Jeremy Pena homers in the ALCS. He would go on to win the ALCS MVP. Oct 23, 2022; Bronx, New York, USA; Houston Astros shortstop Jeremy Pena (3) hits a three run home run against the New York Yankees in the third inning during game four of the ALCS for the 2022 MLB Playoffs at Yankee Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports
GamblingMLBBy Matt Clapp on

The 2022 MLB World Series between the Philadelphia Phillies and Houston Astros begins Friday at Minute Maid Park. The Phillies went on a stunning run to reach the World Series after an 89-win regular season that featured firing manager Joe Girardi. The Astros followed up a 106-win regular season by going 7-0 so far in the postseason.

First, we’ll take a look at the World Series title odds, and then we’ll break down five appealing player prop bets to consider.

World Series title odds

It should be no surprise that the Astros — who are in the World Series for the fourth time in six years — are viewed as the clear betting favorites to win the championship.

FanDuel has the Astros at -190 on the moneyline to win the World Series, while the Phillies come in at +165.

DraftKings has it as Astros -185, Phillies +160.

As for what projection systems think, FanGraphs gives the Astros a 54.4% chance to win the title, while FiveThirtyEight favors the Astros much more at 67%.

World Series player prop bets to consider

We’ve chosen a handful of World Series player prop bets that we find intriguing.

Note: these are not necessarily what we’d view as the most likely results. We’re looking for value and a few darkhorse candidates.

Alex Bregman most home runs (+1300 on DraftKings):

Bregman comes in at sixth among players most likely to lead the World Series in home runs. At 13/1, there’s a lot of value here (FanDuel has it as 11/1).

The right-handed hitter loves the Crawford Boxes down the left-field line at Minute Maid Park, as he showed in the ALCS.

In the regular season, Bregman hit 16 homers in Houston, compared to seven homers on the road (he also batted .305 at home, compared to .215 on the road; he’s +750 lead the series in hits, which also makes for an appealing bet). While Bregman hit 23 total home runs, Baseball Savant thinks he would’ve hit 31 homers if all the games were at Minute Maid Park (that’s three-plus more homers than he’d be projected for in any other park).

And the first two games are in Houston. If the series goes seven games, four games will be in Houston (Baseball Savant also thinks he would’ve hit 24 homers in Philadelphia, so his power game plays fine there too).

Bryce Harper most RBI (+750 on DraftKings):

The two-time NL MVP is the fourth player — but the first Phillies player — listed among the favorites.

Harper’s 11 RBI this postseason are tied with teammate Rhys Hoskins for the most in MLB, and he’s put together a ridiculous 1.351 OPS so far over 11 postseason games.

A red-hot Harper is as good as hitting gets, and the NLCS MVP loves the big stage and moments.

Jean Segura most hits (+1900 on FanDuel):

This is a very under-the-radar pick, with Segura a distant 11th among the players listed on these odds.

But Segura is the classic “professional hitter” who’s very consistent in his game and can hit elite pitching (of which the Astros have plenty). Segura is a career .285 hitter that hit .277 in 2022 and .290 in 2021. He was limited to 98 games this season due to injury, but he’s healthy now and has come through with some big hits for the Phillies.

Don’t be shocked if Segura is one of the most impactful bats in the World Series and leads in hits.

Jeremy Peña World Series MVP (+1800 on FanDuel):

The Astros lost superstar shortstop Carlos Correa over the offseason… and then replaced him with a rookie that went on to be worth 4.8 wins above replacement (WAR) per Baseball Reference.

Peña showed off a solid — with the upside for much more in the future — power/speed combo that included 22 home runs and 11 stolen bases in his rookie campaign. He’s looked even better in the postseason, crushing three home runs, two of which were crucial blasts in series-winning games.

Oh, and Peña is an elite defensive shortstop already. His 15 defensive runs saved in the regular season were tied for first among MLB shortstops.

Peña makes big plays with his bat, baserunning, and defense at a premium position. It’s led to him being named ALCS MVP, and it could lead to a World Series MVP. If Houston wins the series, Peña’s contributions on both sides of the game will likely be a big reason why.

Aaron Nola, Zack Wheeler World Series MVP (Nola +1700 on FanDuel, Wheeler +1900 on FanDuel):

We just combined these two players, as the odds and reasoning for each bet are very similar.

Basically, if the Phillies are winning the World Series, it likely includes at least one of these pitchers putting together multiple great starts (potentially up to three appearances).

These are each ace-level arms for Philadephia that are capable of outdueling Justin Verlander and company.

Nola had a 3.25 ERA and 2.58 FIP over 205 innings pitched for the Phillies in the regular season, while Wheeler had a 2.82 ERA and 2.89 FIP over 153 innings.

The success has carried over to the postseason, with Nola putting together a 3.12 ERA and 3.06 FIP over 17 2/3 innings, and Wheeler putting together a 1.78 ERA and 2.36 FIP over 25 1/3 innings.

It appears that Nola will get the Game 1 start, which is why he’s listed slightly higher than Wheeler among the favorites. But they each will have the opportunity to be huge difference-makers in the series.

About Matt Clapp

Matt is an editor at The Comeback. He attended Colorado State University, wishes he was Saved by the Bell's Zack Morris, and idolizes Larry David. And loves pizza and dogs because obviously.

He can be followed on Twitter at @Matt2Clapp (also @TheBlogfines for Cubs/MLB tweets and @DaBearNecess for Bears/NFL tweets), and can be reached by email at mclapp@thecomeback.com.

View all posts by Matt Clapp