The Milwaukee Brewers have won the National League Central division in two of the last three seasons. The Brew Crew’s campaign for a third division title in four seasons is well underway over a month into the season. Milwaukee entered Sunday with a 24-16 record, good enough for first place in the NL Central. They’ve scored a division-best 200 runs and have allowed just 164 runs, the fewest in the division thus far. So they’re winning with balance, which some might not have expected from the usually pitching-heavy Brewers.
But it hasn’t been easy for the Crew. No, their rivals to the south on I-94 have made quite an early commotion. The Chicago Cubs are out to a great start themselves. Chicago sits at 24-17, one game back in the loss column and 1/2 game out of first place. Chicago has allowed 173 runs, but they’ve scored 190, showing plenty of life with their bats. The run prevention department might have room for early concern, but the Cubs appear ready to go.
Chicago and Milwaukee are no strangers to each other and no strangers to bouts for the NL Central. It looks like that’s going to happen again in 2024. Here are a few reasons why.
William Contreras
William Contreras has been the Brewers’ best player through nearly the first quarter of the season. He’s shown a dynamo ability at the plate to hit for both average and power this year, putting him on a scorching pace. The former Atlanta Brave is slashing .346/.429/.526, good for an OPS of .955. He’s pulled an impressive double-digit BB% of 12.1 percent. The patient Contreras has maintained that throughout his career, but he’s doing it at an even better rate in 2024.
His .415 BABIP will probably descend at some point, but he’ll still average out to a dangerous hitter. At 26, he might be beginning to round into form. For now, that’s the Brewers’ gain and everyone else’s loss.
Shōta Imanaga
Your ERA leader in the second weekend of May is Chicago Cubs hurler Shōta Imanaga. Signed from Japan, Imanaga came into the year with many fans excited about what he has to offer. What Imanaga has done this season is perhaps beyond anyone else’s wildest imagination. The stifling southpaw has posted a 1.08 ERA in 41.2 innings pitched. He’s thrown 43 strikeouts and posted a WHIP of just 0.816. Oh, and for the traditionalists, he’s 5-0.
There’s no telling what Imanaga will look like once he starts to face some trouble. But early returns suggest the Cubs may have found a gem. Imanaga will keep them in contention if he keeps throwing his stuff.
The middle infield
One key to Chicago and Milwaukee’s successes in 2024 will be the play of the middle infield. So far, so good. Dansby Swanson and Nico Hoerner have been an excellent combo on the North Side, while Brice Turang and Willy Adames have been potent themselves up in Milwaukee.
The Cubs likely hold the advantage on defense in this category, although Adames and Turang are far from poor defenders. Swanson is currently dealing with an injury, but he’s OPS’d over .700 so far, while Hoerner has put up similar numbers.
Nico Hoerner update:
.275/.364/.399, 9.7 BB%, 9.1 K%, 122 wRC+
— Matt Clapp (@TheBlogfines) May 13, 2024
Milwaukee outweighs them here, however, but only slightly, thanks to Adames’ slugging numbers. Adames has slugged .458 this year, which only trails Mookie Betts, Elly De La Cruz, CJ Abrams, and Trea Turner for the National League lead. Watch up the middle; that’s where this division could really be won.
Superiority over the field
A simple reason for why the Brewers and Cubs will succeed this year is the competition around him. Through May 11, the Cubs have a five-game lead over third-place Pittsburgh. The Pirates and the Cincinnati Reds both have exciting young talent but probably won’t compete again this year.
The St. Louis Cardinals had a habit of contending but fell on hard times. They are a Central-worst 15-24 and already nine games back of Milwaukee and 8.5 back of Chicago. Pittsburgh and Cincinnati might be 2 or 2.5 games back, but it will be tough sledding competing with Atlanta or Philadelphia, Chicago and/or Milwaukee, and feisty San Diego, as well as the other teams above them on the ladder.
Simply put, the Brewers and Cubs are better than the rest so far, which might help them stay on top of the division.
