Texas Longhorns quarterback Arch Manning is returning to the program in 2026 for his senior season, rather than declare early for the NFL draft. Manning’s decision isn’t the shocking one, considering how he and the Longhorns underperformed this year, but it’s one that would’ve felt unfathomable heading into the season.

So, how did we arrive here? Time to start at the beginning.

Arch Manning exploded onto the recruiting scene as the number one high school recruit in the 2023 class, per 247sports, not only at the quarterback position, but among all players in the country. Manning was designated with a perfect 100 5-star rating, basically, as can’t miss an All-American and future first-rounder as they come.

For anyone wondering why Arch Manning struggled yesterday, this was his competition in high school: pic.twitter.com/r84qCDSKRG

— College Sports Only (@CSOonX) August 31, 2025

However, a dive into Manning’s high school tape paints a slightly different story. Why does he look like he’s playing against middle schoolers in the clip? The Louisiana High School Athletic Association has four separate divisions (1A-4A, with 4A widely recognized as the most competitive). Manning, who entered college listed at 6-4, 219 pounds, competed in 2A. So, while he had the profile of a future Sunday player, his competition largely did not.

Why then was Arch billed as the next great quarterback? That’s easy. His pedigree.

It can be hard to escape the long shadow of your lineage, just ask Bronny James. In Manning’s case, he is the nephew of two of the greatest quarterbacks to ever do it in Peyton and Eli Manning, and the grandson of former Pro Bowl quarterback Archie Manning. So, when Arch started dominating, it was impossible to ignore.

Between his dominance on the field and his dynastic ties, a pairing with the Longhorns and offensive guru Steve Sarkisian seemed like the perfect fit, and so Arch committed to Texas.

Manning’s freshman year was quiet, seeing the field only once, when he attempted five passes in a blowout 57-5 win over the Texas Tech Red Raiders. His sophomore season is when he finally began to make some noise.

Manning opened the 2024 season once again as the backup behind Quinn Ewers, himself a former five-star recruit. Still, Manning was fine with waiting his turn to prove himself, and his patience was even commended by his uncle, Peyton.

“I’m proud of Arch. I’m proud of him,” Peyton said. “Most kids probably wouldn’t have stayed in that situation. He went to Texas because he wanted to play at Texas. He wanted to go to college and play for (Steve) Sarkisian… most of the right reasons you should choose a college. I’m glad he’s staying there.”

He didn’t have to wait long. Ewers went down with an injury early in the campaign, and Manning took college football by storm, electrifying defenses both on the ground and through the air in spot duty. Ewers returned to the starting role when he was healthy, but the program was surrounded by the buzz that Sarkisian should turn to Manning, especially as the offense showed inconsistencies under Ewers.

Sarkisian was steadfast in his support of his starter, save for a brief benching against Georgia, and Manning was relegated largely to off-pitch packages for the remainder of the season, with Ewers leading a playoff run that came to an end against the future national champions, the Ohio State Buckeyes.

Ewers went on to declare for the draft, paving the way for Manning to assume the starting role, and the media was ready.

“We put him at No. 1 because we have to. It’s Arch Manning.”

ESPN college football analyst Paul Finebaum billed Manning as “the best college football quarterback we have seen since Tim Tebow entered the scene in 2006.”

ESPN draft expert Mel Kiper had just as much, if not more, praise for Manning. It didn’t matter that he’d never started a full season at the college level.

“We put him at No. 1 because we have to. It’s Arch Manning. We saw glimpses last year of the greatness he could provide that Texas offense. Running the football, he’s got great legs. Cooper Manning, his father, was a wide receiver until he got injured. So he’s got speed – something Eli and Peyton didn’t have,” he said.

Even Vegas was licking its chops, listing Manning as the odds-on Heisman trophy favorite heading into the season. And with the media attention and natural fanfare came the money, with Sportsgrid listing Manning as the highest earner in college football for the 2025 season via NIL, cashing in a whopping $6.5 million.

Things changed once the season hit. Texas opened the year against the same Buckeyes that ended their playoff run a season ago, and Manning didn’t look anything like a Heisman candidate. It was a trend that seemed to continue whenever the Longhorns faced comparable competition. The media started to shift the other way.

“The bottom line is Arch Manning is not playing like an elite quarterback,” Finebaum said during the early part of the season. “He’s barely playing like a pedestrian quarterback. He had some good plays (against San Jose State), but that game doesn’t mean anything. Ultimately, I think we all jumped the gun. Is he in the Heisman race? No, Arch Manning is not in the Heisman race as of today.”

But over the course of the season, Manning improved. As the Longhorns’ offensive line woes became glaringly apparent, Manning’s play became the reason the Longhorns’ offense saw any success. Leading the team to ranked wins over the Vanderbilt Commodores and even the undefeated Texas A&M Aggies.

Manning didn’t do enough to overcome the team’s three losses and get the Longhorns into the College Football Playoff, but Manning’s talent was clear as day, at least to the decision makers and scouts around the NFL.

“All the tools are there, even if the performance was erratic. He might need a little time to grow into himself as a player. But he’s got the size (6-foot-4, 219 pounds), the arm, the intangibles, and the kid had some great games,” one scout told FOX Sports’ Ralph Vacchiano. “I think I’d still feel better about his future than anyone else in this year’s class.”

“Talent,” an NFC executive said. “He never lost that. It’s what all the hype was about from the beginning, and it’s still there. It’s not alarming that he was inconsistent in his first year as a starter in the SEC. It’s perfectly normal. The expectations were probably way too high, anyway.”

So, were the media and scouts right about Arch along? When Arch returns for his senior season, will he be the best to grace a college football field since Tebow? No, probably not. He doesn’t seem to have the same elite processing ability as his uncles. He hasn’t even displayed the pinpoint accuracy of Ohio State quarterback Julian Sayin. But Sayin and his uncles don’t have Manning’s wheels, either.

Arch isn’t the prodigy he was billed as, but he’s not a failure. He isn’t his uncle, either of them. He’s not Julian Sayin. He’s Arch Manning, and he’s still improving. He may be raw right now, but give him time. The tools are there, and so are the intangibles. Hell, maybe Arch Manning should be the 2026 Heisman favorite.

Manning and the Longhorns will close out the season on December 31st, against the Michigan Wolverines, in the Citrus Bowl.