s extension will either end up being a coup, or a disaster.

About Joe Lucia

I hate your favorite team. I also sort of hate most of my favorite teams.

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