Each week, before the college football rankings come out, we at The Comeback will give you a look at our predictions for upcoming rankings. These aren’t just based on our opinion of what the Top 25 will look like. It’s also based on trends regarding how the voters have treated similar teams in the past.
Here’s the outlook on college football’s rankings after Week 6 action.
Biggest risers
Arkansas (No. 22 to No. 17)
Arkansas has been a nice surprise team this year. While the Razorbacks won’t win the SEC West, having lost to Texas A&M and Alabama, they firmly established themselves as the third-best team in that division, beating Ole Miss in a shootout. Look for Arkansas to keep climbing up the rankings as the schedule loosens up.
Michigan (No. 4 to No. 2)
This wasn’t a massive rise numerically, but Michigan gets a big symbolic boost in a week when it didn’t even play. The Wolverines have looked dominant all season, and certainly look like the second-best team in the country after Ohio State and Clemson were lucky to escape with wins.
North Carolina (unranked to No. 22)
North Carolina can’t seem to figure itself out. The Tar Heels were blown out by Virginia Tech last week, and they lost the season-opener to Georgia, but they’ve also beaten Florida State and Miami. The latter happened this week, and that helps North Carolina get back into the top 25… for now.
Biggest fallers
Miami (No. 16 to No. 25)
I’m not sure Miami deserves to drop nine spots after a hard-fought loss to North Carolina. But the Hurricanes weren’t getting a lot of credit from the pollsters for their impressive play earlier in the year, and without a true signature win, they could drop fairly far.
Virginia Tech (No. 17 to No. 23)
Coming off a massive blowout win? Want to keep the momentum going? Great, then don’t lose to Syracuse.
Tennessee (No. 9 to No. 15)
Technically, Ole Miss dropped more, but we learned more about Tennessee this week. The Volunteers were extraordinarily lucky to win their first five games of the season, and they were lucky to only lose in overtime to Texas A&M last week. UT wasn’t punished at all by the pollsters for that loss, but they’ll take a tumble after a 49-10 destruction at the hands of Alabama. If the rest of the country weren’t so mediocre, the fall would be even worse.
Projected rankings
- Alabama (no change from previous AP poll)
- Michigan (+2)
- Ohio State (-1)
- Clemson (-1)
- Washington (no change)
- Texas A&M (no change)
- Louisville (no change)
- Nebraska (+2)
- Wisconsin (-1)
- Baylor (+1)
- Florida State (+3)
- Boise State (+3)
- Houston (no change)
- Tennessee (-5)
- Florida (+3)
- West Virginia (+4)
- Arkansas (+5)
- Ole Miss (-6)
- Utah (+2)
- Western Michigan (+4)
- Auburn (+2)
- North Carolina (+4)
- Virginia Tech (-6)
- Colorado (+2)
- Miami (-9)
5 games to watch next week
https://vine.co/v/5HqVHrhnJXn
1. No. 6 Texas A&M at No. 1 Alabama
This one will likely decide who wins the SEC West, and it could also determine the SEC’s College Football Playoff fate. Alabama should roll to the Playoff, but if the Aggies win this game, the path gets a little more interesting, as they probably will have trouble running the table. Could the SEC get left out altogether if A&M wins? It’s possible.
2. No. 17 Arkansas at No. 21 Auburn
Not a whole lot at stake in this game in terms of the conference race, other than third place in the SEC West, but this game could go a long way toward New Year’s Six bowl positioning. Also, it should be a good game between two fun teams that have overachieved this year.
3. No. 9 Wisconsin at Iowa
Wisconsin has looked solid most of the season, and it played both Michigan and Ohio State close, but the Badgers are still 1-2 in the Big Ten, and this game against Iowa is a must-win for their Big Ten West hopes. The Badgers have also had some letdown games this year (see: Georgia State) and they can’t afford that against Iowa. The advanced stats see this as a toss-up.
4. NC State at No. 7 Louisville
NC State has done well for itself this year, and the Wolfpack should have beaten Clemson this week, missing a potential 33-yard game-winning field goal as time expired. They might be able to give Louisville a run, as well.
5. BYU at No. 12 Boise State
Boise State has the inside track to the Group of Five conferences’ New Year’s Six bid, but the Broncos fall behind Houston and possibly Western Michigan with a loss. BYU started the season slowly but has back-to-back wins against Michigan State and Mississippi State. The Cougars could give Boise a run for its money.
