Each week, before the college football rankings come out, we at The Comeback will give you a look at our predictions for upcoming rankings. These aren’t just based on our opinion of what the Top 25 and College Football Playoff rankings will look like. It’s also based on trends regarding how the voters and CFP committee have treated similar teams in the past.
Here’s the outlook on the College Football Playoff Rankings after Week 10 action, which saw several top teams lose and threw what was once a clear Playoff picture into upheaval.
Biggest risers
USC (No. 20 to No. 14)
USC was left for dead after starting the season 1-3, but while nobody has been paying attention, the Trojans quietly put together a five-game winning streak with a win over Colorado. They improved that to six straight games with a resounding, 26-13 win at Washington. USC has talent and is starting to show it’s for real.
Louisville (No. 6 to No. 3)
Louisville is in a fairly enviable position: Win out and the Cardinals probably won’t win their division, but they might still make the College Football Playoff. Given how little the committee seems to care for Washington, Louisville looks to be in pretty good shape.
Ohio State (No. 5 to No. 2)
Ditto Louisville, but the Buckeyes are in even better shape. Win out and they won’t go to the Big Ten title game, unless Penn State falls to Michigan State. But they will have another great win on their resume, against Michigan, and they aren’t likely to fall three spots to in place of conference champions.
Biggest fallers
Virginia Tech (No. 14 to No. 24)
The committee has been very hot and cold on Virginia Tech this year, and losing handily to Georgia Tech is just about as cold as it comes. The Hokies looked like they had a decent shot at a New Year’s Six bowl, and while that’s still possible with an upset win in the ACC title game, it’s much less likely now.
Texas A&M (No. 8 to No. 15)
The committee absolutely loves Texas A&M. The Aggies were ranked ahead of Washington in the first rankings, despite having a loss, and then only dropped to No. 8 after losing to an awful Mississippi State team. They just lost again to Ole Miss, so you’d think they’d drop some more, but you can never really say with this committee. I’m going with the rational outcome.
Washington (No. 4 to No. 6)
It wasn’t a big fall numerically, but Washington is in a very tough position. The Huskies will be ranked behind two teams that have a good chance to make the Playoff even without winning their division, and two others that still have an easy path to the Playoff with a conference championship. Does a conference championship give the Huskies the edge over Louisville and Ohio State? Given how unfriendly this committee has been to Washington, it’s far from a sure thing.
Projected rankings
- Alabama (no change from previous College Football Playoff rankings)
- Ohio State (+3)
- Louisville (+3)
- Clemson (-2)
- Michigan (-2)
- Washington (-2)
- Wisconsin (no change)
- Penn State (+2)
- Oklahoma (+2)
- Colorado (+2)
- Utah (+4)
- Oklahoma State (+1)
- West Virginia (+3)
- USC (+6)
- Texas A&M (-7)
- Auburn (-7)
- Florida State (+1)
- Nebraska (+1)
- LSU (+4)
- Western Michigan (+1)
- Boise State (+1)
- Washington State (+1)
- Virginia Tech (-9)
- North Carolina (-7)
- Troy (+1)
5 games to watch next week
1. No. 23 Washington State at No. 10 Colorado
Washington State-Colorado is a game of the week! Welcome to 2016! These two teams have proven they’re for real this year, and this game could go a long way toward deciding a New Year’s Six Bowl bid.
2. No. 9 Oklahoma at No. 13 West Virginia
The Big 12 almost certainly isn’t getting a Playoff team this year, but the league still has some strong teams. This game will likely decide who wins the conference and lands in the Sugar Bowl. Oklahoma was written off early in the season after losses to Houston and Ohio State, but the Sooners are quietly putting together a great year. West Virginia has had to sweat out some wins in recent weeks, but the Mountaineers can shut up any critics with a win against the Sooners.
3. No. 3 Louisville at Houston
Houston has had a disappointing year, but the Cougars are still very capable of pulling a great game out of their hat, especially at home. Louisville needs this win to keep its Playoff hopes alive, and the Cardinals would do well to win big to prove themselves in lieu of a conference championship game.
4. No. 2 Ohio State at Michigan State
Ohio State prooooooobably isn’t going to lose to Michigan State. But if Iowa can beat Michigan, anything is possible. These games down the stretch involving highly-ranked teams all are important now, especially considering the Buckeyes likely only have two more games to prove themselves.
5. No. 12 Oklahoma State at TCU
Watch this, I guess? It isn’t a great slate of games, since this is the week the entire SEC decides to play teams from the Southern Conference. Oklahoma State is ranked well, but the Cowboys haven’t played that tough of a schedule, and they’ve squeaked out some wins. TCU can throw the Big 12 race into even further chaos.
