When the Indianapolis Colts went 2-14 during the 2011 season and wound up with the No. 1 overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft, it seemed almost unfair. In 2011, the Colts’ season was doomed by the absence of quarterback Peyton Manning, who underwent multiple neck surgeries, but the reward was the opportunity to draft can’t-miss quarterback prospect Andrew Luck to replace him. The Colts’ dominance of the AFC South seemed guaranteed to continue indefinitely.
And at first, it did — the Colts went 11-5 in each of Luck’s first three seasons, reaching the playoffs each time. Luck threw 23 touchdowns to 18 interceptions as a rookie, but also had over 4,300 passing yards. It appeared that the Colts would transition seamlessly from a perennial playoff threat with Manning under center to the same thing with Luck.
But things aren’t quite the same with the Colts’ second talent-of-a-generation quarterback. The cast of characters around Luck isn’t as strong as it often was in Manning’s era. And this lack of help given to Luck could send his career in a very different direction than was first anticipated. Without building a team around Luck — one designed to hold him up, magnify his strengths and minimize his weaknesses — his future may not be as bright as Manning’s before him.
Luck’s struggles: a relatively low career completion percentage of 58.1, his 101 touchdowns thrown to 55 interceptions, and his 115 career sacks taken are obviously not issues stemming solely from without. But it is true that the Colts have, for all intents and purposes, chosen to park their Ferrari on a high-traffic city street instead of relatively safe from harm inside a garage.
The offensive line has been a liability, and one the Colts have not invested in. Of their draft picks since Luck’s selection in 2012, only guard (and 2015 right tackle) Jack Mewhort has been a shining spot among the offensive linemen they have picked. Right guard Hugh Thornton, selected in the third round of the 2013 draft, ranked 65th among guards, according to Pro Football Focus in 2015, and there have been numerous players rotated in and out of the line with limited success.
But it’s not just the line and the beating Luck has taken because of its inconsistency that has done him little help. It’s also the receiving corps and the state of the run game that has stunted Luck’s growth. Coming into the league, he had the waning years of Reggie Wayne. Last season, he had the waning year of Andre Johnson. T.Y. Hilton, drafted in the same year as Luck, has been his only truly reliable receiving target. Receiver Phillip Dorset, a head-scratcher of a 2015 first-round pick, caught a mere 18 passes for 225 yards and one score in his rookie year. Tight end Coby Fleener, a former Stanford teammate of Luck’s also drafted in 2012, has moved on to the New Orleans Saints.
Meanwhile, the Colts’ run game has not ranked better than 20th in yardage and 10th in touchdowns scored during Luck’s tenure. In 2015, the running attack was 29th in yards and 28th in touchdowns scored in 2015. As such, the Colts need Luck to lead the team — he’s ranked 11th in passing attempts from 2012 through 2015 despite missing nine games last season — while at the same time withholding proper offensive line protection and not finding him enough weapons in the passing game to throw to.
And about those nine missed games last year: They were the first of Luck’s NFL career, but they were significant ones. Not only did they both directly and indirectly lead to the Colts going 8-8 on the season, but they were varied. First, Luck missed Weeks 4 and 5 with an injured shoulder. Then, in November, he suffered a lacerated kidney and torn abdominal muscle that ultimately cost him his season.
All of this affects Luck’s earning potential going forward. His initial rookie deal was a four-year contract worth $22.1 million. The Colts then picked up his fifth-year option, worth $16.155 million for the 2016 season. With Luck coming off of such serious injuries, it’s entirely possible that a contract extension or big new deal won’t happen until the 2017 offseason. What happens this year could mean the difference between a long-term contract worth a maximum of well over $100 million and a shorter, less lucrative deal with a prove-it component, something that seems like a slap in the face given Luck’s actual talent and how it’s been minimized by the Colts.
It’s not difficult to see how the Colts have failed Luck over the early years of his NFL career. With a franchise-type quarterback like Luck, all efforts should have been made to give him the weapons he needs in the passing game, the safety valve of an effective run game and an offensive line to protect him, in order to increase the height of his already high ceiling. The defense, too, has done Luck few favors, ranking primarily in the 20s in both points and yards allowed, causing Luck to have to carry the team more than he rightly should.
Luck’s career hangs in the balance in 2016, what with the injury-marred close to his 2015 and this being a contract year. With Ryan Grigson still running the show as general manager, it’s hard to feel optimistic that this is the year when the Colts get their personnel right. But one thing is certain: Luck can’t do this alone. And the legacy of his early career hinges on the decisions the Colts make in the upcoming draft.
