CINCINNATI, OH – SEPTEMBER 28: Bronson Arroyo #61 of the Cincinnati Reds throws a pitch during the game against the Pittsburgh Pirates at Great American Ball Park on September 28, 2013 in Cincinnati, Ohio. (Photo by John Sommers II/Getty Images)
MLBBy Matt Clapp on

Baseball is wacky and generally unpredictable, but we can already say that we have a pretty good idea of how things will go for several MLB teams this year.

We already know that, barring catastrophic injuries and severe misfortune, the Cubs, Dodgers, Red Sox, Indians, and Nationals will all be pretty good to great. We also already know that, barring extreme luck (and probably production from players we aren’t even thinking about now), the White Sox, Reds, and Padres will be bad to full-on dumpster fire awful.

In the case of the White Sox, you can at least squint and see a path to contention. Jose Quintana, Carlos Rodon, Todd Frazier, Jose Abreu, Tim Anderson, David Robertson, and Nate Jones are already very good baseball players (and James Shields was recently a very good baseball player). Their farm system is now loaded, with Yoan Moncada considered by most to be the game’s top prospect (at least if we exclude Boston’s Andrew Benintendi from being a “prospect”). Maybe Chicago’s already-good veterans have big years and prospects like Moncada arrive with an impact sooner than we think. It’s a longshot, but it’s at least *possible*.

But in the case of the Padres and Reds for 2017, there is virtually no hope. And it starts with the starting rotations, which are, well, yikes.

And note: we don’t even know the exact five starters in each rotation yet. But we know plenty enough to conclude how awful these rotations are.

Here’s what we know so far about the Padres’ Opening Day rotation:

Jhoulys Chacin has been named the Opening Day starter. The 29-year-old had a 4.81 ERA last year — with the Angels and Braves — in 144 innings pitched, which are the most innings he’s thrown since 2013.

33-year-old left-hander Clayton Richard is the No. 2 starter. He has not made over 12 starts in a season since 2012 (which was actually with the Padres).

And Jered Weaver is the No. 3. You may be thinking, “Hey, he’s been very good before,” and you’d be right. But he’s not that Jered Weaver. He’s a Jered Weaver that AVERAGES 83 MPH ON HIS FASTBALL. For real. He’s a major league pitcher whose average fastball velocity is 83 MPH. And you’re not going to believe it, but he struggled to get batters out with that 83 MPH fastball, putting up a 5.06 ERA and 5.62 FIP in 2016. Turns out that– unless you’re a knuckleballer — you can’t just float the ball up there and hope to succeed at the big-league level.

So those are the Padres’ starting pitchers we know for sure. Those three pitchers have managed to, somehow, lock up three starting rotation spots already in the major leagues. And not just three starting rotation spots, but a team’s top three starting rotation spots.

As for San Diego’s final two rotation spots? Trevor Cahill, Luis Perdomo, and Jarred Cosart are in contention for those.

Cahill is a decent sinkerballer swingman, but was left off the Cubs’ playoff roster last year. He last made over three starts in a season in 2014, when he had a 5.61 ERA for the Diamondbacks in 110 2/3 innings. Perdomo is actually interesting, and the one guy that appears to have some real upside. But the 23-year-old is still very raw, as his 5.71 ERA in 146 2/3 innings for the Padres last season would indicate. And Cosart is a former top prospect that seems better-suited for the bullpen. He walked a whopping 6.16 batters per nine innings last year, more than he struck out (6.00 per nine).

It’s hard to imagine an Opening Day starting rotation being worse than this. It’s really not an exaggeration to say that it’s Triple-A quality.

And here’s the most incredible thing: the Cincinanti Reds’ starting rotation may be every bit as bad…

Here’s what we know so far about the Reds’ Opening Day rotation:

First off, it should be pointed out that Anthony DeSclafani (3.28 ERA; 3.0 WAR in 2016) is a very good pitcher that is currently out with an elbow injury which could require Tommy John Surgery, but the Reds hope he will be okay with a few weeks’ rest and rehab. And Homer Bailey is another veteran starter that could be helpful, but figures to be out until at least June with an elbow injury. But these pitchers are currently not available, and it’s certainly possible that they won’t be available at all this season (or at least without as much effectiveness).

And with those injuries, that leaves Scott Feldman as the Opening Day starter. Not the bizarro Kramer from across the hall, but rather the guy known for being the other guy in the trade that brought Jake Arrieta and Pedro Strop to the Cubs from the Orioles. ZiPS projects Feldman for a 4.81 ERA and 4.85 FIP in 2017. He’d be a decent back-of-the-rotation starter on most teams. You do not want him being your OPENING DAY starter, however.

Brandon Finnegan is in the rotation, and the 23-year-old left-hander actually showed off some pretty nasty stuff last year (including a much-improved changeup in the second half), despite a rough 5.19 FIP. If the Reds’ rotation avoids being absolutely terrible, a jump from Finnegan into legit-good starter territory would likely be a huge reason why. It’s certainly possible, but projections such as Steamer are understandably being cautious (4.61 ERA and 4.74 FIP). Still, there’s at least reason to have some optimism here, and Reds fans will gladly take that.

So, with Feldman and Finnegan, the Reds at least have two passable starters. After that, there is far less certainty (and likely a lot of bad).

It was just announced — I actually had to rewrite much of this post — that Rookie Davis and Amir Garrett are in the rotation:

Rookie Davis is, you guessed it, a rookie. No word on if the 23-year-old will change his name should he stay in the majors for several years. ZiPS projects Davis for a 5.25 ERA this season.

Now, Amir Garrett is the most intriguing pitcher to make the Reds’ rotation. The former St. John’s basketball player is a consensus top-75 prospect in baseball, but he’s only thrown 67 2/3 innings above Double-A. The upside is certainly there, but ZiPS projects Garrett for a 4.96 ERA and 5.08 FIP as a rookie. It seems like a desperate move to put him in the rotation right now, and a bit questionable given how the Reds’ season is likely to go.

And for the fifth spot, well, that sounds dependent on how things go Sunday:

You may be asking yourself, “That can’t be BRONSON Arroyo, can it?” Yes, yes it can (for some reason). The same Bronson Arroyo that is 40 years old and last pitched in the majors in 2014, with his average fastball velocity nearing Jered Weaver territory at 85.4 MPH. He’s seriously expected to get one of these rotation spots. And that says it all.

So, regardless of how the final spots of the San Diego and Cincinnati rotations shake out, it’s hard to imagine MLB Opening Day starting rotations possibly being worse than these two. Even for expansion franchises, these rotations would be depressing.

About Matt Clapp

Matt is an editor at The Comeback. He attended Colorado State University, wishes he was Saved by the Bell's Zack Morris, and idolizes Larry David. And loves pizza and dogs because obviously.

He can be followed on Twitter at @Matt2Clapp (also @TheBlogfines for Cubs/MLB tweets and @DaBearNecess for Bears/NFL tweets), and can be reached by email at mclapp@thecomeback.com.

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