Gonzaga and North Carolina face off in the college basketball national championship game on Monday, and the Tar Heels open as 2-point favorites:
NCAA Title Game
North Carolina -2 over Gonzaga pic.twitter.com/tP7Lb53lL8
— RJ Bell (@RJinVegas) April 2, 2017
And while that’s not at all surprising, it’s interesting given that the advanced metrics see the game going the other way.
FiveThirtyEight gives Gonzaga a 62% chance to win the game:
Our March Madness win probability for Monday night's championship game is live:
— FiveThirtyEight (@FiveThirtyEight) April 2, 2017
And ESPN’s Basketball Power Index gives the Bulldogs a 58.8% chance to win:
Our Basketball Power Index gives Gonzaga a 58.8% chance to beat North Carolina on Monday night
— ESPN Stats & Info (@ESPNStatsInfo) April 2, 2017
Additionally, Ken Pomeroy’s ratings — the crown jewel of college hoops metrics — have Gonzaga as the clear top team in the country, while North Carolina slots in at third.
But Vegas certainly does their research too. A lot of research.
Really all that the Vegas/metrics disagreeing tells us is that the game should be viewed pretty evenly, and that’s what you’d expect in a national championship game between two No. 1 seeds. It should be a fun one.