Having spent most of the winter huddled around a chilly stove, we’re now enjoying some real-life baseball news just in time for spring (training). That in this metaphor we’re relying on baseball rumors and transactions for life-giving energy is probably not ideal, all things considered, but let’s not think about that right now.
Today’s news: outfielder/DH J.D. Martinez is heading to the Red Sox, news that trickled out throughout the day.
Red Sox, soon
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) February 19, 2018
Breaking: JD Martinez and Red Sox are moving close to a deal. not done yet. details not known yet.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) February 19, 2018
Olney confirmed Heyman’s report, taking the opportunity to once again tweak Heyman over his Boras sourcing in what’s amounted to the surprise feud of the offseason:
Red Sox moving closer to a deal with slugger J.D. Martinez, who is represented by Scott Boras. @JonHeyman had it first.
— Buster Olney (@Buster_ESPN) February 19, 2018
And Pedro Gomez first reported the deal was final, along with some terms:
It’s done. JD Martínez is a Red Sox.
— Pedro Gomez (@pedrogomezESPN) February 19, 2018
It’s a five-year deal and Martinez can opt out after two years.
— Pedro Gomez (@pedrogomezESPN) February 19, 2018
Jon Morosi and Heyman added the financial details:
J.D. Martinez’s deal is $110 million over 5 years, sources say. Contract is front-loaded prior to opt-out. @MLBNetwork @MLB
— Jon Morosi (@jonmorosi) February 19, 2018
JD Martinez will have 2 opt-outs in his 5-year deal. deal frontloaded (50M 1st 2 yrs). 110M total.
— Jon Heyman (@JonHeyman) February 19, 2018
On the surface, that’s an absolutely fantastic deal for the Red Sox. From a defensive perspective, Martinez isn’t really a playable every day outfielder, though if you had to stick him in left for a game or two his bat would still probably make up for his defense.
And what a bat it was in 2017. Martinez slashed .303/.376/.690(!) en route to 45 home runs and 3.8 fWAR. (If you’re a Baseball-Reference person, he looked even more impressive there, earning 4.1 bWAR.) Martinez did that in just 119 games, having missed the first month or so of the year with a sprained foot from which he apparently made a full recovery.
The Red Sox always made sense for Martinez; designated hitters across the AL were more designated than hitter last year, and Travis Sawchik wrote at Fangraphs that plugging what could be one of the best bats in the game into the DH-slot could be a classic market exploitation:
So with the DH looking to be historically weak and few teams willing to pay a premium for the position, this might be a point in time when it makes sense for the right club to invest in the DH and gain a competitive advantage in the process.
The Red Sox jump out as an obvious candidate. That’s why they’ve been connected to J.D. Martinez all winter and reportedly have a standing five-year offer out to the Boras client. An agreement has seemed inevitable, but pitchers and catchers are scheduled to report tomorrow and nothing has yet occurred. Boston ought not to let this opportunity slide away.
…
Since 2015, Martinez has posted the seventh-best wRC+ in the game (147). Last season, amongst hitters who made at least 400 plate appearances, Martinez’s 166 wRC+ trailed only that of Mike Trout and Aaron Judge.
Yes, we have to worry about how Martinez will age. Yes, he could fall off a cliff. Yes, there is risk. But there appears to be little immediate or short-term concern. They’ve already traded a lot of tomorrow for right now. And Martinez is not yet ancient. He’s entering his age-30 season.
Those are excellent numbers, and the structure of the contract is a big win for Boston. To only guarantee $110 million for a hitter of that caliber, regardless of age/defensive liability, is a bargain. The front-loading does mean they’re paying a high value for what could end up being a two-year deal, but given the aging curve those should be the best two years of Martinez’s time in Boston; if he plays well enough to opt out it means Boston will have likely gotten full value, while avoiding any lingering downside on the back-end.
And if Martinez does indeed stay in Boston for the length of the deal, the front-loading means those final years make him more palatable to carry as a role player if he’s deteriorated, or even to just eat the contract outright should the need arise.
For Martinez, it’s certainly a step down from when he was reported to have been seeking something near $200 million at the beginning of the offseason, and it’s definitely fair to think a true market value would have been in the middle of those two poles. But that’s not how things have gone for players this year, hence the opt-outs in this deal and in Yu Darvish’s deal with the Cubs.
Whatever the implications for player-owner relations going forward, though, it’s clear that the Red Sox are better with Martinez than without him, and it’s also a nice bit of nostalgia to have the old New York/Boston AL East arms race (or bats race, in this case) race heating up again.