BLACKSBURG, VA – SEPTEMBER 24: in the first half at Lane Stadium on September 24, 2016 in Blacksburg, Virginia. Virginia Tech defeated East Carolina 35-7. (Photo by Michael Shroyer/Getty Images)

Each week, before the college football rankings come out, we at The Comeback will give you a look at our predictions for upcoming rankings. These aren’t just based on our opinion of what the Top 25 will look like. It’s also based on trends regarding how the voters have treated similar teams in the past.

Here’s the outlook on college football’s rankings after Week 5 action.

Biggest risers

Virginia Tech (No. 25 to No. 14)

Despite playing on the edge of a hurricane, Virginia Tech turned in arguably the performance of the week, walloping No. 17 North Carolina, 34-3. The Hokies might have their best team in years under new coach Justin Fuente, and they’re getting better and better by the week. We might have our new favorite in the ACC Coastal.

Florida State (No. 23 to No. 13)

It wasn’t pretty, as Florida State fell into a 13-0 hole against rival Miami, and barely held on thanks to a missed extra point. But it was one of the most impressive wins of the week among all ranked teams and helped the Seminoles reassert themselves as one of the top teams in the ACC, even after last week’s loss to North Carolina.

Western Michigan (unranked to No. 21)

ROW THE BOAT ALL THE WAY TO THE TOP 25! Thanks to Houston’s loss to Navy, Western Michigan has a chance to be the Group of Five’s representative in the New Year’s Six bowls. It will take a little bit of luck — it probably means both Boise State and Houston have to lose again — but the Broncos are in decent shape if they can finish the season undefeated.

Biggest fallers

Stanford (No. 15 to unranked)

Stanford came into the season with a lofty ranking, thanks to its previous success. But the Cardinal’s offensive line was weakened with departures, and they were breaking in a new quarterback after the departure of Kevin Hogan. And it seems they were just a tad (OK, a lot) overrated. A week after losing 44-6 to Washington, Stanford was drubbed, 42-16, at home against Washington State. It’s going to take a lot for the Cardinal to sniff the top 25 again this season.

Houston (No. 6 to No. 17)

Houston got a lot of credit for its win over inconsistent Oklahoma and its success last year, and the Cougars deserved that. But there was evidence to show they weren’t quite a top 10 team. The advanced statistical S&P+ ratings rated them 16th going into this week. That suspicion was confirmed in a 46-40 loss to Navy, in which the defense showed its holes and the offense displayed its sometimes erratic play. Houston can still make the New Year’s Six, but a win over Louisville in November looks less likely than before.

North Carolina (No. 17 to unranked)

North Carolina had the chance to make a statement after beating Florida State on the road last week. Instead, the Tar Heels fell flatter than anyone thought possible, losing 34-3 to Virginia Tech at home. The Hokies have a good team, but that kind of loss will drop you out of the top 25 in a hurry.

Projected rankings

  1. Alabama (no change from previous AP poll)
  2. Ohio State (no change)
  3. Clemson (no change)
  4. Michigan (no change)
  5. Washington (no change)
  6. Texas A&M (+3)
  7. Louisville (no change)
  8. Wisconsin (+3)
  9. Nebraska (+3)
  10. Baylor (+3)
  11. Ole Miss (+3)
  12. Tennessee (-3)
  13. Florida State (+10)
  14. Virginia Tech (+11)
  15. Oklahoma (+5)
  16. Miami (-6)
  17. Houston (-11)
  18. Florida (+2)
  19. Boise State (no change)
  20. Utah (+4)
  21. Western Michigan (+5)
  22. Auburn (+4)
  23. Arkansas (-7)
  24. LSU (+2)
  25. North Dakota State (+1)

5 games to watch next week

1. No. 1 Alabama at No. 12 Tennessee

Tennessee’s incredibly lucky run almost continued against Texas A&M, thanks to the Aggies’ fumble into the endzone that sent the game to overtime, but a Joshua Dobbs interception in double overtime sealed the Vols’ first loss of the season. This team is talented enough to keep it close with Alabama, but it can’t make the same mistakes it’s made through the first six games of the season.

2. No. 2 Ohio State at No. 8 Wisconsin

Wisconsin is riding off the momentum of wins over LSU and Michigan State, but the former came when LSU was struggling to do anything on offense and the latter doesn’t look nearly as impressive after MSU’s back-to-back losses to Indiana and BYU. However, if the defense can keep Ohio State’s offense in check (a tall task, to be sure), then the Badgers could steal an upset win in Madison.

3. No. 9 Nebraska at Indiana

Nebraska is undefeated, but the Huskers have had scares against Illinois, Oregon, Wyoming and Fresno State, though they eventually pulled away from the latter two. This will be the toughest test yet for Nebraska against a pesky Indiana team that beat Michigan State and gave Ohio State a game into the second half in Columbus. Want a potential upset pick? This is your game.

4. No. 11 Ole Miss at No. 23 Arkansas

The SEC West is Alabama’s to lose, but there’s still room to jockey for New Year’s Six bowl positioning behind the Crimson Tide. Both of these teams have great offenses and some solid wins this season. Ole Miss, in particular, is in good shape to contend for a top bowl game with a win.

5. NC State at No. 3 Clemson

NC State is fresh off a win over Notre Dame and appears to be a pretty decent team. Also, great things happen when the Wolfpack play third-ranked ACC contenders.

About Kevin Trahan

Kevin mostly covers college football and college basketball, with an emphasis on NCAA issues and other legal issues in sports. He is also an incoming law student. He's written for SB Nation, USA Today, VICE Sports, The Guardian and The Wall Street Journal, among others. He is a graduate of Northwestern University.