The NCAA Tournament field of 68 is now official after the conclusion of the CBS March Madness Selection Show. Naturally, this means that there are a lot of upset fans around college basketball who feel like their team was perhaps snubbed of a spot in the tournament. But who are the teams who have the biggest, and perhaps most justified gripe with being left out of the tournament?
The conference tournaments around the league did not do bubble teams any favors whatsoever. The likes of the Oregon Ducks, the NC State Wolfpack, and the UAB Blazers all likely wouldn’t have found themselves in the tournament. But they each went on miraculous runs to win their respective conference tournament, “stealing” a bid from hopeful teams on the bubble.
Naturally, this higher-than-usual amount of bid stealers led to several teams that expected to be in the tournament finding themselves on the wrong side of the bubble.
With this in mind, let’s take a look at five teams who have a very clear argument that they were snubbed of a tournament spot and perhaps should have been in.
5. St. John’s Red Storm
Resume:
- Record: 20-13
- Conference: Big East
- NET Rating: 32
St. John’s found themselves among several Big East teams on the bubble heading into Selection Sunday. Unfortunately for them and their Big East counterparts, the selection committee didn’t have much love for the conference as a whole.
The biggest thing in St. John’s favor as a tournament hopeful was their 32nd NET Rating, which was the second highest of the teams to miss the tournament behind only Indiana State.
The Big East as a whole was perhaps the most top-loaded conference in the country this season with the likes of UConn, Marquette, and Creighton.
Naturally, St. John’s overall record wasn’t the best. But they did have some big wins against Creighton and a number of their fellow bubble-hopeful teams like Providence and Seton Hall.
Do I ultimately believe that St. John’s should have gotten in? No, but the case is there to make for them to be in. And St. John’s fans are likely quite upset about this result.
4. Pittsburgh Panthers
Resume:
- Record: 22-11
- Conference: Atlantic Coast Conference
- NET Rating: 40
The Pittsburgh Panthers finished with with fourth-best regular season record in the ACC, which most fans would assume set them up well for potentially a deep run in the ACC Tournament.
But unfortunately, they fell to North Carolina in the ACC Tournament Semifinals, leaving some doubt about their status as a bubble team heading into Selection Sunday.
Panthers fans can likely blame NC State for not receiving an at-large bid, as the Wolfpack went on to earn their own automatic bid by defeating North Carolina in the ACC Tournament title game.
Pittsburgh had some big wins on the year over the likes of Virginia and Duke. But a negative on their resume that perhaps could have been the deciding factor for Pittsburgh was their weak strength of schedule in non-conference games, ranking at just 343rd in the country in that statistic.
NON-CONFERENCE STRENGTH OF SCHEDULE (NET rating among Bubble Teams):
21. Texas A&M
44. Michigan State
160. Virginia
172. St. John’s
187. Indiana State
231. Seton Hall
233. Providence
249. Wake Forest
262. Colorado
271. Oklahoma
273. New Mexico
328. TCU
343. Pittsburgh— Jeff Goodman (@GoodmanHoops) March 16, 2024
Had they faced some more difficult competition in non-conference play, Pittsburgh could very well have found themselves in the big dance. But instead, they will be watching the tournament at home.
3. Seton Hall Pirates
Resume:
- Record: 20-12
- Conference: Big East
- NET Rating: 67
Like St. John’s, Seton Hall did not find themselves on the right side of the bubble out of the Big East. With big wins over teams like UConn and Marquette, it sure seems like they absolutely should have been in the field of 68.
That was not the case after a disappointing early exit in the Big East Tournament at the hands of St. John’s. This can be blamed on a pretty poor non-conference record that saw them lose to some questionable opposition like USC and Rutgers.
When this Seton Hall team was on, there is no doubt that they were amongst the most dangerous teams in the country. But consistency was the issue when it came to this team, which is ultimately why they were kept out of the tournament.
2. Indiana State Sycamores
Resume:
- Record: 28-6
- Conference: Missouri Valley Conference
- NET Rating: 29
Of all of the bubble teams that didn’t make it in, Indiana State was the team that performed the best against their respective opponents. The black mark on Indiana State’s resume is that they simply didn’t play enough high-profile teams, with their only Quad-1 win coming against their in-conference rival, the Drake Bulldogs.
If the selection committee had strictly gone off of the NET rating, which takes into account several factors including game results, strength of schedule, game location, net offensive and defensive efficiency, and the quality of wins and losses, Indiana State should have been a shoo-in to get into the tournament.
In fact, Indiana St. and St. John’s are the only teams since NET rankings began in 2018 to have a NET ranking better than 33rd to be left out of the tournament.
The NET rankings began in 2018.
Prior to today, the highest ranked team in the NET to be left out of the NCAA Tournament was 33rd.
Two teams were inside that, but left out of the 2024 field:
• Indiana St – 29
• St. John’s – 32A peculiar bracket bubble.
— Ben Stevens (@BenScottStevens) March 17, 2024
Again, Indiana State did nearly everything they could possibly do outside of winning their conference tournament to get into the big dance. But it seems like the selection committee simply didn’t believe that they had tested themselves against high enough competition to get in.
1. Oklahoma Sooners
Resume:
- Record: 20-12
- Conference: Big 12
- NET Rating: 46
The selection committee consistently praises teams who face a high level of competition throughout the year. And perhaps nobody on the bubble faced more fierce competition than Oklahoma did in the ultra-competitive Big 12.
Oklahoma’s biggest talking point as a tournament bubble team is their tough competition throughout the season, and the fact that they have virtually zero bad losses on the year.
All 12 of their losses are against Quad-1 teams, with an overall 4-12 record against these Quad-1 opponents. Against anyone else, Oklahoma had a combined 16-0 record. This is the first time that a team with zero Quad-2, Quad-3, or Quad-4 losses has missed the tournament.
Oklahoma might be the first team to EVER be left out that has ZERO Q2, Q3, or Q4 losses.
Every single loss was Q1.
— College Basketball Report (@CBKReport) March 17, 2024
This can be used as either a positive or a negative when you consider how that affects a team’s overall resume. On one hand, Oklahoma was clearly a team that was a notch above teams that were not considered Quad-1 caliber teams. But on the other hand, they experienced little success against their tougher competition in their conference.
Based solely on what the selection committee typically looks for, Oklahoma seems like they very much should have been a team in the tournament. But instead, it seems like the big-stealers found a way to keep them out this year.
[NCAA]
