The second round of the 2016 NBA Playoffs is under way. Some of the matchups began over the weekend, while others are set to tip off early this week.
With that in mind, and in honor of the recently-completed Passover, here are four key questions for the four second-round playoff battles.
1. Can the Thunder’s iso-heavy offense produce clean looks against the Spurs?
Nothing worked for OKC in Game 1 against the Spurs, on either side of the ball. The effort wasn’t there.
Example of the Thunder's lazy transition defense — KD turnover, then he and Ibaka jog back pic.twitter.com/XcCcLFl7o0
— Anthony Slater (@anthonyVslater) May 1, 2016
Defensive assignments were blown. LaMarcus Aldridge was able to do whatever he wanted from wherever he wanted. The Spurs shot 60 percent from the field and had 39 assists (!) on 51 baskets compared. They turned the ball over just eight times and were able to wipe the floor with the Thunder, 124-92. And really, it wasn’t even that close.
OKC is not a particularly good defensive team — Billy Donovan’s crew ranked 12th in points allowed per possession during the regular season — but one has to believe that the effort will improve over the next few games. Or at least that the Spurs will start misfiring a bit on some of their jumpers.
The real issue for the Thunder will be on the offensive end. The Spurs have one of the best defenses in league history. They surrendered a league-low 96.6 points per 100 possessions during the regular season. They have the NBA’s two-time reigning Defensive Player of the Year in Kawhi Leonard. Danny Green is one of the league’s top perimeter defenders. And of course, Tim Duncan is still there manning the back line.
The Thunder have two brilliant scorers, but overall, the team’s offense is stale. No squad threw fewer passes per game this season, according to NBA.com’s player tracking data, and only eight teams ran isolation plays more frequently. This stat from Game 1 tells you all you need to know.
Shots off 0 passes in Game 1
Thunder 20
Spurs 9Shots off 5+ passes in Game 1
Thunder 1
Spurs 8— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) May 1, 2016
That style of play is not going to work against the Spurs. Normally, the Thunder could rely on offensive rebounds to boost their scoring numbers. But only two teams allowed opponents to rebound a lower percentage of their misses this year than San Antonio.
To get back into the series, OKC is going to need monster games from Durant and Westbrook — the type of performances that allow all those isolations plays to pay off — or some role player to make the Spurs pay for over-helping. Of course, neither of those scenarios seem likely, which is why San Antonio should have no issue advancing to the Conference Finals.
Kevin Love's turn to hit from downtown! #CavsNation #Cavs #Pistons #NBA (Vine by @CavsNationNet) https://t.co/EBDQZ12DTj
— yuria (@y____uria) April 23, 2016
2. How will the Hawks defend LeBron James?
Sometimes, the keys are simple and that’s certainly the case in this series. The Cavaliers are coming off an impressive first-round sweep over the Pistons, one in which they unveiled a killer small-ball lineup featuring Kevin Love at center. Cleveland’s ball movement was exceptional. Also, the Big 3 of Kyrie Irving, Love and LeBron has never looked more comfortable sharing the ball.
But Atlanta’s defense is lightyears ahead of Detroit’s. It ranked second in the league during the regular season in points allowed per 100 possessions and was fourth in the NBA in forcing turnovers. Perhaps even more noteworthy: no one was better at contesting shots at the rim, per NBA.com’s tracking data.
All that could come into play this series against the Cavaliers. The Hawks might not have a classic LeBron stopper — Paul Millsap doesn’t have the quickness while Thabo Sefolosha doesn’t have the strength — but remember: head coach Mike Budenholzer was a part of that Spurs’ coaching staff that briefly flummoxed James in the Finals three years ago by walling off the paint, going under every screen and daring him to shoot jumpers. LeBron struggled from the perimeter all season and has yet to find the range in the playoffs.
Part of what makes this Cleveland team so dangerous is its depth and plethora of weapons. But it does seem like there could at least be some interesting avenues for the Hawks’ defense to take in an attempt to slow down the Cavaliers’ attack.
3. Can the Blazers’ explosive backcourt solve the Warriors’ switch-happy defense?
Damian Lillard and C.J. McCollum are two of the best pick-and-roll point guards in the league. McCollum is a strong and versatile scorer. Lillard is sort of a Steph Curry lite. He’s dynamic off the dribble and can launch jumpers from five feet behind the three-point line. Go under the screen and Lillard will pull up from deep. Go over and he’ll turn the corner. Switch and he’ll use his quickness to take his big man off the dribble.
That is, unless the “big man” is Draymond Green. By now, you should be familiar with the role Green plays for the Warriors and how he anchors their stout defense. Because he’s so quick and strong and adroit he’s able to guard anyone floor, from opposing centers to point guards. The Warriors like to switch on pick-and-rolls and can get away with it because of Green’s uncanny ability to stick with jitterbugs on the perimeter.
The @warriors defeat @TrailBlazers in #WARRIORSvBLAZERS Game 1, through the lens of our slo-mo #PhantomCam! https://t.co/Fupfwk5hNP
— NBA (@NBA) May 2, 2016
That was certainly the case in Golden State’s impressive 118-106 Game 1 home win over the Blazers on Sunday. Lillard finished with 30 points, but was just 8-of-26 from the field. McCollum connected on just five of his 17 field goal attempts. All this was by design, too. Golden State opened the game with lead-footed center Andrew Bogut on Blazers forward Moe Harkless — just a 28 percent three-point shooter — and Green on Mason Plumlee, Portland’s most effective screener.
The result: any time Plumlee set a screen, Green was able to effortlessly switch onto Lillard with the rest of the defense not missing a beat. Plumlee doesn’t have the post skills to take advantage of a mismatch on Shaun Livingston or Klay Thompson. And because he didn’t have to worry about Harkless beating him from the outside, Bogut was able to help guard the rim.
During the regular season, Lillard hit an impressive 51 percent of his shots near the rim, according to NBA.com. On Sunday he was just 4-of-12. With Curry out, Golden State’s offense isn’t what it was during the regular season. But the defense can be just as effective. The Blazers are going to have to figure out some answers if they plan on pulling off the upset.
Tough. https://t.co/3E2VUvVZV1
— NBA on TNT (@NBAonTNT) May 2, 2016
4. Can Kyle Lowry get his groove back?
It’s been a tough postseason for Kyle Lowry. Which, unfortunately for the Raptors, is nothing new. Lowry has now played in 30 career playoff games. In those contests, he’s shooting 35 percent from the field. Those struggles continued in Round 1 against the Pacers, who held the Raptors point guard to 14.3 points per game. By Game 7, Lowry wasn’t even looking for his shot. He played passive and was often clumsy. Toronto needed backup Cory Joseph running the show, especially in Game 7 when Lowry was just 5-for-14.
That might have (kind of) worked against the erratic Pacers. But it’s not going to fly in the second round against a loaded Heat team. Miami has multiple weapons and knows how to get good looks in crunch time. The Raptors have yet to show any sort of poise down the stretch. A lot of that has to do with Lowry’s struggles. If that continues, all that celebrating currently taking place in Toronto will be short-lived.
