The Indiana Pacers walked off the floor on Sunday as victims of a first-round playoff sweep at the hands of the defending champion Cleveland Cavaliers. After finishing the season a respectable 42-40, Indiana hung tight with LeBron James and Co., losing every game by single digits. But losses are losses, and the Pacers have collected bunches of them in the NBA Playoffs these last two years.
This year, a sweep vs. the Cavs. Last year, they fell to the Raptors (also in the first round). The year before, Indiana failed to make the playoffs in an injury-plagued 2014-15 campaign.
Is it time for the franchise to take stock and potentially pursue a rebuild for the first time since the 1980s?
The Pacers may have fallen a bit since Reggie Miller’s heyday, but the franchise still has yet to truly tear the thing down in the years since his retirement. Rick Carlisle’s teams had promise, until they didn’t, and the nucleus imploded before being shipped off for enough spare parts to stay in the playoff hunt.
Jim O’Brien’s seasons (2007-10) saw Indiana miss the postseason every year, but they were never that far out of it in the downtrodden Eastern Conference either. Frank Vogel’s arrival brought them immediate respectability, and two trips to the conference finals. Paul George’s gruesome Team USA injury exposed the fact that his franchise’s foundation beyond him was questionable. They haven’t really recovered since, despite Nate McMillan being brought in to do just that in replacing Vogel this season.
It’s not as if the Pacers were a poor team in 2016-17. They were just… average.
Indiana was 15th in points per game, 14th in opponent points per game, 18th in pace, 15th in offensive rating, 16th in defensive rating — literally the definition of an average team. The Pacers’ 42-40 record was one win above winning half of their games. The season was middle-of-the-pack by every measure.
Now what of the roster that got them there?
It appears to be firmly in between eras. A mix of pricey veterans, some scattered youth and a whole lot in the middle.
Of the team’s five leading scorers, three are guaranteed to be on the roster next season. The 30-year-old C.J. Miles could take his player option at $4.77 million, but could also test free agency with the rising salary cap. Jeff Teague was an affordable $8 million this year, but that contract’s up. If he comes back, it’ll be at a premium. If he departs, that also creates a large hole at the point guard spot that Joe Young won’t be able to fill.
Paul George and Myles Turner may reflect the way forward for the franchise, or perhaps different approaches entirely. Turner’s just 21, but looks like a center Indiana can bank on after he averaged 14.5 points and 7.3 rebounds this year. George, despite perceptions he’s been around so long, is only 26, and just averaged 23.7 points per game.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3Z2Qehh18Cc
But who fits in around them? Thaddeus Young put in quality work this past season (11 points, six rebounds per game), but could opt out after making $12.9 million next year. He could also decide to take his player option and then make close to $14 million.
Monta Ellis and Al Jefferson will make a combined $20 million next year as their respective skill sets continue to decline. Ellis has a player option for 2018-19 he’ll likely pick up, while Jefferson’s team option seems unlikely to be green-lit for that same season.
There’s a glut of youth beneath this players too, but at the wrong positions. Glen Robinson III won’t get past Ellis or fellow veteran Lance Stephenson on the depth chart. Georges Niang plays the same position as George. Rakeem Christmas is still inexperienced and stuck behind several power forwards. There’s little center depth beyond Turner and as mentioned, point guard is pretty barren.
So is this team contending or rebuilding?
Turner, Robinson, Niang and Joe Young are the only players under 25 on the roster, but Niang and Young still need more time to develop. George is a 26-year old with a lot of mileage on him. The guards are either old or about to leave the roster.
https://youtu.be/s0sCjVwTyyE
Even if everyone stuck around next year, could you really imagine this team overtaking the Cavs? Or Celtics, Raptors, Wizards, Hawks or Bucks? Hell, the Heat could’ve knocked the Pacers down to the eight-seed if Dion Waiters hadn’t gotten injured right before the stretch run.
As it stands, the Pacers have close to $70 million committed for next season, and most of that’s on four players — two of which (Jefferson, Ellis) are likely to see declining minutes. Given the money Teague’s likely to command, he’s either gone, or pushing this team toward $90 million combined on just five salaries.
If Indiana was ever going to commit to a rebuild, now might be the time. You can probably deal Jefferson, Stephenson and a few others for picks, though you may just have to eat Ellis’s contract at the same time. George is unlikely to ever fetch more in trade talks than he would right now. And if the Pacers can’t find a way to contend next year, he may opt out anyway for a max deal elsewhere.
The Pacers need to face what they are: an average team with aging personnel, who are blocking the way from a true rebuild and resurgence. Turner is a potential future All-Star. There are other young players already on the roster around him. When his own free agency arrives in a few years, wouldn’t this franchise like to appear situated for the future?
Come 2019/2020, LeBron and the Cavs will likely be on the way back down to earth, and perhaps the Warriors will be, too. The stars who have come to define the NBA today will be aging and making way for a new guard of big names throughout the league. Indiana has a shot to lead the charge there and time its upswing accordingly. Now the question is whether or not they’ll take the opportunity seriously.
