A minor MLB trade was made on Wednesday, lost in all the hoopla of Hall of Fame voting. The Tampa Bay Rays traded 27-year old outfielder Mikie Mahtook to the Detroit Tigers for cash or a player to be named later. While the deal probably won’t have a significant impact on either the Rays or the Tigers in 2017 and beyond, it is telling of how badly the Rays dropped the ball during the 2011 MLB Draft, during which the franchise could have set themselves up for long-term success — and failed miserably.
Tampa Bay went into that 2011 Draft with 10 of the top 60 picks. They went 96-66 in 2010 and won the AL East, and would finish 2011 at 91-71, claiming the AL Wild Card. Tampa Bay won 90 games in both 2012 and 2013, but has fallen under .500 in each of the last three seasons, and their failures during that 2011 draft (and frankly, in drafts stretching back to 2008) are a big reason why.
Just three of those first ten picks would end up reaching the majors. One was Mahtook, who’s now a Tiger. One was Tyler Goeddel, who the Rays lost to the Philadelphia Phillies in last year’s Rule 5 Draft. The third is Blake Snell, who was one of baseball’s top pitching prospects coming into the 2016 season and pitched to a 3.54 ERA over 89 MLB innings last season.
The other seven players drafted by the Rays have never reached the show.
- Taylor Guerrieri, chosen at #24, was a two or three-time top 100 prospect (depending on which outlet you prefer), but blew out his elbow and has thrown just 352 1/3 innings during his minor league career.
- Jake Hager, chosen at #32, missed all of the 2015 season following knee surgery, and has a career .262/.312/.361 line across five seasons in the minors.
- Brandon Martin, chosen at #38, hasn’t played pro baseball since 2013 and was arrested for murder in 2015.
- Jeff Ames, chosen at #42, has a career 3.33 ERA in 373 1/3 minor league innings, topping out at AA in both 2015 and 2016.
- Kes Carter, chosen at #56, was released by the organization in May of 2015. He spent the 2016 season with the Fargo-Moorhead Redhawks of the American Association.
- Grayson Garvin, chosen at #59, needed Tommy John surgery in 2012 and has dealt with other injuries over the years. He’s thrown just 208 2/3 innings of his pro career, pitching to a 3.71 ERA.
- James Harris, chosen at #60, was released by the team in March of 2015. He spent the last two years with the Oakland Athletics organization, and has hit .248/.329/.351 over his six year minor league career.
Ten of the top 60 picks. Five are still in the organization, with the team getting nothing significant for the five that are no longer with the club. It’s simply incredible, and a reminder of how little you can really count on prospects — and how important it is to take advantage of the positioning you have in the Draft.
It’s not as if the Rays were the only team to miss in that 2011 Draft, however. The Mariners drafted Danny Hultzen, who threw a total of 189 pro innings, at No. 2 overall. The Royals took Bubba Starling, who has hit .232/.308/.378 in five pro seasons, at No. 5. Anthony Rendon, Francisco Lindor, Javier Baez, George Springer, and the late, great Jose Fernandez were all taken between picks No. 6 and 15, after the Royals took Starling but before the Rays took Guerrieri at No. 24.
But a small market team like the Rays needs to have more than just Blake Snell five and a half years after a draft in which they had one-sixth of the first 60 picks.
It’s not as if Tampa Bay’s 2011 Draft was an outlier, either. Their three best players from the 2010 Draft were Kevin Kiermaier (an absolute steal in the 31st round), Jesse Hahn (traded to the Padres in 2014 as part of a seven player deal that brought Matt Andriese, Brad Boxberger, and Logan Forsythe to the Rays), and Derek Dietrich (traded to the Marlins in 2012 for Yunel Escobar). They didn’t sign either of their top two picks in 2009, and the best player they *did* manage to sign was 12th round pick Andrew Bellatti (non-tendered by the team this offseason).
2008 was the biggest disaster, though. The Rays drafted Tim Beckham, who has hit .238/.288/.431 in 151 MLB games, first overall. Second round pick Kyle Lobstein has bounced around the majors, pitching exactly zero innings for the Rays. No other player from that draft has reached the big leagues. A guy named Buster Posey out of Florida State was taken fifth overall by the Giants, and the rest is history for him.
Tampa Bay’s hoarding of early draft picks during that 2011 Draft was reminiscent of the Oakland Athletics’ strategy during the 2002 “Moneyball” draft. Oakland had seven of the top 39 picks after its top three free agents, Johnny Damon, Jason Giambi, and Jason Isringhausen, signed elsewhere. And while three of those seven didn’t make the majors, and one played just five games for the A’s, Oakland still got some level of value from Joe Blanton, Nick Swisher, and Mark Teahen. All were eventually traded by the A’s, but Blanton and Swisher were both traded as established major leaguers for even more young talent.
(ironically enough, Swisher was traded for a package that included Gio Gonzalez. Gonzalez was later traded to the Nationals for a package that included Derek Norris. Norris was then traded to the Padres for… Jesse Hahn!)
My general point is this: the Rays are a franchise that’s already at a disadvantage, given their small market, distressing attendance, low payroll, and disastrous stadium situation. When they’re in a situation where they can drastically reload their farm system and fail miserably, like they did in 2011, the results can be franchise-altering.
Interestingly enough, an AL East rival was in a similar situation in 2010, 2011, and 2012. The Toronto Blue Jays had three of the top 41 picks in 2010, five of the top 57 picks in 2011, and five of the top 60 picks in 2012. Like the Rays, the Jays whiffed on 2011. But in 2012, they took a guy named Marcus Stroman at No. 22. In 2010, they took Aaron Sanchez at No. 34, Noah Syndergaard at No. 38, and Asher Wojciechowski (who, along with 2011’s No. 46 pick, Joe Musgrove, was traded for J.A. Happ and others in 2012) at No. 41.
If the Rays ended up with a player like that, maybe they wouldn’t be back in the position they’re in right now, just trying to keep their heads above water in the brutal AL East. In a division where four of the five teams can realistically run a payroll above $150 million (even though the Blue Jays and Orioles don’t go that high), a team like the Rays needs to exploit the unique advantages they may have. They whiffed on one of those advantages in 2011, and have been playing catch-up ever since.
